We're at the point in the season where we know what teams are and essentially know what they're playing for. But that still doesn't create some room for intrigue. We asked our FBS college football staff to come up with one question for each of the 13 FBS programs in Texas. What's the lens in which they'll be viewing the rest of the season through?
Here were their answers, in alphabetical order:
BAYLOR
Can the wide zone be revived?
Baylor won the 2021 Big 12 Championship behind a stout defense and a grueling run game from offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes dubbed the “wide zone”. Two years later, Blake Shapen has thrown the ball 30+ times in every start because the Bears have the Big 12’s second-worst rushing offense with 115 yards a game. Offensive line coach Eric Mateos brought in brothers Clark and Campbell Barrington, whom he knew from his BYU days, to help shore up this offensive line. So far this season, the Bears are losing most of their battles along the line of scrimmage. If they’re to scrape together three more wins, the run game has to return to take pressure off Shapen.
(Carter)
HOUSTON
What constitutes a successful first season in the Big 12?
Before Donovan Smith’s hail mary to Stephon Johnson to shock West Virginia as time expired, it looked like Houston was on a collision course for a 1–6 start. Then they got the miracle they needed in their Big 12 home opener and followed it up by taking No. 8-ranked Texas to the wire in a 31-24 loss. There are moments when Houston looks thoroughly outmatched, such as spotting Texas a 21-point lead or getting blanked in the second half by TCU. Then there are times where I want to fall in love with quarterback Donovan Smith. The 3–4 record is almost a positive considering how close Houston was to the season falling off the rails, but does six wins and bowl eligibility constitute faith in Holgorsen’s vision?
(Carter)
NORTH TEXAS
Can this defense get enough stops to go bowling?
Eric Morris’s air raid has soared since inserting Chandler Rogers into the lineup after an 0–2 start. Rogers has completed 65 percent of his passes with an impressive 14:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Yes, the defense is still dead last in the nation allowing 255 rushing yards per game, but they’ve been opportunistic in a 3–2 run. Three interceptions and two fourth down stops against Temple can partially be explained by the Owls using their backup quarterback, but forcing Tulane’s Michael Pratt into two turnovers opened some eyes. They’ll need a similar effort in a daunting back half of the schedule.
(Carter)
RICE
Can Rice compete for the AAC if its defense even manages to put up average production?
WAIT, don’t leave! Just hear me out. Rice has all but abandoned the run in favor of JT Daniels airing it out. The Owls are last in rushing plays called (37 percent) but are Top 40 in the nation in points per play and yards per play. He's been everything.
The problem is that one of Daniels' best games, and the best game of Luke McCaffrey's career (199 receiving yards), were wasted by a putrid defensive display against USF in a 42-29 loss. Rice's defense finally put together their best game last week forcing three turnovers and holding Tulsa to 4-of-14 on third downs resulting in Rice's largest conference win in 10 years. I'm not saying they will compete for the AAC, I'm just saying that no one's stopped Daniels and McCaffrey, so what happens if they can get a little bit of help?
(Ishmael)
SAM HOUSTON
How much can Sam Houston fix this season, off-season?
It's been a painful start to FBS-life for Sam Houston. Their running back room is decimated and their best receiver has been out of action since September. The offensive line is what it is and the same could be said about quarterback. It's resulted in the 0-7 start, even despite the Bearkats' defensive numbers being better than the record indicates.
How much can fixed with the time left in the season? On that line of thinking, can Sam Houston rebuild its entire offensive line, find a capable starting quarterback and replace outgoing seniors in one off-season? This could be the biggest challenge KC Keeler's faced in his career, but if you're would you rather have anyone else other than one of the best coaches in recent CFB to handle it?
(Ishmael)
SMU
Can the passing game find enough big plays for a conference title?
SMU is 5–2 in large part because the defense has shown stark improvement from recent years, allowing just 14 points a game and boasting the nation’s 11th-best pass defense. On paper, it’s the same dynamic SMU offense averaging 36 points a game. But SMU has yet to establish a number one wide receiver in Rashee Rice’s wake. Jake Bailey is the leading receiver with 294 yards, but four other guys also have 200. SMU has rarely taken the top off the defense, which they don’t need to for the regular season AAC slate. But if this team wants to win the conference and potentially reach a NY6 Bowl, they’ll need to find more of a deep passing game.
(Carter)
TCU
Is Kendall Briles’ offense actually the biggest concern?
Sonny Dykes didn’t do himself any favors by replacing Garret Riley with Briles. When a coach sacrifices good will in to make a polarizing hire, it’s presumed that any criticism will be worth the baggage and obviously that hasn’t been the case for a team that was the 10th scoring and 14th in yards per play in 2022 and now 62nd in scoring and 43rd in yards per play. But the lack of upside from the offense has only highlighted defensive flaws that were perhaps glossed over a year ago.
