Matchup: Texas Tech (5-1) vs. Baylor (2-4)
Date: October 19, 2024
Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas
Kickoff: 3 pm

Week eight brings Texas Tech back to the best college town in the Big 12 for a big-time conference clash against Baylor. At 2-4, Baylor’s record doesn’t exactly scare anyone, but don’t let that fool you—the Bears are potentially better than they look.

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is in his fifth year, and while it’s been a rollercoaster, he’s known for putting together disciplined, tough teams. The Bears have struggled this season, sure, but they’ve kept it close in several games and are more than capable of giving Texas Tech a real fight. They’ll come into Lubbock with nothing to lose.

Offensively, Baylor is led by former Coronado Mustang quarterback Sawyer Robertson. He’s shown flashes of being a solid playmaker, though he’s completing less than 60% of his passes. That said, he’s thrown 9 TDs to just 3 picks, so he’s not a total liability. Baylor’s run game? Inconsistent, to put it mildly. They’ve been decent against weak run defenses, but I don’t expect them to get much going against a Tech defense that’s been strong in that department. The key will be staying disciplined on Robertson, who can move but isn’t exactly a runner.

Texas Tech is sitting pretty at 5-1 and looking sharp, especially at home, where Joey McGuire has built a winning culture. Defensively, the Red Raiders’ ability to create turnovers has been a difference-maker, and Jacob Rodriguez continues to be all over the field. Before the Arizona game, the strategy was more about surviving on the back end, but since then, Tech’s defense has been bringing the fight. I expect more of that against Baylor, with Tech dialing up pressure on Robertson to force him into mistakes.

On offense, Tahj Brooks should have a big day against a Baylordefense that’s struggled against the run. Quarterback Behren Morton has been steady, taking care of the football and making plays when needed, especially at home, where the offense has been rolling. Morton hasn’t thrown an interception anywhere outside of Pullman, Washington, this season, and I expect him to keep that streak alive. Tech should be able to move the ball on the Bears, much like Iowa State did when they put up over 260 yards rushing and 270 yards passing.

While Baylor is better than their record, this is a game Texas Tech should win, especially at home. Expect a competitive first half, but I think the Red Raiders will pull away in the second half and improve to 6-1.

One wild card to keep an eye on is the weather—there’s a chance of rain in Lubbock this weekend, with predictions ranging from 40-55% during the game and temps around 70 degrees. The Jones has a turf field, so we won’t be seeing anyone slipping around in mud, but wet conditions could still impact both teams’ game plans.

The betting trends all lean toward Texas Tech covering. I’ll lean into it.

Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Baylor 24

Traveling in for the game? Visit Lubbock has you covered for Things to Do, Can’t Miss Experiences and Where to Stay!