Eight teams remain in the College Football Playoff entering the quarterfinal round that kicks off on New Year’s Eve when Penn State faces Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Texas kicks off the New Year in the Peach Bowl against Arizona State. The headliner is the Rose Bowl in the afternoon with Oregon and Ohio State facing off for the second time this year. Notre Dame and Georgia play in the Sugar Bowl to close out the second round of the tournament.

The Longhorns are the betting favorite at +310 to win the championship, followed by Ohio State (+330), Oregon (+480), Georgia (+480), and Penn State (+500). But the gambling line alone lacks context: Route matters. Ohio State and Oregon play each other, as does Georgia and Notre Dame. Texas is the betting favorite because the Horns face Arizona State. That’s why Penn State’s odds are higher than Notre Dame’s. The Fighting Irish face Georgia in the second round, while the Nittany Lions play Boise State. 

So, who is the best team in the field? Here is how I rank them. 

1. Ohio State

The Buckeye squad that pummeled Tennessee in the first round is the best team in college football. The good news for Ryan Day is his path to a title doesn’t include Michigan. Ohio State boasts the best scoring defense in the country and the offense is anchored by a strong running game and a budding superstar at wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith. Quarterback Will Howard is the X-Factor. If he plays three clean, solid games, the Buckeyes win it all. 

2. Oregon 

The biggest challenge for Oregon and Ohio State is the path it requires to win the championship. They play each other this week in the Rose Bowl, and then theoretically turn around and beat Texas in Arlington just to reach a title game against a team like Georgia or Notre Dame. Running the table in the modern era with NIL and the transfer portal evening out rosters while the expanded playoff requires more games than ever feels like too hard of an ask. Can the Ducks really avoid the letdown in 16 straight games? 

3. Texas 

Texas possesses the recipe to win a championship thanks to an elite defense, a stout offensive line, and an experienced quarterback. The problem is ceiling. It feels like the lack of explosive plays, and red zone inefficiency, keeps the Horns from truly being considered the odds-on favorite to win the crown. A quarterfinal matchup with Arizona State and a potential semifinal in the state of Texas helps, though. 

4. Georgia 

Ranking a team that beat Texas twice – once on the road and once at a neutral site – feels wrong, but the loss of starting quarterback Carson Beck limits the Bulldogs. It is a testament to Kirby Smart’s roster construction that Georgia remains one of the four favorites to win the national championship. Georgia's defense remains elite and it is a program that knows how to win big games. 

5. Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish are the dark horse candidate to win the chip. They face a wounded Georgia squad in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, and then would face the winner of Penn State vs. Boise State in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9. Defense and a strong running game give Notre Dame a shot. Marcus Freeman’s squad has been up for every challenge outside the upset loss in Week 2 vs. NIU.

6. Penn State 

Penn State feels like the last team with a real shot to win the national championship. Abdul Carter is an elite edge rusher. The offense proved its upside in the Big Ten loss to Oregon. The only losses this year for Penn State are Oregon and Ohio State – arguably the two best teams in the country. And the Nittany Lions are on the opposite side of the bracket. James Franklin has a reputation of not winning big games, but a trip to the semis feels like the floor due to the matchup with Boise State. 

7. Boise State 

Nothing is impossible in the new age of college football. Oregon is undefeated and Boise State pushed the Ducks to the brink in non-conference. Running back Ashton Jeanty is arguably the best player remaining in the bracket. It isn’t that Boise State can’t knock off Penn State – or any of the other teams remaining – in a one-off situation. But asking a G5 team to win three straight against the super powers of the sport feels like a fever dream. 

8. Arizona State

Arizona State shocked the Big 12 with a magical run in 2024, but will the clock strike midnight in Atlanta when the Sun Devils face Texas? Probably. But like Boise State, Arizona State can pull the upset in the quarterfinals. I’m just not sure they can continue to knock off programs with more talent and depth in consecutive weeks.