TCU can’t defend the run (80th in rushing yards allowed). TCU can’t get off the field (71st in opponent third-down conversion percentage) and can’t win the turnover game (96th in takeaways). TCU weren’t the 2001 Ravens last season, but when you have game-breaking stars like Max Duggan, Quentin Johnson and Kendre Miller, you’re more often than not going to provide the defense opportunities to make a singular game-shifting play. This year those opportunities are few and far between with the offense taking a modest step back.
(Ishmael)
TEXAS
Can Texas survive the Quinn Ewers injury?
The Longhorns are 6-1 and in control of their own Big 12 destiny – and maybe even beyond to the College Football Playoff. To reach those goals, they must lean on backup quarterbacks Maalik Murphy, and maybe even true freshman Arch Manning. Steve Sarkisian told reporters Monday that Ewers is “week-to-week” with a sprain in the AC joint of his throwing arm. Texas’s next two opponents – BYU and Kansas State – are a combined 10-4 on the season. The Week 10 clash with Kansas State could determine Oklahoma’s opponent in the Big 12 championship game. The last three games on the schedule are a combined 11-12 entering Week 9. Survive the next two games, and Texas is right on track.
(Craven)
TEXAS A&M
Can Jimbo Fisher save his job?
The Aggies are 4-3 on the year and enter a home game against South Carolina on a two-game losing streak in SEC play. Three weeks ago, Texas A&M faced Alabama at home with a chance to grab control of the SEC West. Three weeks later, and the main topic in College Station is about money – specifically the $70-plus million the Aggies owe Fisher if he’s fired after 2023. The problem is that only dips about $10 million if they wait until after 2024. With road games against LSU and Ole Miss still on the docket, an eight- or nine-win season feels impossible. Is 7-5 enough to keep Fisher? I doubt it.
(Craven)
TEXAS STATE
Is Ismail Mahdi the team's most important player?
Texas State’s on the verge of its first bowl appearance in program history thanks to a revamped offense. The team is 31st in the nation in yards per play (6.1) and the passing game led by TJ Finley is a big part of that.
But when Texas State’s struggled offensively, it’s coincided with either an unhealthy or unproductive Ismail Mahdi in the run game. During the Bobcats’ come-from-behind win over UL-Monroe, in which the team was stuck at nine points through three quarters, the former Houston Christian back was carrying an injury from the previous week and finished with just 50 yards on 14 carries. Against UTSA, the team’s lowest output of the season? Six carries for 23 yards.
(Ishmael)
TEXAS TECH
How much would missing a bowl hurt momentum in West Texas?
The Red Raiders won eight games and finished with a winning record in Big 12 play for the first time since 2009 in Joey McGuire’s first year in charge. Money poured in for NIL and facility upgrades and expectations elevated on the field to Big 12 dark horse status. Instead, injuries have forced Texas Tech to start three different quarterbacks for the second straight year and a bowl bid requires three wins out of the next four. Can McGuire continue to foster excitement and fundraising – as well as recruiting success like keeping five-star wide receiver Micah Hudson locked in – while posting a losing record? That’s no easy task for a fan base that thought they were done being patient and are ready to compete in the Big 12 post Texas and Oklahoma.
(Craven)
UTEP
Is Dana Dimel going to stick to his style no matter what?
In 2021, QB Gavin Hardin was 12th in the nation in passing yards per attempt (9.0). In 2022, he was down to 6.5 yards per attempt and before getting hurt this fall, he was at 7.3. Cade McConnell gave a little bit of life for one week vs FIU but the following game, the Cerritos College product went 15-of-32 for just 179 yards and the play-calling didn’t reflect much faith. With a run game that’s been okay – Deion Hankins has over 500 yards on 5.2 yards per carry – and a lack of playmaking receiver talent, Hardison injured and McConnell limited as a passer, when does Dimel switch it up?
Dimel’s still calling plays despite Scotty O’Hara taking over as offensive coordinator. O'Hara's a Dimel lifer so the principles would likely be similar, but does that mean UTEP’s offense is doomed to be what it is until a change is made at the top?
(Ishmael)
UTSA
How long can the conference domination continue?
The Roadrunners are 23-3 in conference play since Jeff Traylor took over ahead of the 2020 season. The last time UTSA lost a conference game was on Nov. 27, 2021 against North Texas when the Roadrunners had already locked up a spot in the Conference USA championship game – which they won the next week. UTSA is 18-1 in their last 19 heading into the East Carolina game on Saturday. After that are contests against familiar in-state foes North Texas and Rice. The truest test remaining, at least on paper, is a Week 13 trip to face Tulane in a game that could determine one spot of the AAC championship.
(Craven)
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