BAYLOR BEARS 

2023 finish: 3-9
Off. PPG: 23.1 (100th in FBS)
Def. PPG: 33.3 (116th in FBS)
Key losses: DL Gabe Hall, DL TJ Franklin, OL Gavin Byers, OL Clark Barrington, TE Drake Dabney, QB Blake Shapen 
New faces: 23 signees; 9 transfers
Top additions: QB Dequan Finn (Toledo), WR Ashtyn Hawkins (Texas State), TE Michael Trigg (Ole Miss), S Kendrick Simpkins (Western Kentucky), OL Omar Aigbedion (Montana State)

OFFENSIVE OVERVIEW 

Goodbye wide zone, and hello air raid ... or Bear Raid, rather.

Baylor made a drastic change at offensive coordinator by replacing Jeff Grimes’ run-first scheme with Jake Spavital’s high-tempo, spread attack. The Bears liked to run the ball, use play-action, and create mismatches with tight ends under Grimes. They’ll emphasize quick throws and short passes to create one-on-one matchups in the passing game. Toledo transfer Dequan Finn was brought in to engineer the new offense after throwing for more than 7,000 yards and rushing for over 1,000 in five seasons in the MAC. 

Finn won’t lack weapons. The backfield is stacked and Spavital won’t abandon the run. He’ll rely on Dominic Richardson, Dawson Pendergrass and Richard Reese to create balance. The wide receiver core of Ketron Jackson, Hal Presley and Monaray Baldwin added Texas State transfer Ashtyn Hawkins to the fold. Josh Cameron and former four-star recruit Armani Winfield will also play a role. The offensive line added transfer guards Kurt Danneker and Omar Aigbedion to the mix. 

Breakout candidates

RB Dawson Pendergrass – Reese and Richardson received the preseason hype last season, but Pendergrass is the player to watch heading into 2024. He led Baylor running backs with 26 catches for 199 yards and two touchdowns as a freshman. That’ll serve him well in Spav’s offensive style. He averaged 4.3 yards a carry and scored a team-high five rushing touchdowns. 

WR Hal Presley – The Baylor wide receivers likely jumped for joy when Spavital was hired. Expect the entire unit to produce more in 2024. Presley is primed for a breakout season after missing the last half of 2023 with an injury. He was an honorable mention All-Big 12 selection in 2022 as a sophomore. 

WR Ashtyn Hawkins – Baylor fans won’t need to an introduction to Hawkins, who caught 5 passes for 58 yards in the Texas State win over the Bears to start last season. He played for Spavital when the new Baylor OC was the head coach of the 'Cats. The two reunite in Baylor, and it wouldn’t shock us if Hawkins became a go-to receiver for Finn.  

Key unit 

Wide receiver – Say what you want about Blake Shapen and the Baylor offense last season, but he didn’t get a ton of help from his receivers. No Bear caught more than 38 passes or five touchdowns. Two of the team’s top four receivers played tight end. Spavital’s offense requires quick, sure-handed receivers who can make a play after the catch. Baldwin and Hawkins should thrive. If Jackson, Cameron and Presley take the next step, watch out. 

Biggest question mark 

Is Finn the difference maker? 

The Dave Aranda tenure at Baylor is devoid of a star quarterback, even in the 12-win 2021 season that ended in a Big 12 and Sugar Bowl championships. Gerry Bohanon was gritty and tough. Blake Shapen was solid. But Dequan Finn can be a star. The dual threat accounted for nearly 9,000 total yards and 90 touchdowns in his five-year career at Toledo. He was the MAC MVP in 2023 and brings 32 career starts to Baylor.

DEFENSIVE OVERVIEW 

Aranda is known in college football coaching circles as a defensive guru. His unit helped LSU win a national title in 2019 and led Baylor to a Big 12 championship and school-record 12 wins in 2021. That defense allowed 18.3 points per game and forced 27 turnovers. The 2023 version of Baylor’s defense gave up 33.3 points and only recorded 16 turnovers. Teams scored 11 more rushing touchdowns against Baylor in 2023 than in 2021 and converted on third down 10 percent more.

In short, Aranda must fix his side of the fence. He knows that, so he’s moved back to a familiar and comfortable role – calling the defense. The unit is a mixed bag of experienced faces and newcomers. Aranda would admittedly prefer to develop than rent. The linebacker duo of Matt Jones and Mike Smith Jr. leads the way. Cornerback Caden Jenkins and nickel Carl Williams starred in the secondary. The Bears need to get better at big plays, however. They ranked 118th nationally in sacks per game with 1.5 and 112th in interceptions with seven.

Breakout candidates

DL Trey Wilson – A new group of big men need to step up along the Baylor odd-man front. Wilson, a former three-star from Lakeview Centennial in Garland, played in 11 games, mostly on special teams, recording seven tackles, including two for loss and a sack.

S Cameren Jenkins – The sophomore from Lewisville transferred to Baylor after one season at UNLV. He played 13 games and recorded 32 tackles as a freshman. He is the brother of freshman All-American Caden Jenkins.

CB Tevin Williams – Some may forget that Williams started four and played in five games during an injury-plagued season. He’ll compete for the starting job at corner opposite Caden Jenkins.

Key unit 

Linebacker – The Baylor defense was at its best when Terrel Bernard and Dillon Doyle teamed up with honorary linebacker Jalen Pitre in 2021. The Bears need the lawfirm of Smith & Jones to lead a defense that struggled mightily in 2023. Smith missed most of it with an injury. Jones flourished, but he needs a tag team partner. The Bears want the defensive line to eat up blocks so the linebackers can flow and make plays. It is up to Jones and Smith to do just that. If not, this defense will struggle again.

Biggest question mark 

Pass rush - Baylor ranked 118th in the FBS with 1.5 sacks a game in 2023 alongside North Texas, Buffalo, and San Diego State. The unit ranked 5th in 2021 with 3.14 a game. The drop off is hard to ignore. Even without sacks, a strong pass rush creates so much havoc. Every level of the defense improves when the pass rush is effective. Linton transferred in from Texas Tech, and he’ll team with Randolph as the team’s most obvious pass rushers. Transfer Kendrick Simpkins was an effective pass rusher at Western Kentucky. Linebacker Matt Jones is the team’s leader in returning sacks with three.