Is it still too early?

A little more than a month ago, I put together my way-too-early first guess at who we'll see at the 2024 UIL Texas high school football state championship games at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. It was met with widespread acclaim and everyone agreed entirely!

OK, that's not true. But it certainly started a conversation.

Now, five more weeks have passed, and we have five more weeks of information about these teams. How much has changed? How many teams have maintained their projected place in Arlington?

Let's dive in — I'll go from the smallest classification to the largest, just like the schedule will follow at the state championship games in December, and include my pick from Week 4 as well.

CLASS 1A DIVISION II
Jayton over Oglesby
Last Time: Jayton over Richland Springs
Jayton has maintained its spot at the top No. 1 in our 1A Division II rankings (and they'll stay there after finishing their regular season 10-0), so they look like the favorite. But Oglesby, after two non-district losses to Abbott and May — two unbeaten 1A Division I teams — has certainly gotten its wheels back on, and they're looking as strong as we thought they'd be in the preseason. Richland Springs has been dominant, but Oglesby's battle-tested nature gives them a small advantage.

CLASS 1A DIVISION I
Gordon over Whiteface
Last Time: Gordon over Whiteface
Nothing's changed for me. Gordon — despite coming from the rougher part of the bracket with Abbott and May (and maybe Aquilla?) — has emerged as the clear favorite to go back-to-back. Whiteface is still my favorite to come out of Region I (and probably best Westbrook in a state semifinal), but Buena Vista has established itself as a clear and present danger to the Antelopes.

CLASS 2A DIVISION II
Muenster over Shiner
Last Time: Muenster over Shiner
I wish I'd waited until literally tomorrow to write this, because Muenster's showdown with Collinsville will establish the champion of District 8-2A DII — and my pick to win Region II, and win the state championship. Right now, I think Muenster is your favorite, but a Collinsville victory would not surprise me in the least, and the winner looks like the team to beat on the left side of the bracket. And while I'm not in the self-congratulatory business, I must say that my call five weeks ago that Shiner's the team to beat on the right side of the bracket — despite starting 0-3 — is aging pretty well.

CLASS 2A DIVISION I
Ganado over Sunray
Last Time: Ganado over Stamford
Five weeks ago, I said that I felt pretty good that it'd be Region I vs. Region IV in the title game. And I still feel that way, though I'm not confident in either representative. Sunray has the best résumé (multi-score wins over Canadian, Panhandle, Abernathy, Stratford and Childress) and looks like they can handle the rough-and-tumble Region I. And I'm going to stick with Ganado in Region IV, though that Refugio vs. Ganado regional semifinal is shaping up to be absolute box-office.

CLASS 3A DIVISION II
Gunter over East Bernard
Last Time: Gunter over East Bernard
I will say this: my confidence in both of these finalists is smaller than it was five weeks ago. Gunter has righted the ship and looked like the preseason favorite, but I do think that Region II is tougher than it has been, and a regional final against Holliday and a state semifinal against Wall would be very intriguing. East Bernard is still my pick to make it from the right side of the bracket, but Poth is looking more and more dangerous, and suddenly New Diana looks like a real threat in a potential semifinal.

CLASS 3A DIVISION I
Columbus over Malakoff
Last Time: Columbus over Malakoff
A lot has changed since we did this exercise, specifically that Malakoff has risen to the No. 1 spot in the 3A DI rankings after Columbus' heart-stopping loss to Hitchcock. But the big picture, in my view, hasn't changed — Columbus remains the team to beat in 3A Division I, and I think they'd be favored in a potential regional final rematch with Hitchcock, especially considering some of the injury concerns for the Bulldogs. Malakoff has been as steady as ever, and though we'll find out a lot more about them in Week 11 when they play Winnsboro (in what could be the first of two meetings).

CLASS 4A DIVISION II
Carthage over Sinton
Last Time: Carthage over West Orange-Stark
The topline here is easy to explain: Carthage has looked like vintage Carthage, and Region II looks suddenly a bit more manageable after Pleasant Grove's win over Gilmer. But a new challenger has emerged in Region IV, and Sinton looks like the real deal. The Pirates would have to clear perennial Region IV juggernaut Wimberley in a regional final, then beat a mystery guest out of Region III in the semifinal (Waco La Vega? West Orange-Stark? Bellville? Madisonville?), but coach Michael Troutman's bunch looks like they have the stomach for the fight.

