The fear that college football is moving toward two mega conferences (Big 10 and SEC) controlling the landscape of the sport is realized in the DCTF Top 100 recruiting rankings from the 2024 cycle. Of the 100 prospects ranked, 99 signed national letters of intent in the early signing period. Only Texas A&M commit Terry Bussey delayed his signing until the February national signing day.

The SEC and, to a lesser extent, the Big 10 already hold a distinct talent advantage. The movement of Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC as well as the migration of USC, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA to the Big 10 mean even more of the top high school prospects from across the nation will funnel into those conferences. Fifty-eight of the top 100 players in Texas are headed to the SEC or Big 10. 

The Lone Star State in the 2024 cycle illustrates the growing problem. Thirty-two of the top 50 players on the final 2024 rankings list are signed with the SEC. Six more are headed to the Big 10. Two others are signed with Clemson, and one is signed with Notre Dame. Only two players in the top 25 – Micah Hudson (Texas Tech) and Dre’lon Miller (Colorado) – are headed to the Big 12, and both of those are wide receivers. 

Forty-five of Texas’ top 100 prospects are headed to the SEC. Only 31 are headed to the Big 12. Fifty-nine of the top 100 players in Texas high school football for the 2024 cycle are signed to schools from out of state. Take away the 17 combined prospects signed with Texas and Texas A&M, and only 24 of Texas’ other top 83 players are staying in the Lone Star State. 

Eleven SEC schools signed at least one of Texas’ top 100 players. Eight Big 10 schools signed at least one player. A staggering 29 out-of-state programs signed at least one player from the top 100. Oklahoma and LSU signed seven players each from the list. USC signed four and Arkansas signed four. Baylor only signed two. Houston managed just one. 

Texas Tech was second on the list (trailing only Texas) with nine signatures from the top 100. TCU was third on the list with eight. But of the 17 combined signees from the top 100, only five ranked in the top 50 and only one was inside the top 25. 

Texas and Oklahoma helped the Big 12 keep pace with the rest of the country on the recruiting trail. With their departures, the Big 12 loses 18 of the top 100 prospects in Texas to the SEC. The move of Texas A&M out of the Big 12 and into the SEC allowed some of those other programs a foothold in Texas recruiting. Georgia signed three prospects, including two in the top 10. Alabama signed two, as did Arkansas. Even Mizzouri and Vanderbilt inked one top 100 player from Texas - more than any of the G5 programs in Texas combined. In fact, only one player from the Top 100 is headed to the G5 level, and he's committed to Memphis. 

No team from Texas has won a national title since 2005. The state only has one national championship (Texas in 2005) since 1970. A team other than the Longhorns hasn't claimed a national title since Texas A&M in 1939 and TCU in 1938. One of the obstacles is the size of the state, and the amount of FBS programs. Texas is home to 13 FBS programs. Teams like Oklahoma and LSU are considered closer, and in some cases more "local", to most prospects than some of those in-state schools. In total, 36 different schools signed at least one player on our top 100 list.

The expanded playoff provides hope to programs in the Big 12. The path for teams such as Texas Tech and TCU is easier than ever – win the Big 12 and you’re in, most likely with a first-round home game. But reaching the dance isn’t the same as winning it, and statistically, the programs with the most talent win the biggest games. For the in-state programs not named Texas or Texas A&M, figuring out a way to keep the best players in Texas from leaving the state for SEC and Big 10 programs, or even national brands outside of those two places like Notre Dame and Clemson, is the key to becoming national title contenders.