Where do we even start after a wild Week 5 of action across the Lone Star State? 

The Baylor Bears mounted the biggest comeback in school history to beat UCF and potentially save their 2023 season – and Dave Aranda’s job. Texas State held on in the second half to beat Southern Miss for the Bobcats’ fourth win of the season, which matches the win total from 2022. Texas and Texas A&M continued marches towards conference contention, while Texas Tech returned home to beat Houston. 

The 411 provides four truths, one question, and one prediction for subscribers after each week of the regular season. Believe it or not, but we are over a third of the way through the slate. UTEP is halfway through its schedule after dropping to 1-5. 

FOUR TRUTHS 

Texas A&M is an SEC West contender: The loss of starting quarterback Conner Weigman won’t be the thing that derails Texas A&M’s hopes of claiming an SEC West title in year six under Jimbo Fisher – at least not if the second half against Auburn and the Week 5 win over Arkansas is any indication. Max Johnson threw two touchdowns in relief duty in Week 4 against Auburn. He threw for 210 yards and two more touchdowns against Arkansas, adding 57 yards on nine carries as a runner. 

But it isn’t the quarterback play that’ll take the Aggies to an SEC West title. That is up to the Wrecking Crew defense, and through two SEC games, that unit is playing at a conference championship level. They looked much better against the Razorback offense than LSU did a week before, at least. The Aggies held Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson to 135 total yards, including only three yards as a runner. The defense sacked him seven times. Arkansas managed just 174 yards of total offense. 

Offensively, the Aggies don’t need Johnson to be Manziel. That’s the upside of tremendous recruiting success. If Johnson can avoid the type of interception he threw to start the third quarter, the Aggies are talented enough to score points. Evan Stewart might be the best wide receiver in the SEC. Ainias Smith, Noah Thomas, and Moose Muhammad III are all studs. Tight end Jake Johnson continues to impress. Oh, and the Aggies are starting to find a running game. Le’Veon Moss finished with 107 yards on 17 carries. As a team, Texas A&M ran the ball 39 times for 204 yards – an average of 5.2 yards a carry. 

The SEC is down in 2023. Alabama comes to College Station in Week 6. LSU has already lost two gaems. Ole Miss and Tennessee look to be inconsistent teams with as many question marks as the Aggies - maybe more. If Texas A&M can knock off the Crimson Tide at home this week, the Aggies are alone in first place of the SEC West with a tiebreaker over the most likely contender to the crown. 

The bell cow emerges for Longhorns: Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters before the season that a running back would emerge as the go-to guy in the backfield. One always does in his offense, Sark pointed out, noting that he’s had a 1,000-yard rusher in every season he’s called plays. The first option appeared to be true freshman C.J. Baxter, who started the first game for the Longhorns. 

Jonathon Brooks began laying his claim late against Alabama, however, icing the Crimson Tide with a series of fourth quarter runs to seal the road victory. He continued that success the next week against Wyoming with 164 yards on 21 carries. He ran for 106 yards and a pair of scores last week in a win over Baylor. 

In the blowout win over Kansas, Brooks set a career high with 217 yards – his first time breaking the 200-yard mark. Texas great Bijan Robinson only did that three times in his career, including the 2022 win over Kansas. That victory over the Jayhawks was the only time Brooks had topped the century mark heading into the season. He’s now done it three weeks in a row ahead of the Red River Rivalry game. Brooks enters Week 6 with 596 yards and five rushing touchdowns on 85 carries. He’s on pace for 1,430 rushing yards in a 12-game regular season. 

The first two years of the Sark era were defined by second-half collapses and playing down to the competition. The emergence of a true running game post Robinson and Roschon Johnson has helped the Longhorns wear down and outlast opponents in a way they couldn't in previous seasons. The Longhorns have scored over 30 points in each of their five wins. All five victories have also been by double digits, including the 10-point win on the road against Alabama. Texas has outscored opponents 100-28 in the second half and 56-15 in the fourth quarter. 

Baylor saves season: The Bears were left for dead when UCF took a 35-7 lead in the third quarter. The offense wasn’t sharp despite the return of quarterback Blake Shapen. The defense allowed 13.1 yards per run in the first half. A 1-4 start looked certain, and the fan base was ready to discuss the potential future – or lack thereof – for Dave Aranda in Waco. A comeback didn’t look possible. 

