The Red Raiders welcome the Colorado Buffaloes to Lubbock this week, but that’s not all that is coming to the Hub City. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff Show will be on campus to preview the Buffaloes and Red Raiders. The Ying Yang Twins will also be around for a concert at Raider Alley, Danny Amendola and Texas Tech’s newest Hall of Fame class will be on hand, as well as any celebrities joining Colorado’s sideline with Deion Sanders' crew. The Red Raiders will also be wearing their Patrick Mahomes galvanized uniforms this week. 

Tahj Brooks has his first legit shot to break the all-time rushing record for Texas Tech, held currently by Byron Hanspard, which has stood since 1997. He’s about 120 yards away from the record, which is suspiciously close to his season average. 

The Buffs are currently tied for second in the conference with a 4-1 Big 12 record and a 6-2 mark overall with four games remaining. Texas Tech is right behind them with a 4-2 conference record and a 6-3 mark overall, which means a win for either team keeps them in the hunt for a Big 12 title. A loss for Colorado would put them behind the 8-ball and a loss for Texas Tech would all but eliminate them from contention. 

Bottom line, there’s a lot going on in Lubbock this weekend. 

That’s all outside the lines though. Inside the lines, it’s just a couple of Heisman trophy hopefuls in Sheduer Sanders and Travis Hunter against a pass defense that, until last week, ranked as the worst in the country. The Red Raiders defense is ranked 124th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, while Colorado is 9th in the country with 306 passing yards per game. 

That doesn’t seem good for Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders rush for nearly double what Colorado does per game at around 160 yards per contest. Even digging into the per play metrics a little bit shows that Texas Tech’s offense is actually better per play than Colorado’s explosive attack, although it’s very close. Texas Tech averages 36 points per game, while Colorado averages 31 points per game. Texas Tech holds a significant advantage in the red zone, scoring on 97% of their drives inside the 20 with an automatic field goal kicker and Tahj Brooks. Colorado only scores on 86% of theirs.

On the red zone note, Texas Tech has 41 trips into the red zone with 28 touchdowns and 11 field goals. That’s a turnover on downs against ACU inside the 5-yard line and an interception against Washington State away from perfection. In Big 12 play, they are a perfect 24 of 24 with 18 touchdowns and six field goals. Colorado, in Big 12 play, has reached the red zone 23 times with 16 touchdowns, four field goals, two interceptions and one turnover on downs.

Defensively, Colorado has been much better than Texas Tech. (I’ll take a sentence I didn’t think I’d write in 2024 for $400, Alex.) It’s a fact though, the Buffs are better than Texas Tech on defense, by nearly every metric. They only allow 22 points per game, while Texas Tech opponents average 34 per game. I’d like to think that Texas Tech figured some things out against Iowa State, but Sanders, Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr., and the crew just aren’t quite the same. 

To win, Texas Tech must make Colorado even more one dimensional than they already are, but I’m not entirely sure how to do that. That’s why Tim DeRuyter makes seven figures and I do not. To my eye, the Red Raiders have been a much better defense when they’ve blitzed to generate pressure. It won’t be that simple against Sheduer Sanders, but he has been sacked 18 times in just five Big 12 games. 

I wrote all that expecting to put Colorado down as the winner, but I’ve started to change my own mind. I had the Red Raiders falling in a close one because they won’t generate the turnovers they’ll need to make a big difference. Now? Give me the Red Raiders in a barn burner 38-35. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game in the 40s either.

Traveling in for the game? Visit Lubbock has you covered for Things to Do, Can’t Miss Experiences and Where to Stay!