The Week 4 slate around the Lone Star State is a mixed bag of conference and non-conference games. The biggest contest of the weekend is the Battle for the Iron Skillet between TCU and SMU, a pair of programs on the same footing for the first time since TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012, and arguably for the first time since the Death Penalty in the 1980s. 

Twelve of the 13 FBS programs in Texas are in action in Week 4 with Texas State enjoying an idle Saturday. Remember, each program gets two idle weeks in 2024, thanks to the expanded playoff. The Great State went a combined 6-6 in Week 3 with SMU idle. The combined record for the 13 FBS teams in Texas so far this season is 22-18. 

1. Who wins the Battle for the Iron Skillet? 

The Horned Frogs enter the contest as three-point favorites despite the game taking place at Ford Stadium on the Hilltop. TCU is a great passing team thanks to the arm of Josh Hoover and talented receivers such as Savion Williams and Jack Bech, but the defense is shaky three games into the Andy Avalos tenure. SMU feels like the opposite. The Ponies struggled offensively, specifically along the offensive line, and that forced a quarterback change from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings. 

The route to victory for TCU is a high-scoring affair that forces both teams to pass the ball. SMU must win with defense and its run game. Turnovers and red zone efficiency might decide this one, and we’re leaning toward a high-scoring affair. I’ll take the Horned Frogs to cover because I trust their offense to score the points required to win this game. 

2. Is Marcel Reed the new lead man for the Aggies? 

While the Arch Manning start in Austin will gobble headlines and force an untrue narrative of a quarterback controversy on the Forty Acres, the Texas A&M Aggies might be watching a changing of the guard as the 12th Man watches their team face Bowling Green in Kyle Field. Marcel Reed dazzled in a road win against Florida last week – the first for the program since 2021. He was also excellent in the Texas Bowl win over Oklahoma State to end last season. Offensive coordinator Collin Klein likes mobile quarterbacks and the extra number they provide in the run game. Reed seems like he fits the mold perfectly. 

3. Should we pay attention to Baylor in 2024? 

Colorado feels like the perfect college football version of a “gatekeeper”, a term used in professional wrestling to describe a wrestler who dictates who is good and who is bad by if their opponent wins or loses. Beat a guy like “The Miz” and you’re likely to shoot up the roster and into a name that matters. Lose to “The Miz” and it is likely a sign that you’re relegated to the bottom of the roster. Colorado feels just like that. 

Baylor is the next up to face college football’s “The Miz.” If the Bears win, that’s a sure sign that Dave Aranda’s 2024 experiment is working and that this team is worthy of attention as the Big 12 schedule intensifies. Losing to Colorado would suggest another season hoping to finish above .500 and in the bottom-half of the conference pecking order.  

4. How worried should we be about Rice? 

The Owls have enjoyed a steady climb up the ladder with Mike Bloomgren in charge. They won two games in 2018, three games in 2019, four in 2021, five in 2022, and six in 2023. The next step is a seven-win season and the first above .500 finish for Rice in the seven seasons of his tenure. A 1-2 start with blowout losses to Sam Houston and Houston aren’t a great sign for the Owls’ trajectory. They enter Week 4 as a near touchdown underdog to Army. Lose this week and seven games feels like a long way away.  

5. Is Sam Houston a Conference USA favorite? 

The Bearkats' 3-9 record was misleading because of all the one-score heartbreak experienced in Year 1 as an FBS program. K.C. Keeler told anyone who’d listen that his Kats were four plays away from four more wins. After three games of 2024, it feels like Sam Houston has rounded a corner. They blew out Rice on the road to start the season and knocked off Hawaii in Week 3. They enter Week 4 as a three-score favorite against New Mexico State. Beating the Aggies doesn’t mean the Bearkats are ready to jump from three-win team to conference champion, but beating them by 17 points combined with the two other wins against G5 competition would absolutely signal a statement of intent in Huntsville.