Matchup: Texas Tech (3-1) vs. Cincinnati (3-1)
Date: September 28, 2024
Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas
Kickoff: 7 pm

Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby, Xzavier Henderson, and Corey Kiner form one of the best Big 3s in the Big 12 to start the season. Sorsby, the quarterback, has been incredibly efficient through four weeks, with 1,055 yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Kiner, the running back, averages 101 yards per game and more than six yards per carry. Henderson already has over 300 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

If Texas Tech’s Big 3 didn’t outpace that trio, I’d be more concerned than I already am about Cincinnati coming to Lubbock for a Week 5 matchup under the lights at The Jones. Behren Morton has more passing yards and touchdowns than Sorsby and hasn’t thrown an interception at home. While Morton hasn’t been as efficient, he’s piled up stats in Lubbock. Tahj Brooks has topped 100 yards in each of his starts this season, averaging 126 yards per game. Josh Kelly has the second-most receptions in the conference, the fourth-most receiving yards, and three touchdowns, matching Henderson.

Texas Tech also has an edge in the depth of skill position players. After hearing defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter talk about Cincinnati’s offensive line and considering preseason rankings, I thought their line would be far better than Tech’s. But after watching them, I don’t think that’s the case. I’d give Cincinnati the edge in that position group, but they aren’t dominant.

Defensively, Cincinnati is an interesting case. They run the Iowa State defense popularized by Jon Heacock in the last decade. Cincinnati’s DC, Tyson Veidt, coached with Heacock and Matt Campbell at Toledo and Iowa State. The Cyclones’ 3-high safety defense has revitalized Cincinnati, and they look much improved on that side of the ball. Still, it’s a tricky system that requires fitting all the puzzle pieces together. You need your best athletes in the secondary but also enough size to stop the run. Iowa State consistently finds linebackers athletic enough to play safety. I don’t think Cincinnati has the personnel to match Iowa State’s level, but they’ve got the framework in place and just shut out Houston last week.

Texas Tech’s defense stumbled out of the gate in Week 1 but has since bounced back, holding North Texas’ Chandler Morris in check and limiting Arizona State’s Cam Scattebo to 60 rushing yards. Ben Roberts has been stellar, and first-year starter Chapman Lewis has admirably filled Dadrion Taylor-Demerson’s massive shoes. The pass rush was effective early against Arizona State but disappeared late in the game.

Adding to the big-game atmosphere, the matchup kicks off at 7:00 p.m. in a blackout for the Red Raiders. If it were 2008, Cincinnati would be walking into a buzzsaw. But it’s not, and Texas Tech no longer commands that dominant night-game presence in Lubbock. However, since Joey McGuire took over, Tech is 11-8 in conference play, with only two home conference losses—both at night and in all-black uniforms.

Coincidence? Maybe.

It’s also worth noting that McGuire is 8-0 at home in his other Big 12 games.

Tempo will be a factor. Texas Tech plays fast, while Cincinnati prefers ball control. But I think McGuire’s winning trend continues this weekend as Texas Tech wins and covers against Cincinnati.

Traveling in for the game? Visit Lubbock has you covered for Things to Do, Can’t Miss Experiences and Where to Stay!