We made it. 

A long slog through the offseason ends as our watch begins. College football is officially back as Week 1 in Texas begins late Friday night when TCU travels to Stanford. SMU provided us an appetizer in Week 0 with a narrow escape from Nevada, but all 13 FBS squads in the Lone Star State return to the gridiron for another sprint toward immortality. 

The college football landscape looks different heading into 2024. SMU is a Power Four program as members of the Atlantic Coast Conference. Texas moved to the SEC. The playoff was expanded to 12 teams and guarantees a spot for each P4 champion as well as the best G5 champion. That means UTSA and Texas State could play for everything, as could TCU or Texas Tech if either makes a run at a Big 12 crown. 

In a new way to approach previewing the upcoming weekend, we’ll focus on five storylines to watch heading into Week 1 and provide some gambling predictions at the bottom because I simply can’t help myself. 

1. Texas A&M launches into contender status with win over Notre Dame

The 12-team playoff expansion lowers the bar for national contendership (new word). Instead of needing a magical run that includes a perfect, or near perfect, regular season, a Power Two team such as the Aggies can go 10-2 (maybe even 9-3 in some years) and still make the dance. Wins over quality teams will carry more weight than losses to inferior foes, so an early feather in the cap against a Top 10-ranked Fighting Irish squad would catapult Texas A&M into the Top 15 and into playoff contender status. 

The Aggies are three-point favorites in the primetime matchup with Notre Dame, thanks mostly to the bump received for playing at Kyle Field. But there are other reasons to believe the Aggies can win this game. The Notre Dame offensive line will start two freshmen and three sophomores against a Wrecking Crew defense headlined by a front 4 that includes Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart. The Fighting Irish defense, especially the secondary, is vaunted. 

2. Mean Green defensive improvements 

North Texas won five games and missed a bowl game for only the second time since 2015 in Eric Morris’ first year as the head coach in Denton, America. That’s mostly because of a poor defense that didn’t have the personnel to effectively run Matt Caponi’s 3-3-5 system brought in from Iowa State. The safeties were too small. The tackling was too poor. The defensive line was too soft. In-house development and new portal additions should help the Mean Green improve a defense that ranked 131 out of 133 in FBS scoring defense, allowing 37.1 points per game. 

North Texas isn’t expected to become the ’85 Bears on defense. The unit doesn’t need to be spectacular. Just not awful. The offense ranked 20th in scoring offense with 34.4 points per game. The defense only needed to check in at 119th (Virginia with 33.8 points per game allowed) to become a unit that allowed more than the offense scored. The one-score games proved North Texas was close, but the losses in those contests revealed the cracks in the foundation. A strong showing against a favored South Alabama squad in Week 1 would prove that the Mean Green are turning a defensive corner and are closer to AAC contention than most realize. 

3. The Houston outlook for Year 1 under Willie Fritz 

A more talented roster in 2023 only managed four wins in Houston’s first foray into Big 12 waters. Willie Fritz brings about more competency and consistency on the sidelines, but talent still wins games. The Cougars are stockpiling that talent on the recruiting trail, but that won’t help them win games in 2024. Vegas agrees and set the win total for Houston at four. To reach that, beating UNLV at home in Week 1 is an important part of the check list. The Rebels are no slouch and enter the game as only 2.5-point favorites, suggesting this is a pick’em at a neutral site. 

4. A prove-it year for Sonny Dykes at TCU 

The speed in which sands shift in the college football world is best illustrated in Fort Worth. Dykes led the Frogs to a national championship game in Year 1 in 2022. Last year was a major setback as the program limped to a 5-7 finish that resulted in the dismissal of defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie. TCU was the first team since Texas in 2010 to miss a bowl a year after reaching a national championship game. Year 3 should tell a clearer story about what the Horned Frogs are with Dykes in charge. Kendal Briles is in his second season as the OC. Andy Avalos is in as DC. A trip to Stanford shouldn’t be an issue as TCU enters as 9.5-point favorites. An easy win would quell concerns, but a struggle in Palo Alto will raise antennas. 

5. Rice or Sam Houston emerges as a dangerous G5 out 

The only intrastate game at the FBS level takes place at Historic Rice Stadium when Sam Houston starts Year 2 with the big boys with a trip to face the Owls. Head coaches Mike Bloomgren and KC Keeler are the two-longest tenured head coaches at the FBS level in the Lone Star State and each believes their team can post a winning record in 2024. Losing the opener won’t make that easy. The Owls are a double-digit favorite, but the Bearkats weren’t an easy out in 2023. 

CRAVEN’S BETS 

TCU -9.5 at Stanford
UTEP/Nebraska Over 49 
North Texas +5.5 at South Alabama 
Houston -2.5 vs. UNLV
Sam Houston +10 vs. Rice