Houston's transition to the Big 12 was supposed to be rough. The Cougars were coming off a final season in the AAC in which they finished under .500, so no one really thought they could contend in a tough Big 12.

But the Coogs returned a whole lot of talent plus made some big additions out of the transfer portal, so they were expected to be competitive. And after going 9-2 in non-conference play and posting some of the best offensive numbers in program history, it looked like UH would have an outside shot to make it to postseason play if the team could just manage to tread water in the Big 12.

Instead, Houston finished with just five conference wins, with just two of those coming against teams that had been in the Big 12 for more than one season. One of those was over TCU when the team was without Sedona Prince. The other was against an Oklahoma State team that was in the midst of losing seven of eight games.

So, what went wrong for Houston?

The Offensive Mirage of Non-Conference Play

First, let's talk about why some people—me, included—really thought UH was going to be competitive. It starts in November, when the team suddenly looked like an offensive juggernaut.

Talk all you want about the level of team that UH was playing, but scoring 99, 106, and 106 points in wins over Air Force, Sam Houston, and Grambling was a big surprise and showcased an offense that was firing on all cylinders. Sure, hindsight shows us that Air Force finished 247th and Sam Houston 294th in defensive rating, but scoring 106 over a Grambling team that had held Arizona State to 67 points just a few days earlier was impressive. In fact, that 32-point win over Grambling looks pretty good in retrospect, as the team went 15-3 in SWAC play.

Overall, the non-conference numbers were really good. The team had a 102.6 offensive rating in non-conference, good for the 83rd percentile. That's a huge improvement over where this team's been at in recent seasons. In the 2022-23 season, the team's offensive rating was 85.3, which ranked in the 27th percentile. The team hasn't finished in the top half of Division I in offensive rating since way back in the 2017-18 season, when they were in the 59th percentile.

In fact, since Ronald Hughey took over the program, the Coogs have finished below the 30th percentile in offensive rating five times. Offense has been a consistent struggle for this program under Hughey's leadership, but the Coogs have often made up for it by being a very good defensive team. They had finished above the 90th percentile in defensive rating in two of the last three years coming into this season.

But those non-con numbers on offense really made it feel like this could be a new kind of UH team. The team was aggressive on the boards, averaging 19.3 second chance points per game, and constantly pushed the pace, with 14.0 fast breaks points per contest. Both of those marks were near the top of the nation. And the Coogs were doing this while shooting just 28.6 percent from three, so the strong numbers weren't just influenced by good long-range shooting luck.

There were cracks, though. The team lost two non-conference games and the numbers weren't pretty. In the losses to Middle Tennessee and Washington State, the team had an offensive rating of 65.9 and a defensive rating of 117.0. Those numbers are the zeroth percentile. It's just a two-game sample so it's fair to not extrapolate too much from it, but the fact that Houston looked awful against the two best teams it played in non-conference was an ominous sign.

Things Fall Apart in Big 12 Play

Houston was almost immediately exposed once conference play began. After a close loss to Texas Tech in the first game, the team went on the road to Kansas State and scored just 38 points in a 34-point loss. A few days later, the Coogs lost by 29 to Baylor. 

All in all, the offense fell to pieces once conference play began, with the Coogs finishing last in the Big 12 in offensive rating at 84.3. They shot the ball poorly, with their 35.6 percent mark being 13th of 14 teams in the conference. The offensive rebounding that was a huge part of the non-conference success dried up, with the team finishing 11th in the conference in offensive rebounding rate.

A lack of offensive success hasn't always doomed Houston in the past, but the defense suffered major falloff as well, with the team also finishing last in the Big 12 in defensive rating. Playing tough defense has been a hallmark of the Hughey era for UH, but things were just a mess on that end during the Big 12 portion of the season.

Houston especially struggled at defending the rim, with opponents shooting 66.3 percent there, which ranked in the 1st percentile nationally. The Coogs just couldn't keep opposing teams away from the basket. It didn't help that the Big 12 had such an abundance of dominant bigs this year.

You could really feel the struggles when Houston's best interior defender, Peyton McFarland, was on the sidelines. During conference play, Houston had a 105.8 defensive rating when McFarland was on the sidelines, which ranked in the fourth percentile. The defense was still below average with her on the floor, but it sank to some of the nation's lowest lows without McFarland in there to create some inside resistance.

All in all, Houston just felt like a team that was consistently mismatched against Big 12 foes. The team didn't have the size to compete defensively in such a physical conference, and the team also lacked the shooting to make up for that. It all resulted in a disheartening year down in the Third Ward.

Now, Houston enters a pivotal offseason. Many of the key pieces of this team are out of eligibility. Laila Blair still has a COVID year, but N'Yah Boyd and Bria Patterson are done. Sure, Houston could try to fill in gaps around Blair, McFarland, Maliyah Johson, and Britney Onyeje, but there's 1) no guarantee those players don't enter the portal and 2) no guarantee that core is really enough to build around for one more go. Houston hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 and is coming off its third 16-loss season in a row. Something has to change. Maybe that something is coaching. Maybe it's a full teardown of the program with an emphasis on bringing in younger players in the portal. Whatever it is, Houston has to figure out something quick, because the conference will only get stronger next season with the addition of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah.