Ready or not, the college football season is nearly two-thirds of the way over following Week 8. The state of Texas experienced another hot-and-cold slate of action as the G5 programs continued to fare better than their Power Five bretheren. Six of the 13 teams in the Lone Star State possess a winning record, but only two of them - Texas and Texas A&M - play in a Power Five conference. 

The 411 provides a wrap-around look at the state of Texas following each week of the college football season by providing four truths, one prediction, and one question. 

FOUR TRUTHS 

Same ole Longhorns? Texas has a well-earned reputation of playing with its food against inferior competition. That same song-and-dance played out in Houston despite the Longhorns coming off an idle week and a loss in Red River. The motivation looked there early as they cruised to an easy 21-point lead, only to let off the gas and apply the brakes on both sides of the football in the second and third quarter, specifically.

The Longhorns scored 21 points and gained 202 yards in its first four drives. Then only netted 158 yards and 10 points over the final eight drives of the game. Conversely, the defense fell apart after its first four drives resulted in Houston punts. The Cougars’ first four drives gained a combined 28 yards but they finished the first half with drives of 71 and 75 yards before starting the second half with another 71-yard drive – all three were touchdowns. Two forced turnovers by the defense in the second half were crucial, however.

Texas is 6-1 and all its goals are in front of Sark’s crew. But those wins aren’t without drama. Texas has been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in three of its six wins, including a 24-all tie late against Houston. The Longhorns were trailing Alabama on the road, 16-13, before dismissing the Crimson Tide. They were tied at 10 with Wyoming in the fourth quarter. And, of course, they were down 10 against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry entering the fourth quarter before storming back in an eventual loss. 

Nothing is coming easy for Texas, but it should. The Longhorns were more talented than Houston and proved that by coasting to a 21-point lead before they even broke a sweat. Maybe that is the problem. 

What is the future for Dana Dimel, UTEP? The trajectory was great in El Paso at this time two years ago. The Miners were headed towards a seven-win season and a bowl invite for the first time since 2014. Dimel took over in 2017 following a winless 2016 campaign for UTEP and elevated the win total to one game in both 2018 and 2019. They hit three wins in a shortened 2020 season before breaking through in 2021.

Optimism and expectations were high heading into 2022 as the Miners sought consecutive bowl invites for the first time since 2004-2005 – something the program has only done three times in history. Instead, UTEP took a step backwards and finished with five wins. That put pressure on Dimel to perform in a new-look Conference USA this season with an experienced defensive line, star linebacker, stud running back, and a three-year starter at quarterback. UTEP is 2-6 with the loss against New Mexico State with games remaining against conference favorites Liberty and Western Kentucky.

Dimel agreed to a two-year contract extension in 2022 that raised his base salary to $800,000, so he’s on the books for the 2024 season. He’d be owed roughly $550,000 if he was terminated prior to the 2024 season. He’s 19-46 in five full seasons plus seven games of a seventh at UTEP, but that is misleading. He took over a dumpster fire of a job and turned it into a bowl team by year four. The problem is the combined 7-13 overall record and 4-8 conference record in the last two seasons. 

UTEP is a hard job and the program is unquestionably in a better position today than it was when Dimel took over in 2018. But this is a results business, and with a loss to a rival at home with a coach in year two combined with upstarts like Jax State thriving right away, the seat is clearly warm for the head man in Sun City.

UTSA continues conference domination: The last time UTSA lost a conference game was to North Texas on Nov. 27, 2021. That was a cold, wet day in Denton when the Roadrunners had already clinched a spot in the Conference USA championship game a week later – where they knocked off Bailey Zappe and Western Kentucky to claim the first conference crown in program history. As a college head coach, Jeff Traylor is 23-3 in conference games following the 36-10 win over Tom Herman’s FAU squad. UTSA is 18-1 against conference foes since the start of 2021 – Traylor’s second season on campus. 

