SMU was left out of the College Football Playoff bracket by the committee for the second week in a row on Tuesday night when the Mustangs were ranked 13th, just outside the 12-team format. 

That’s despite the Ponies sitting alone atop the ACC standings as the conference’s only undefeated team in league play. They’re only loss is to an undefeated BYU squad that is the current favorite to win the Big 12. The rankings won’t matter if Rhett Lashlee’s team wins the ACC, but why does the margin of error need to be that slim for a team that’s currently dominating its Power Four peers? 

Miami was ranked higher than SMU in the updated bracket despite the recent loss to Georgia Tech. That means the committee believes the Hurricanes are more deserving despite a more recent loss to a worse team. It isn’t like the Ponies are squeaking by, either. They beat TCU by 22 and Pitt by 23. They beat Louisville on the road by a touchdown. The only close game was the overtime victory over Duke on the road when SMU committed six turnovers. 

Put this same SMU team with the same results and performances in a Miami uniform and the rankings would be flipped. Miami’s best win this season is seven-point road win against Louisville. Sound familiar? The Hurricanes won by one at Cal and by four at home over Virginia Tech. Their average margin of victory against six ACC opponents is 8.66. SMU’s against five is 17.4.

The playoff was expanded under the guise of inclusion. No more invitational that only included Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson and the occasional sacrificial lamb. The 12-team model would guarantee spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions and the best G5 team. The other six spots would be at-large. 

The public bristled when the idea to guarantee three spots for the SEC and Big Ten was floated through the media, but there is no way those two conferences don’t account for at least six of the 12 spots. The team that wins the conference championship and the team that loses it in both super conferences will get a bid. So will one or two of the teams on the outside – say Alabama and Ole Miss in the SEC and Penn State in the Big Ten. 

It is even possible that the SEC and Big Ten get four each. Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State are in the running for the Big Ten. Texas, Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas A&M are still in it from the SEC. The 12-team playoff in 2024 could very well be four SEC teams, four Big Ten teams, Notre Dame, champs from the Big 12 and ACC plus the G5 representative.

Inclusive or Invitational?   

Turn on your favorite college football podcast or live-streamed show and you’ll hear about models and equations and formulas to rank teams. The data that spits back provides folly for the echo chamber. What we think will happen starts to override what has happened and the machine starts to play predictor rather than indicator. 

If Miami is better than SMU, the rest of the season will illustrate that. Either SMU will lose before the ACC championship game or in the championship game while Miami wins out. But what happens to a two-loss SMU if its only losses are to Big 12 champion BYU and ACC champion Miami? The current rankings indicate that the committee would pick a three-loss SEC team or Notre Dame or a Big Ten team that didn’t reach the conference championship like Penn State or Indiana.  

That’s bunk. No team should be punished for playing an extra game. The fourth-place team in the SEC or Big Ten shouldn’t get an invite over an ACC or Big 12 team that enters the conference championship game 11-1 or better. The same is true for BYU if the Cougars fall down the stretch. If Alabama can lose to Vanderbilt or Tennessee to Arkansas and not be eliminated, BYU should be able to stub their toe at least once. 

But the playoff was never expanded to truly be inclusive. It was expanded to throw the Tier 2 teams in the SEC and Big Ten – the Penn States and Ole Misses of the world – a bone for letting in more power programs like Oregon or Texas. It was expanded to make money. To make the right people – and conferences – money. 

Unfortunately for SMU, this might be one country club it isn’t invited to join. At least not in Year 1 as a Power Four program. Winning on the field isn’t enough. The game is one of perception, and the Ponies can’t compete against those other helmets after 40 years on Death Row.