I am a stathead at heart, and I love exploring the analytics and numbers that determine who wins football games. Yet, I understand that many people aren’t always fans of digging into the weeds and prefer me to stick to the “inside” information. But what if I find a way to bring you both during the football season?

That’s my goal for the Blitz this season—to bring you the stats on Texas non-FBS teams you can’t find anywhere else while continuing to provide the insider information many desire. This week’s edition will be stat-heavy, as it is a mere eight days until Tarleton hosts McNeese on ESPN2. 

I also ask for your help. If you have any stats or information you want to know, please send it to me, and I will provide answers if possible. You can submit ideas to my social media pages @CoryHogueSports on X/Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Threads, or email cory.hogue@texasfootball.com.

This week, I set out to discover who has the toughest schedule among Texas non-FBS teams this year. I used each opponent's 2023 record and included a bonus or subtraction for games against opponents in higher or lower divisions. 

For example, an FCS team playing a Power 4 opponent was given a boost equal to two wins, while an FCS team meeting an NAIA foe had the equivalent of three wins subtracted from their opponent’s 2023 results and added to the loss column. Texas Tech finished 7-6 last year but was credited with a 9-4 record when calculating Abilene Christian’s strength of schedule this year. ACU opens the season against the Red Raiders in Lubbock.

FCS

Texas Southern finishing above Houston Christian was a bit of a surprise, but it speaks to the overall strength of the Southwestern Athletic Conference. The Tigers' non-conference schedule includes road games against Rice and Lamar and a home contest against NAIA Virginia Lynchburg. However, TSU was bolstered by playing Jackson State and Florida A&M in SWAC crossover contests.

HCU's brutal non-conference schedule features games at SMU, UTSA, and Indiana State and home contests against NAIA Louisiana Christian and Tarleton. Unfortunately for the Huskies, some Southland Conference teams struggled last year, with Northwestern State finishing 0-6, while McNeese and Texas A&M-Commerce combined to finish 2-19.

NCAA Division II

Someone at West Texas A&M did not do second-year head coach Josh Lynn any favors with a brutal non-conference slate. The Buffs meet three teams ranked in the preseason NCAA DII top-25 in consecutive weeks after opening the season at Sul Ross State. The stretch begins with a trip to No. 5 Colorado School of Mines, a national finalist in 2023, followed by home contests against No. 15 Western Colorado and No. 8 Central Washington. WT ends the regular season at home against No. 21 and reigning Lone Star Conference champion UTPB, at Texas A&M-Kingsville, home against Midwestern State, and finishes on the road against No. 24 Angelo State. 

NCAA Division III

The double round-robin format in the American Southwest Conference will be brutal for all four teams. Now isn’t the time to discuss whether NCAA Division III schools are avoiding the ASC teams desperately seeking non-conference games. That story will come later. But it is telling that three of the four ASC schools are playing games against non-countable opponents for the DIII playoffs. 

Mary Hardin-Baylor plays NAIA Bethel and DIII Wisconsin-Whitewater on the road but scheduled two home games against Westgate Christian and John Melvin that will not count toward their playoff resume. The Bethel contest will not be used in the DIII committee’s primary selection criteria. Howard Payne is playing three non-conference road games, including one on the road against Nelson. The Yellow Jackets' only non-conference home contest is against Westgate Christian, which will not count.

NAIA

North American has never shied away from playing tough competition since Kenneth Apande started the program in 2021; this year is no exception. The Stallions open the season at Stephen F. Austin and have a non-conference game against DIII powerhouse Hardin-Simmons in late September. The Stallions did schedule a home game against John Melvin, who is beginning their second season of football and is not a member of the NCAA, NAIA, or NJCAA this season. The situation is similar to what NAU faced when starting its program.

NJCAA

Tyler has a legitimate argument to be above Blinn. The Buccaneers have two non-countable games scheduled against TWA College and John Melvin. Blinn’s entire strength of schedule above is due to the strength of the Southwestern Junior College Football Conference. 

The Apaches' non-conference schedule features a contest at Dodge City, where they finished 8-3 last year. They have a new head coach in Dave Campbell’s Texas Football 40-uner-40 recipient, Ryan Lusby. Tyler’s other non-conference foe is Georgia Military, who visits in Week 2.