5 CFB Questions: Does Baylor or TCU Stay Hot?

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Ready or not, we’ve arrived at Week 10 of the college football season. Every team has played at least eight games, leaving a third of the regular season left. The good news is that with an expanded playoff in 2024, a couple of teams are only halfway through the season. Conference races are heating up and bowl eligibility becomes a talking point as the calendar flips from October to November. 

The 13 FBS teams in Texas are a combined 60-45 after Sam Houston won and Texas State lost on Tuesday night. The two classes of programs – P4 vs. G5 – are living in different worlds. The seven Power Four squads are a combined 38-18. Houston is the only program below .500 heading into Week 10. The G5 squads are a combined 22-27. Sam Houston is the only one of the six currently bowl eligible. 

Four conference championship contenders remain heading into the weekend. The Longhorns and Aggies are on a collision course as both sit in striking distance of the SEC championship game. SMU is undefeated in ACC play during the Ponies’ first foray into P4 football. And the Bearkats of Sam Houston are one game back with three left to play. They control their own fate with games against Jax State and Liberty left. 

Here are our five questions heading into Week 10. 

1. Is SMU in Tier 1 or Tier 2 of the ACC?  

The two top teams in the ACC right now are Miami and Clemson. SMU could join the discussion with a win over a ranked Pitt squad on the Hilltop on Saturday night. Want an example of the disrespect? The biggest game in recent SMU history is on the ACC Network. SMU, Pitt, Miami, and Clemson sit in a four-way tie atop the standings without a conference blemish. With a bloated conference without divisions comes potential headaches, and the ACC is driving toward a cliff. SMU doesn’t play Miami or Clemson. Miami and Clemson don’t play each other. Pitt doesn’t play Miami. So, it is possible the season ends with three undefeated teams in conference play. What a mess. 

SMU became the second team in the 21st Century to win a college football game with a minus-6 turnover margin. The only other time it happened was in 2011 when Marshall beat Memphis. Everyone else is 0-124. Were the turnovers a blip or a sign of trouble ahead? Pitt returned three interceptions for touchdowns in a Week 9 win over Syracuse. Safe to say, the Mustangs must win the turnover battle to win. 

2. Does Baylor or TCU stay hot? 

Not too long ago, people were writing Dave Aranda’s obituary and wondering if Sonny Dykes was next on the chopping block. That was before Aranda’s Bears invaded Texas Tech and beat the Red Raiders by 24 and followed that with a 10-point victory over Oklahoma State. TCU has won three of its last four. Expect an old-school Big 12 shootout when these two teams meet at McLane Stadium on Saturday night. The over/under is 64.5, so Vegas agrees. Sawyer Robertson has unlocked a Baylor offense that should run with ease on TCU. The Horned Frogs lean on Josh Hoover and Savion Williams. Give me Baylor in a close one because TCU turns the ball over too much. 

3. Will Texas A&M avoid a letdown? 

Referring to a game with a three-point favorite as a trap game is disingenuous. That requires a real underdog. South Carolina is a solid team. The quarterback is a tough, scrappy dual threat that likely would’ve led a win over LSU before he was hurt. The defensive line is the best Texas A&M has faced this year, according to head coach Mike Elko. The Aggies can lose this game even if they play well. Still, the threat of sleepwalking into South Carolina is real a week after an emotional win over LSU in Kyle Field. This is typically a game Texas A&M loses, but I’m buying into the Elko Era and counting on the newly-established culture to travel. 

4. How does Texas Tech respond to heart break? 

Texas Tech blew a late two-possession lead in a road loss against TCU. Joey McGuire is now 4-10 on the road since he took over ahead of the 2022 season. A Big 12 championship is out of the cards, but there is plenty to play for in Lubbock. The problem is that the team is back on the road, this time against conference contending Iowa State. It sounds like quarterback Behren Morton will give it a go against the Cyclones after leaving the TCU game with an injury. If he can’t go, true freshman Will Hammond gets his first start. Playing in Ames, Iowa, against Matt Campbell isn’t a great way to begin your college career, however. To pull the upset, Texas Tech must lean on running back Tahj Brooks and hope the defense creates a couple of big plays. 

5. Can Houston play spoiler down stretch? 

The goal for Willie Fritz in Year 1 was to keep his team engaged through 12 games of the regular season. That sounds simple, but it isn’t that easy in transitional times, especially if there is a lot of losing involved. The Coogs have overachieved and are still in bowl contention with four games to go in the season. Winning three of the last four likely won’t happen, but it gives Fritz & Co. a carrot to chase in November. As do big tests against Kansas State this week and BYU to end the season. Houston won’t factor into the conference championship race directly, but the program can impact it by pulling an upset or two. 

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