Week 6 was brutal for most of the Lone Star State. Five of the top six teams in the FBS Power Poll fell, including Texas, Texas A&M, and TCU – the top three Power Five teams in Texas entering the weekend. The 411 tries to clear up the picture with four truths, one prediction, and one question. 

FOUR TRUTHS 

Texas still controls destiny: A loss in the Red River Rivalry to a spunky Oklahoma team isn’t an indication that these are the same ‘ol Longhorns from the past 10-plus years. Texas didn’t play its best in the four-point loss to the Sooners, but not all is lost because of the loss. With the poor play of other Big 12 contenders such as TCU and Kansas State, it looked like Texas and Oklahoma were on a collision course for a rematch in Arlington in the Big 12 championship no matter which team won at the State Fair. If Texas rebounds to run the regular season table and then beat Oklahoma, the Longhorns are in the College Football Playoff. 

To do that, Texas must execute better in the red zone. The Longhorns scored three points in three red zone trips, including a goal line stop on four straight plays by the Sooner defense at a crucial point in the second half. The defense struggled for long periods of time for the first time this season as the Longhorns played against their first starting quarterback since Week 2 against Alabama. 

Oklahoma is good, but the Sooners only lost that game because of Texas mistakes. The red zone troubles, three turnovers for Quinn Ewers, including two interceptions on Texas’ first two drives, and a defense that couldn’t hold a three-point lead with a minute and change left in the game. Those are fixable mistakes if the Longhorns can earn a rematch in December. They might be double-digit favorites in each of the six remaining regular season games after an open date in Week 7. 

Conservative calls cost Aggies: Handing the playbook over to Bobby Petrino doesn’t do the Aggies any good if head coach Jimbo Fisher prevents Texas A&M from playing to win. The head coach coached not to lose, and that is exactly what happened. The Aggies punted three times in Alabama territory, including early in the fourth quarter on fourth-and-one. Alabama went down the field and scored what proved to be the game-winning touchdown on the ensuring drive.

Fisher then elected to kick a field goal on fourth-and-five deep in Bama territory later in the fourth quarter when his team was down seven points. The field goal was blocked. With 2:11 left in the game and down nine, the Aggies then reached the two-yard line on third down and called a timeout. Instead of going for a touchdown, Texas A&M kicked another field goal. Kicking the field goal wasn’t the biggest sin except that the Aggies only had two timeouts because Fisher used one before the play. 

The tightness exhibited by Fisher permeated through the entire team, especially the offense. The Aggies only ran 26 plays in the second half. Johnson was 6 of 11 for 88 yards through the air after attempting 15 passes in the first half. They were 3:1 pass to run on first down in the first two quarters, but 3:2 run to pass on first down in the second half. Alabama recorded four sacks and held Texas A&M to 15 rushing yards in the second half. 

Texas A&M entered Week 6 with a chance to take control of the SEC West and put to bed, at least for a while, the doubts about the head coach’s future in College Station. But because of the head coach’s decisions, the Aggies are back to the drawing board as they travel to Tennessee on Saturday. 

Baylor’s lost identity: The recipe during the 12-win 2021 that included a Big 12 and Sugar Bowl championship was simple – run the football and play defense. The Bears bullied their way to history in Dave Aranda’s second season. They’re officially hibernating following the Week 6 home loss to Texas Tech. It was the third home loss for Baylor in 2023. The Bears are now 2-8 in their last 10 games dating back to 2022 with only win in their last nine against FBS competition. 

In the 39-14 loss on Saturday night to the Red Raiders – and former assistant Joey McGuire – Baylor allowed 366 yards, including 186 on the ground. The Bears couldn’t get Texas Tech off the field. The Red Raiders were 10 of 18 on third down and 6 of 8 on fourth down. Conversely, Baylor was 4 of 15 on third down and 1 of 6 on the fourth down. The Bears averaged just .6 yards a carry with 30 total yards on 17 carries. Texas Tech registered six sacks. 

