No one's giving Arizona State much of a chance against Texas. But that's nothing new for these Sun Devils, who went from predicted last place in the Big 12 to winning the conference championship. Does the dream season continue, or turn into a Burnt Orange nightmare?
Here are five games within the game that will determine the Peach Bowl's outcome.
1. Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo vs Everyone
When an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Skattebo will be the best running back Texas's vaunted defense has faced all season. He finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting and boasts a PFF grade that ranks first among all SEC running backs. But Texas's defense will be the best unit Skattebo has faced all season.
While Skattebo cannot be stopped, he can be contained. He's rushed for under 100 yards in five games this season, which included a three-point win against Texas State and losses to Cincinnatti and Texas Tech. Texas might win this game even if Skattebo runs wild; the Longhorns blow Arizona State out if he doesn't.
2. Arizona State C Leif Fautanu vs Texas DTs Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton
In front of every outstanding running back (Skattebo) is a dominant offensive lineman (First Team All-Big 12 center Leif Fautanu). Arizona State's running game is built on steady chunks that keep them ahead of the chains. The Sun Devils are 11th in the nation in rushing success rate, yet 76th in rushing explosivity rate. Those long runs Skattebo went for in the Big 12 Championship aren't likely against Texas, and Arizona State is OK with that as long as he's picking up four yards to sustain drives.
If Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton can continually beat Fautanu in the middle of the line and stop runs for no gain, or even a loss, it will be tough sledding for Arizona State's offense.
3. Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt vs Turnovers
Leavitt is the nation's highest-graded freshman player on either side of the ball, per PFF, in large part because of his sound decisions. He's tied for second in the nation with only three turnover-worthy throws all year. But Texas's defense feasts on turnovers. The Longhorns are fourth in the NCAA in HAVOC rate, with 22.2 percent of defensive plays ending in a tackle for loss, a pass breakup, a forced fumble or an interception. Arizona State can make this game interesting if Leavitt doesn't gift the Longhorns extra possessions.
4. Texas RBs Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue vs Arizona State's Front Seven
Is Texas's rushing attack fixed after Jaydon Blue and Tre Wisner both rushed for over 100 yards in the First Round, the first time two Longhorns have done so in a single game since Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks in 2022? Or did Texas just feast on a Clemson defense that ranked second to last in the ACC in rushing yards allowed per game? Longhorn fans will get the answer in the Peach Bowl when Texas's backfield goes up against an Arizona State defense that ranked second in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per game.
5. Arizona State Nickel Kyan McDonald vs the First Half
Arizona State starting nickelback Shamari Simmons will miss the first half of the Texas game for a targeting foul he committed in the second half of a 45-19 blowout in the Big 12 Championship nearly a month ago. Because of that, the Sun Devils will most likely play a freshman defensive back, Kyan McDonald, instead of a grad transfer. Can McDonald hold up for a half against Texas's slot receivers and tight end Gunnar Helm before Simmons returns?
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