The goalposts are moving quickly in San Marcos.

After a 49-10 thrashing of UTSA in Week Two, Texas State had an outside shot to be the Group of Five's representative in the College Football Playoff. After a stunning 40-39 loss to Sam Houston, the season's outlook was reoriented to winning the Sun Belt Championship. The Bobcats still had everything to play for, and the Playoff in GJ Kinne's second year was probably unrealistic anyway.

But dropping a game to a 2–4 Old Dominion team? Now, the SBC championship hopes are in jeopardy.

Texas State was held scoreless in the first half for the second time in the Kinne era and managed 14 points after averaging 38 points per game. A defense playing without Ben Bell allowed freshman quarterback Colton Joseph to rush for 111 yards and three touchdowns, the first 100-yard rusher Old Dominion had all season. 

Over halfway through a season that was supposed to be the best in program history, the Bobcats have instead played with their food against Lamar, beat an overhyped UTSA team, and endured a 2–3 skid.

So, the Bobcats' conference championship hopes are dashed, right? No. They've only squandered their margin for error.

The East/West division system certainly helps, as Texas State only has to have a better record than five other teams. Old Dominion is in the other division, which means Texas State won't have a tiebreaker scenario with them to make the championship game. If the Bobcats win out, they are in. They already have tiebreakers over Arkansas State and Troy. 

Texas State faces 6–1 Louisiana and 5–1 ULM in the next two weeks, both of whom are undefeated in conference play. If Texas State beats those two and then wins out, they'll have the same conference record and hold the tiebreaker to get into the championship game. However, if they lose to either of those two teams, they'll have to win out and then hope the team they lost to then loses two of its final few games.