Stepp's 2024 Class 5A Division I Region II Outlook: Projecting district finishes, bi-district matchups and regional champs!

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Region II had a surprise winner as Forney took home the regional title before falling to eventual state champion Aledo in the state semifinals. This region has been shaken up in a major way going into 2024 as the four regional semifinalists from 2023 are all gone (Forney, Lancaster and Longview to 6A and Richland over to Region I). That means we’ll have some new (or maybe old) blood rising to the forefront in 2024.

There’s plenty of parity and balance in 5-5A Division I where two or three pretty solid teams will miss out on the playoffs as this district goes seven deep with quality playoff type depth. Lone Star is the easy pick to win the district as the Rangers return a boat load of talent on both sides of the ball. But they do have to answer a pretty big question at QB. McKinney North doesn’t bring back the name talent some of the others in this loop have, but the Bulldogs are battle-tested from the old 7-5A Division I. Frisco returns 17 starters from a playoff team in 2023 and should hold off always tough Reedy for the 3-seed. Don’t sleep on playoff-tested Wakeland, a super talented Heritage squad, or a tricky Sherman team either; Sherman has the best homefield advantage in the district and that could pay off if they can pull an upset or two on the road.

The newly constituted 6-5A Division I expects to be very entertaining, but on paper it is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Newman Smith, who was a third-place team a year ago, and the up-and-comer in West Mesquite, who comes from a brutal district with some new faces on the coaching staff and a ton of experience. North Mesquite joins West Mesquite in this loop and expect the Stallions to take a major step forward as they battle with solid Dallas ISD squads in WT White, Bryan Adams and Molina for the final two playoff slots.

Expect Highland Park to take their spot as the regional favorite as the Scots drop from 6A after two solid seasons; their defense could be among the best in the area when it is all said and done. Red Oak has one of the state’s top group of receivers, but the Hawks do have questions in the trenches, so that could open the door for surging Tyler, which expects to make a big leap forward under second year head coach Rashaun Woods. That Red Oak-Tyler game could be big for seeding (it is in Tyler this year). Burleson Centennial gets the edge over Midlothian for the final playoff spot.

Instead of 8-5A Divison I swinging all the way down to Houston, this geographic alignment makes a bit more sense as we swing down into the Super CenTex for this final district in Region II. Expect a tight battle at the top of the district race between Lake Belton and Cedar Park. It’s a coin flip between these two at the moment. Another coin flip could be for third and fourth as expect Georgetown and Rouse to be locked in a tight battle to avoid a bi-district game likely at Highland Park. The late coaching change really hurts Chaparral’s chances of getting into the playoffs this year, but watch out for them in 2025.

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 5-5A Division I

  1. Frisco Lone Star
  2. McKinney North
  3. Frisco
  4. Frisco Reedy
  5. Frisco Wakeland
  6. Frisco Heritage
  7. Sherman
  8. Frisco Centennial
  9. Frisco Lebanon Trail

 

District 6-5A Division I

  1. Carrollton Smith
  2. West Mesquite
  3. North Mesquite
  4. Dallas White
  5. Dallas Molina
  6. Dallas Adams
  7. Carrollton Creekview
  8. Dallas Sunset
  9. Carrollton Turner

 

District 7-5A Division I

  1. Highland Park
  2. Red Oak
  3. Tyler
  4. Burleson Centennial
  5. Midlothian
  6. Cleburne
  7. Joshua

 

District 8-5A Division I

  1. Lake Belton
  2. Cedar Park
  3. Leander Rouse
  4. Georgetown
  5. Georgetown East View
  6. Killeen Chaparral
  7. Leander Glenn
  8. Leander

 

 

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS

W5 Frisco Lone Star vs F6 Dallas White

R8 Cedar Park vs T7 Tyler

W6 Carrollton Smith vs F5 Frisco Reedy

R7 Red Oak vs T8 Leander Rouse

W7 Highland Park vs F8 Georgetown

R6 West Mesquite vs T5 Frisco

W8 Lake Belton vs F7 Burleson Centennial

R5 McKinney North vs T6 North Mesquite

 

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Highland Park over Frisco Lone Star

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