With spring football and the portal movement slowing down (fingers crossed) forecasting the 2024 season becomes an easier proposition. The 13 FBS programs in the Lone Star State share a common feeling heading into June: Hope. New faces and new opportunities provide a fresh slate for rosters and coaching staff. 

The 2024 season is a new day for the Great State. Texas reunites with Texas A&M in the SEC and SMU joins the P4 as ACC members. But what are the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team in the upcoming season? We’ll breakdown at each one.

Previous best/worst case scenario pieces for 2024: Texas | Texas A&M | UTSA | Texas State | TCU | Rice | Texas Tech | SMU | North Texas | Baylor 

HOUSTON COUGARS

2023 results: 4-8 
2024 schedule
Aug. 31                  UNLV                     
Sept. 7                   at Oklahoma  
Sept. 14                 Rice                        
Sept. 21                 at Cincinnati  
Sept. 28                 Iowa State        
Oct. 5                    at TCU                  
Oct. 19                  at Kansas          
Oct. 26                  Utah                       
Nov. 2                    Kansas State  
Nov. 16                  at Arizona          
Nov. 23                  Baylor                   
Nov. 30                  at BYU  

Best case for 2024: The best-case scenario for the Cougars in Year 1 of the Willie Fritz era has little to do with results and more to do with vibes. The non-conference schedule includes UNLV and Rice at home with a trip to play Oklahoma sandwiched in between. The Big 12 gauntlet includes trips to TCU, Kansas, and Arizona. The home schedule includes Utah and Kansas State. 

Reaching six wins would be an incredible accomplishment. The current win total projection in Las Vegas is four. Those wins could come against UNLV, Rice, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Baylor, and BYU. The other six seem like longshots. Anything over the four wins from 2023 should be considered progress, however. 

Fritz reigns rarely start with a bang. He won five games in his first season at Central Missouri, six at Sam Houston, and four at Tulane. Only the 9-3 record in Year 1 at Georgia Southern bucks the trend. Fritz prefers to tear it down and build it back up correctly at the foundation. That might result in a frustrating 2024, but it’ll bear fruit in the near future.  

Worse Case for 2024: Perspective is important. Houston is in Year 1 of a new head coach while playing a Power Four schedule for the second time. Expecting to launch directly into Big 12 contention was always fool’s gold. Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU also struggled in their maiden voyages away from the G5 ranks. With the roster turnover suffered by the Coogs following Dana Holgorsen’s departure, reaching six wins would be considered a monumental success. So, what constitutes failure?  

For us, failure has nothing to do with the record. Again, Houston is on vibes watch in 2024. Not all 5-7 seasons are created equally, for example. If the Cougars win four or five games and look like they’re moving in the right direction, fans should be happy with the program’s trajectory. If they win four or five games while looking unorganized and undisciplined, fans won’t exit 2024 with much hope for 2025.