After a slow start against stiff non-conference competition, the Roadrunners are finding their footing in a new conference. UTSA is 3-0 to start their maiden voyage into the AAC and appear to be on a collision course with Tulane in Week 13. Next up is a home game against 1-6 East Carolina and then contests against former CUSA rivals in North Texas and Rice. The season concludes with a home game against South Florida in Week 12 and then that pivotal road game against Tulane in the final week of the season. 

SMU is a legit conference contender: Any doubts that the Mustangs are for real in 2023 are quickly eroding as they obliterate AAC competition so far this season. SMU is 3-0 in conference play after a 55-0 win over Temple in Week 7. SMU has beaten its three AAC opponents on the year by an average total of 31.33 points. The only losses so far on the season for the Mustangs are to Power Five programs in Oklahoma and TCU – both on the road. SMU was within three points of Oklahoma in the fourth quarter. 

This might be the last chance for SMU to win a conference title in a long time as the Mustangs prepare for life in the ACC with the likes of Florida State, Clemson, and Miami starting in 2024. The last conference crown for SMU was in 1984. The Mustangs are five wins away from securing a spot in the AAC championship game and there aren’t games against fellow favorites UTSA and Tulane on the schedule. A road trip to Memphis in Week 12 feels like the only true test remaining in the regular season. 

ONE QUESTION 

Which Texas team in the Big 12 is set up for quickest success in 2024 and beyond?

Let’s take Texas out of the mix because the Longhorns are essentially an SEC team already. The power vacuum in the Big 12 is about to turn on once Texas and Oklahoma leave following the season. There is a true void at the top of the conference with Kansas State and incoming Utah as the most likely favorites early in the new-look conference’s lifespan. It wasn’t too long ago that we thought a team from Texas would step up and take top billing.

But then 2023 happened. TCU is 4-4 on the season with a 5-6 record under Sonny Dykes following that dream 12-0 start to his Fort Worth tenure. Texas Tech is 3-5 a year removed from an eight-win season that included wins over Texas and Oklahoma. Baylor is 3-4 with its only two Big 12 wins coming against conference newcomers in Cincy and Houston. Speaking of the Cougars, they’re 3-4 on the year with a loss to Rice. 

So, which team is poised to rebound in 2024 and become a true contender? The most likely candidates are TCU and Texas Tech because of recruiting. The Horned Frogs recruit better than any team in the conference not named Texas and Oklahoma. The Red Raiders are building momentum on the recruiting trail and have landed a five-star wide receiver and a record-breaking quarterback in the 2024 class.

ONE PREDICTION 

North Texas will upset someone in next three weeks: The Mean Green are starting to show a foundation for what Eric Morris wants to build in Denton, America. They were tied with Tulane at 28 late in the fourth quarter despite trailing 21-0 at halftime. The defense looks improved over the last two weeks and the Air Raid offense is hard to stop once it gets rolling like it did in the second half to Tulane.  

North Texas needs three wins to reach bowl eligibility and the season concludes with winnable games against Tulsa and UAB. For those to matter, however, the Mean Green need to upset at least one of their next three opponents – Memphis, UTSA, and SMU. The games against Memphis and UTSA are at home. The one road game of that trio is a short drive to Dallas to face rival SMU. 

I’m not sure which one, but North Texas will upset one of those three teams because the offense scores enough points to challenge anyone left on the schedule. It’ll just take on good game by the defense, or even just a bad offensive game by an opponent. North Texas almost got Tulane. It’ll get one of the next three. 

WEEK 7 SCORES 

FIU 33, Sam Houston 27 (2OT) 
New Mexico State 28, UTEP 7
Rice 42, Tulsa 10
SMU 55, Temple 0
Baylor 33, Cincinnati 29
Tulane 35, North Texas 28
Texas 31, Houston 24
UTSA 36, FAU 10
BYU 27, Texas Tech 14
Kansas State 41, TCU 3 

Idle: Texas A&M, Texas State