With spring football and the portal movement slowing down (fingers crossed) forecasting the 2024 season becomes an easier proposition. The 13 FBS programs in the Lone Star State share a common feeling heading into June: Hope. New faces and new opportunities provide a fresh slate for rosters and coaching staff. 

The 2024 season is a new day for the Great State. Texas reunites with Texas A&M in the SEC and SMU joins the P4 as ACC members. But what are the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team in the upcoming season? We’ll breakdown at each one.

Previous best/worst case scenario pieces for 2024: Texas | Texas A&M | UTSA

TEXAS STATE BOBCATS 

2023 record: 8-5 
2024 schedule
Aug. 31                vs. Lamar
Sept. 7                 vs. UTSA
Sept. 12               vs. Arizona State 
Sept. 28               at Sam Houston (NRG Stadium) 
Oct. 3                   at Troy 
Oct. 12                 vs. Arkansas State 
Oct. 19                 at Old Dominion 
Oct. 29                 vs. Louisiana 
Nov. 9                   at ULM 
Nov. 16                 vs. Southern Miss
Nov. 23                 vs. Georgia State 
Nov. 29                 at South Alabama  

Best case for 2024: Let’s get it out of the way: The best case for the Bobcats in 2024 is a double-digit win season and a Sun Belt championship. Why not? Texas State beat Baylor and won its first bowl game as an FBS program last season in their first trip to the postseason. The team returns its head coach, best skill position players in Ismail Maudi and Joey Hobert, and added the reigning conference MVP in quarterback Jodan McCloud. The defense is led by defensive end Ben Bell and safety Kaleb Culp. Defensive coordinator Dexter McCoil Sr. is a future star in this industry, and the future might start in 2024. 

We’ll learn a lot about the Bobcats in the first month of the season because of home games against UTSA (Week 2) and Arizona State (Week 3). Split those contests and a 10- or even an 11-win regular season isn’t out of the question. Trips to Troy, Old Dominion and South Alabama are roadblocks, but Texas State is clearly one of the two or three favorites to win the Sun Belt and fans should lean into those expectations. 

Worst case for 2024: Pressure can burst pipes. At no point in the dozen or so years of Texas State existing as an FBS program have expectations been this high. Remember, this is a program that hadn’t reached a bowl game in the FBS ranks at this time last year. The eight-win 2023 was great, but momentum rarely carries throughout an entire offseason. What happens to the team’s confidence if they lose to UTSA and Arizona State at home to start the season 1-2? 

With all G5 programs, injuries can derail an entire season. Texas State must stay healthy, especially in the trenches. The Sun Belt schedule is littered with coin flip road games and trap games at home. A six- or seven-win season would feel like a disappointment, which is a testament to the building done by Kinne & Co. in two springs.