Baylor’s heart-breaking overtime loss at Colorado in Week 4 wasn’t the final nail in Dave Aranda’s coffin as head coach of the Bears. But the home loss to BYU in Week 5 might be. Baylor is now 2-3 on the season and 0-2 in conference play to start Year 5 of the Aranda era. 

He led the Bears to a Big 12 championship and a school record 12 wins in 2021, his second season on the job. Since then, Baylor is 6-14 in the Big 12, 6-17 against Power Five programs, and 6-11 at home following the six-point loss to BYU at McLane on Saturday. 

They lost the lead five times on the road against Colorado, including a 24-10 lead with four minutes left in the first half. Against BYU, the Bears trailed 21-0 before they threw their first punch. BYU waltzed down the field on its opening possession for a touchdown, and then intercepted a tipped Sawyer Robertson pass attempt on Baylor’s first play from scrimmage. The Cougars made it 21-0 with 3:39 left in the first quarter.  

Aranda undoubtedly still has belief in the locker room, exhibited by the Bears’ fight in the second half. A team ready to quit on their head coach doesn’t battle back from 21-0 down. The effort was reminiscent of the comeback win on the road last year against UCF. Baylor lost six of its next seven after that win. 

Aranda almost lost his job after the 2023 season. A large buyout, thanks to a contract extension and raise after the 2021 Big 12 championship, and his plan to takeover defensive play calling while hiring an offensive coordinator with head coaching experience swayed the Baylor brass to run it back in 2024. So far, no good. 

Baylor’s football program has been more reactive than proactive under Aranda. He resisted the transfer portal heading into 2022 only to admit his errors and lean heavily on it ahead of 2023 and 2024. He didn’t like the impending transactional nature of NIL and stood on the sidelines as Big 12 rivals flooded the market and stacked roster talent in 2023, only to admit those errors as his assistants wore “We Pay Players” shirts in practices.

Aranda has posted a losing season in three of his four seasons as a head coach. The Bears are currently under .500. If they were to miss a bowl again this season, that would be three losing seasons in a row, something that hasn’t happened at Baylor since 2007-2009. 

The road back is hard to see. The Bears travel to Iowa State in Week 6 ahead of an idle week, where they could be 2-4 with all four losses to Big 12 competition, though the Utah defeat was technically non-conference. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and TCU await after the idle week. Baylor needs to finish 4-3 to reach six wins and get to a bowl game, and even that might not be enough to save Aranda’s job. 

He needed to win seven or eight games and provide some hope heading into 2026. The crowd at McLane Stadium suggests the fan base has run out of it. The season is too young to pull the plug, especially given the spirited effort down the stretch. Maybe they catch magic in a bottle next week on the road against Iowa State and the idle week will buoy the squad heading into the second half of the schedule. 

If the Bears return from Ames at 2-4 halfway through the 2024 mark with all four losses against Big 12 competition, it’ll be hard for Baylor to ignore the noise in the 13 days between Iowa State and a trip to Texas Tech.