Baylor is now 2-4 on the season and in danger of finishing with a losing record for the third time in four seasons during the Aranda era. Losing to a former Matt Rhule assistant who was also in the running for the job ahead of 2020 won’t help quiet the building noise in Waco. Concerns are legitimate. Aranda is a defensive coach, and that side of the ball has let down the Bears for two straight seasons. 

Sam Houston is the best 0-5 team in the country: The Bearkats lost their second consecutive heartbreaker to start life as a Conference USA squad. They gave up a two-touchdown lead at home in Week 5 in an overtime loss to Jax State. Sam Houston fell five points short of an upset bid in Week 6 with a 21-16 loss at CUSA favorite Liberty in Week 6. The FBS newcomers are now 0-5 and tied for last place in conference play nearly halfway through the season. 

But the record doesn’t tell the whole story. Sam Houston’s five opponents were a combined 21-5 entering Week 6. The only team Sam Houston played that had more than one loss after five weeks of the season was Houston. The Bearkats are 3-2 against the spread in 2023, and one of those losses was by a half-point in the overtime loss to Jax State. The defense is legit. The offense is showing flashes in conference play. 

The good news is that the schedule eases up on Sam Houston moving forward. Their next five opponents were a combined 11-19 entering Week 6. It isn’t unreasonable to expect the Bearkats to win five in a row starting with the Wednesday game at New Mexico State. After that, Sam Houston plays FIU, UTEP, Kennesaw State, and La Tech. The season ends at home against Middle Tennessee State. Only a road game in Week 12 against Western Kentucky pits Sam Houston against a team that should enter as a heavy favorite. 

Adjusting from FCS powerhouse to FBS newcomer is hard. Most transitions don’t go like the one at James Madison. But jump off the Bearkat bandwagon at your own risk. Six wins is still possible. 

ONE QUESTION 

Is it time to panic in Fort Worth? 

The 12-0 start for Sonny Dykes at TCU feels like forever ago. Since then, the Horned Frogs are 4-5 and are off to a 3-3 start in 2023. The three wins in 2023 were against FCS opponent Nicholls, G5 opponent SMU, and recent G5 graduate Houston. The only win over a true-blue Power Five team in the last nine games was the victory over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl. 

Plenty of onlookers had concerns over the hiring of Kendall Briles, and not just because of the off-field scandals at Baylor. His offenses simply haven’t been that good. No one in Arkansas cried over his departure. And Frog fans are learning why. TCU was blanked in the second half against West Virginia in the Week 5 loss. The Horned Frogs only managed two touchdowns against Iowa State in the Week 6 defeat, and one of those came in garbage time with a backup quarterback. As Jamie Plunkett pointed out on Twitter, TCU has eight punts in its last 16 drives. The team has more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2) in that period. It’s had two field goals blocked and two turnovers on downs in that span. 

The 2023 season was always going to be a step back. The Horned Frogs lost a Heisman Trophy runner-up at quarterback and NFL talent at nearly every position unit on the football field. The question was how big of a step back? TCU hoped to avoid the Baylor fall the Bears suffered after the 2021 season, but a 6-6 record might be exactly what is in store for the Frogs. 

ONE PREDICTION

At least one Texas team wins a conference crown: The 2023 season continued to brutalize teams from the Lone Star State in Week 6. Five of the top six teams on the FBS Power Poll fell over the weekend, including Texas and Texas A&M in conference-shaping matchups. Not a single team in Texas sits atop their conference or division standings. Only one team – the Longhorns – have fewer than two losses. Only four teams – Texas, Texas A&M, Texas State, and SMU – have winning records. The 13 FBS teams in Texas are a combined 34-39 on the season. 

But not all hope is lost. Texas is still a Big 12 contender that controls its own destiny despite the Red River Rivalry loss. Texas State and SMU are also still in their respective conference races. UTSA struggled in non-conference but rebounded in Week 6 with an AAC win over Temple. At least one of those teams plays for a conference crown, and we’re still holding out hope that one of them wins it. Texas feels like the team with the best chance, but don’t count out the Mustangs and Roadrunners in a wide-open AAC.