March is for busted brackets and the return of college football, well, at least whatever is left of spring ball. All 13 FBS teams are hard at work preparing for the 2025 season. Some – like Texas and SMU – are vying to stay atop the mountain. Others – like Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor – are trying to climb the summit. In the G5, programs such as UTSA, North Texas, and Texas State enter the season with conference title hopes. And elsewhere, say Sam Houston and Rice, the first foundation blocks are being set by new coaching staffs. 

As we close out the month, here are five bold predictions for the upcoming season. We wanted these out a day before April 1 so no one confused them for April Fools shenanigans. 

1. A Texas team wins the Big 12 championship

We’re high on a trio of Big 12 teams from the Lone Star State in 2025. Baylor returns its starting quarterback, running back, top two wide receivers, and four of last year’s five starting offensive linemen. The defense added key pieces in the transfer portal to pair with stalwarts such as Keaton Thomas and Caden Jenkins. 

Texas Tech signed three potential starters along the offensive line and essentially a whole new defensive line through the transfer portal in an expensive offseason. Joey McGuire’s program also hired two new coordinators and unveiled a $252 million dollar facility upgrade. 

TCU returns Josh Hoover and a bulk of starters on both sides of the ball to a team that won six of its last seven. The Frogs’ only loss after Oct. 4 was a three-point road loss at Baylor. They added firepower at wide receiver through the transfer portal and signed the best recruiting class in the Big 12. Sonny Dykes is betting on continuity with OC Kendal Briles entering Year 3 and DC Andy Avalos returning for Year 2. 

The top of the Big 12 is always hard to predict as one Cinderella typically emerges from the pack. Last year, that was Arizona State and the Sun Devils likely enter the season as favorites alongside Kansas State and BYU. But we think a Texas team takes the title in 2025. We’re not sure if it’ll be Baylor or Texas Tech, or even TCU, but we’ll take those three over the field. 

2. The Longhorns fail to make the Final Four 

Texas has reached the semifinals of the College Football Playoff in consecutive seasons and the assumption is that quarterback Arch Manning is the missing ingredient for a national championship run. But our concerns have nothing to do with the quarterback. 

Well, not really. Texas is breaking in new starters all over the field, especially on offense as the Horns replace four starters on the offensive line, their tight end, and top two wide receivers. That’s a lot of production. With trips to Ohio State and Georgia, the margin of error is small in 2025. We’ll pick Texas to return to the CFP, but as a lower seed that won’t reach the Final Four – or whatever we’re calling it. 

3. Ten of the 13 FBS teams go bowling 

The Lone Star sent 10 teams to bowl games last year and we expect them to repeat that Herculean effort. No other state has more than eight FBS teams. Sending 10 of 13 is 77 percent. Not too shabby. Six of the seven Power Four programs should be shoe-ins for a bowl trip with Houston the only question mark. The waters are murkier at the G5 level but Texas State, UTSA, and North Texas should reach six wins. That leaves UTEP, Sam Houston, and Rice. If one of those or Houston reaches the six-win marker, 10 teams go bowling for a second straight year. 

4. North Texas wins most games in the G5  

The race to finish the year as the top G5 program in Texas likely involves three teams. Of those three teams – Texas State, North Texas, and UTSA – the Mean Green possess the easiest path. UTSA plays Texas A&M and Texas State in non-con and the AAC schedule includes trips to North Texas and South Florida as well as a home game against an Army team responsible for two of the three home losses in the Jeff Traylor tenure. Texas State travels to Arizona State and UTSA in non-con prior to a Sun Belt slate that includes Troy, Louisiana, and James Madison. 

Now, let’s look at the path for the Mean Green. The non-con schedule is home to Lamar, at Western Michigan, and home against Washington State. The AAC schedule doesn’t include Memphis or Tulane and they get the Roadrunners, Navy, and South Florida at home. A trip to Army is as tough as it gets for North Texas. If the offensive transfers hit and Skyler Cassity improves the defense, the Mean Green could win eight to 10 games.  

5. Texas A&M leads the state in rushing 

We have reservations over Texas A&M improving on its win total from last year in 2025 but the run game could carry the Aggies to nine or 10 wins if the defense improves. Colin Klein loves the running game and the offense in College Station could look a lot like his at Kansas State. Quarterback Marcel Reed is an excellent runner and he’ll be joined in the backfield by a trio of talented backs in Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels, and Reuben Owens. And the Aggies return all five starters along the offensive line and key depth pieces such as Mark Nabou, who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 last year. Texas A&M was second in the state in rushing last year behind Texas State.