Dave Campbell’s Texas Football can report that Texas State has had active conversations with the MWC, Pac-12, and AAC, as well as with the Sun Belt about remaining. The Bobcats hope to capitalize on the momentum of the last two seasons alongside a robust alumni network and proximity to Austin and San Antonio. A source confirms that the Texas State brass is working the phones daily to build a case for the Bobcats as an attractive option. 

UTSA joined Memphis, Tulane, and South Florida in reaffirming their commitment to the American Athletic Conference in the latest round of realignment. The move to stiff the reimagined Pac-12 combined with Utah State’s surprise exodus from the Mountain West leaves the G6 landscape in limbo. 

A conference requires eight football-playing members to qualify for an FBS conference. The departures of Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, and Fresno State from the MWC to the Pac-12 started the music on the latest round of musical chairs. Utah State followed and that put the Pac 12 and the MWC at seven schools each. Reports surfaced Wednesday night that UNLV and Air Force are staying in the MWC. 

Two schools that would explore moves from their current conferences are UTEP (Conference USA) and Texas State (Sun Belt). The television contracts in the MWC, Pac-12, and AAC would create massive windfalls for both institutions. Conference USA pays each team a reported $750K annually because of the TV contract. The Sun Belt’s total payout is roughly $2 million. The MWC is closer to $4 million while the AAC is at $7 million. The Pac-12 could fetch $8-15 million depending on a future television deal. 

Geography also plays a large factor in the interest. Both UTEP and Texas State are on western islands by themselves (UTEP now has New Mexico State in CUSA). A move to the MWC or Pac-12 would save the programs money on travel, time for their student-athletes, and generate new income streams as athletes transition into potential employee status. 

UTEP has long wanted an invite to the MWC due to geography. The Texas market is important to television companies, which puts UTEP and Texas State on the forefront of any western expansion for either conference. 

The buyout for UTEP from Conference USA would be close to $2 million. Southern Miss paid $1.75 million in 2022. The Sun Belt buyout is around $5 million. That’s much less than what the AAC schools would’ve paid to join the Pac-12, which was one of the biggest obstacles to that deal. 

No one can predict what happens next in an unpredictable conference realignment climate, but one thing is for certain – something will happen. Standing pat isn’t an option with two prominent conferences sitting a school below the FBS threshold. The deck isn’t completely shuffled, and the next moves could impact the future of two of the programs in the Lone Star State.