CLASS 4A DIVISION I
Celina over Kilgore
Last Time: Celina over Kilgore
I thought long and hard about this one and ended up settling on the same result. Celina has established itself, to me, as the clear team to beat in all of 4A Division I — since my first pass at this five weeks ago, the Bobcats have dominant wins over Frisco Panther Creek, Aubrey, Sulphur Springs and Paris on their ledger — but I do think a state semifinal with Stephenville will be a massive test. Their opponent was the tougher one. Kilgore has been a bit wobbly offensively in a couple of their games (including losses to Gilmer and Henderson), but the Bulldogs look like the most complete team on the right side of the bracket. A rematch with Longview Pine Tree looms large, as does a state semifinal against Austin LBJ (whom I could be convinced to take their spot), but for now, we'll still with the Ragin' Red.

CLASS 5A DIVISION II
Richmond Randle over South Oak Cliff
Last Time: Richmond Randle over Port Neches-Groves
Nothing has swayed me from being all-in on Richmond Randle. The Lions have absolutely dominated everyone in their path, and for all we talk about their offensive firepower, it's their defense that's impressed me most, allowing just 9 points per game. But I'm rolling with South Oak Cliff to make a fourth consecutive appearance at AT&T Stadium for now, if only because I've been spooked by Port Neches-Groves' play in a couple of games (too-close-for-comfort wins over Montgomery Lake Creek and Huntsville, followed by a home loss to rival Nederland). Texas High looms as well in a rough-and-tumble Region II, and don't discount Argyle in a potential semifinal. But for now, I'm going with SOC. Ask me again next week, though.

CLASS 5A DIVISION I
Aledo over A&M Consolidated
Last Time: Aledo over A&M Consolidated
Yeah, nothing to see here. Aledo does more vulnerable than they've been in a couple years, but the Bearcats still rule the 5A Division I roost until further notice. A&M Consolidated has since passed its remaining district tests and enters as the favorite in Region III, though a rematch with rival College Station and a potential semifinal date with Smithson Valley loom in the distance.

CLASS 6A DIVISION II
Humble Summer Creek over Southlake Carroll
Last Time: DeSoto over Austin Westlake
This is the toughest bracket to predict in all of Texas high school football, in my opinion. While Westlake has done nothing to dissuade me from believing they're the favorite in Region IV, Humble Summer Creek's consistent excellence — especially with its gut-wrenching loss to Atascocita — has me thinking this is the year the Bulldogs finish the job. Of course, we'll find out a lot more about them in Week 11 against Galena Park North Shore. On the other side of the bracket, it feels to me that you have three options: DeSoto, Southlake Carroll or Willis. For now, I'm going with Southlake Carroll, for two reasons. The first: consistency, as the Dragons have been excellent week in and week out. The second: they will only have to face one of either DeSoto or Willis, as those two are scheduled to meet in the regional semifinals. 

CLASS 6A DIVISION I
North Crowley over Galena Park North Shore
Last Time: North Crowley over Humble Atascocita
North Crowley has consistently looked like the best team in Region I, and while they'll have to deal with teams like Allen and Coppell, I think the Panthers are up to the task. The big question would be when they meet the other Panthers — Duncanville, the two-time defending state champs, in a potential state semifinal. I'll be honest: that's a coin-flip game, and I would absolutely not be surprised to see Duncanville win it, but I think that North Crowley's firepower and defensive playmaking give it an extremely slight edge. On the other side of the bracket, North Shore had to escape Atascocita last week with a last-second win to take command of District 23-6A, and it feels like we're careening toward another rematch — a tenth meeting since 2019. But North Shore is now 9-0 against Atascocita in that stretch, so it's hard to pick against the Mustangs. With that said, I don't think North Shore is invulnerable, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Atascocita (or Katy, or Lake Travis) play for it all.