Baylor awoke from its hibernation at the last possible second. The Bears scored 29 points to end the game to win 36-35 on the road against a solid UCF squad. Shapen threw for 293 yards and a touchdown. Richard Reese topped 100 yards on 16 carries. Monaray Baldwin finished the game with 150 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. The defense held UCF to seven second half points and Caden Jenkins took a fumble back 72 yards for a defensive score. A 25-yard field goal gave Baylor its first lead of the game. 

Baylor needed the win like Bears need honey. Aranda’s crew had gone over 300 days since their last FBS win. The last time Baylor won a game against an FBS opponent was on Nov. 5 against Oklahoma. The win over UCF snapped a seven-game losing streak to FBS teams. 

All of a sudden a bowl bid doesn’t seem like a mirage. Baylor hosts a Texas Tech squad that’s struggled on the road under Joey McGuire in Week 7. The Bears then face Cincinnati, Iowa State, and Houston following an idle week. Now at 2-3, Baylor could easily be 6-3 or 5-4 heading into the final three games of the season, which includes a home game against West Virginia. 

No place like home for Red Raiders: Texas Tech under Joey McGuire is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde situation through 18 games. The 49-28 win over Houston in Week 5 brings Texas Tech’s home record to 8-2 in the McGuire era. The only losses at Jones AT&T were to Baylor in 2022 and Oregon in 2023. Conversely, the Red Raiders are 1-6 on the road, including 0-2 in 2023. They are 1-0 in neutral site games thanks to a win over Ole Miss in last year’s Texas Bowl. McGuire is now 10-8 in his first 18 games as a collegiate head coach. 

Four of Texas Tech’s final seven games are on the road. The three home games are against Kansas State, TCU, and UCF. In theory, those are three of the hardest four games left on the schedule. Even a 2-1 record in those games means that the Red Raiders need to find a couple of wins on the road to reach bowl eligibility for the third straight season – a feat they haven’t pulled off since 2010. 

The first road test takes place in Week 6 with a trip to Baylor to face a Bears team that stormed back to beat UCF and save its season last week. The Red Raiders also travel to BYU, Kansas, and Texas before the end of 2022. 

ONE QUESTION 

Is Texas State a Sun Belt contender? 

Don’t look now but the Bobcats have matched their 2022 win total by the end of Week 5 of the 2023 campaign. They are 4-1 for the first time as an FBS program and first time overall since 2005 as an FCS program. G.J. Kinne is the first coach to win four of his first five games at Texas State since John O’Hara in 1983. They’ve beaten Baylor and Nevada. They’re 1-0 in conference play after the win against Southern Miss. This team is cooking. 

But where does it stop? Does it stop? Texas State is on the road in Week 6 for a pivotal game against Louisiana. A win puts the Bobcats on the doorstep of their first bowl invite and in the conversation to win a weak Sun Belt West division. The heavyweights appear to be stashed on the East side, which provides the Bobcats with a real route to a conference title game. The offense is there. The defense has shown flashes. The next step is to become a four-quarter football team. Texas State struggled in the first half against Nevada and in the second half against Southern Miss. It’ll take 60 minutes of quality football to knock off fellow contenders like Louisiana. 

ONE PREDICTION 

Rice reaches six wins 

Texas State isn’t the only perennial Cinderella overachieving through five weeks of the 2023 campaign. Rice is 3-2 after a seven-point victory over East Carolina. The Owls are now 3-0 at home, including the victory over Houston. Rice is 1-1 in AAC play and three wins away from six wins and a second consecutive season of bowl eligibility. The Owls haven’t posted a six-win regular season since 2014 and haven’t gone to consecutive bowls since reaching three in a row from 2012 to 2014. 

Rice can reach four wins in Week 6 in a home game against winless UConn. The record could become 5-2 by Oct. 19 after a road game against Tulsa. The Owls finish the regular season at Charlotte and at home against FAU. There are easily three more wins on the schedule and it’d be a disappointment at this point not to finish the season at .500 or better.