A change is on the horizon for Baylor football unless Dave Aranda’s Bears win more games than they lose in 2024. The schedule makes visions of a seven- or eight-win season feel like a tough hill to climb. The good news about a Big 12 conference infested with parity is that Baylor is talented enough to win most of the games on the docket. The bad news, however, is that the Bears can lose all those games just as easily. In a season of coin flips, Aranda needs to come out on the right side more often than not. 

BAYLOR BEARS

2023 record: 3-9 
2024 record prediction: 5-7 

BIGGEST GAME – at Texas Tech on Oct. 19 

Fair or not, the Aranda era is judged against what Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders are doing, at least for the last two seasons. The Bears drubbed Texas Tech in the 2022 meeting in Lubbock but fell to its old Southwest Conference foe in Waco during a season to forget inside of McLane Stadium. The trajectory at Tech is facing upwards, at least in terms of perception. Beating them on the road and improving to 2-1 against the Red Raiders with McGuire at the helm would quiet some noise and serve as a springboard into the final month of the regular season. 

TRAP GAME – vs. Air Force on Sept. 14 

Sandwiched between trips to Utah (in a weird non-conference game against a conference opponent) and a visit to Deion Sanders’ Colorado is a home game against Air Force. Baylor lost to Air Force in the 2022 bowl game. The margins are razor thin for Baylor in 2024 and that requires the team to win the games its favored in, including at home against Air Force. The Bears didn’t beat an FBS at home last year in seven tries. Lose to Air Force and the Baylor record could be 2-3 or even 1-4 by the end of September. 

UPSET ALERT – at Utah on Sept. 7 

Playing Utah at the beginning of the season is advantageous for Baylor. The Utes can start slow and the coaching staff won’t have as much tape on a Bears squad with a new offensive coordinator and Aranda back calling plays on defense. Week 2 is the perfect time for an ambush. 

FULL SCHEDULE 

Aug. 31                 Tarleton State                  
Sept. 7                  at Utah                                  
Sept. 14                Air Force                              
Sept. 21                at Colorado                       
Sept. 28                BYU                                           
Oct. 5                    at Iowa State                    
Oct. 19                  at Texas Tech                   
Oct. 26                  Oklahoma State            
Nov. 2                   TCU                                          
Nov. 16                 West Virginia                    
Nov. 23                 at Houston                         
Nov. 30                 Kansas