The 411 is back after an eventful Week 4 across Texas and the college football landscape. The Longhorns beatdown the Baylor Bears in the final contest between two old foes in the Big 12. TCU head coach Sonny Dykes won his fourth consecutive Battle for the Iron Skillet in a win over SMU. Texas A&M survived an injury to its quarterback to beat Auburn. And Texas State stormed back against Nevada to improve to 3-1 on the season. 

Let's take a look across the Lone Star State with four truths, one prediction, and one question. 

FOUR TRUTHS 

Prove it time for Texas: The next two weeks could dictate Texas’ upside in 2023. Beat Kansas at home in Week 5 and Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry in Week 6 and the Longhorns are firmly in the College Football Playoff race. Drop one of those games and Texas must be perfect the rest of the way, including in a potential Big 12 title game, to reach those heights. Two losses and the best Texas can hope for is a Big 12 crown. A three-game stretch starting on Oct. 28 against BYU and continuing with games against Kansas State and TCU would be the next big challenge for the Longhorns if they can get past Kansas and Oklahoma and head into the idle week at 6-0. 

Finding the weak spots in the Texas football team becomes harder with each passing performance. The Longhorns proved capable of beating a top team on the road in Week 2 against Alabama. They passed another test on Saturday in a runaway win over the Bears. Texas is known as a program that plays with its food and Baylor was ripe to be overlooked thanks to losses against Texas State and Utah. 

Texas didn’t fall into that honey hole, however. The best way to describe the performance in the win was mature. The Longhorns bullied Baylor in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The interior defensive line rotation of Byron Murphy, Alfred Collins, and T’Vondre Sweat rivals any trio in the state. Add linebacker Jaylan Ford and a talented secondary to go alongside emerging pass rushers, and there wasn’t much Baylor could do offensively. The only Achilles heel for the Longhorns defensively appears to be when their safeties get stuck in 1-on-1 coverage down the field. Baylor couldn’t block the Longhorns long enough to capitalize on that deficiency with any consistency. 

The offense was efficient and balanced. Ewers finished with 293 yards and one passing touchdown on 18 of 23 through the air. He also ran for a score. Jonathon Brooks eclipsed 100 yards on 18 carries, adding two scores on the ground. True freshman CJ Baxter also ran for a touchdown in the first half. Ja’Tavion Sanders paced the Longhorns with five catches for 110 yards. Xavier Worthy caught the team’s only touchdown pass. 

Time to reset expectations in Lubbock: Forgive Texas Tech fans for expectations. The first year of the Joey McGuire included eight wins and the first winning record in the Big 12 since Mike Leach roamed the sidelines. Two of those eight wins were victories over future SEC teams Texas and Oklahoma. With most of the offense back, including the quarterback, leading rusher, leading receiver, and the entire starting offensive line, the Red Raiders were a dark horse pick in the Big 12 by many prognosticators. After all, Baylor exploded to a Big 12 crown in Dave Aranda’s second season in Waco. Sonny Dykes led TCU to a perfect regular season and a trip to the College Football Playoff in year 1. Why not Texas Tech? 

The first three weeks have offered a sobering answer. The offensive line isn’t improved. The quarterback play was inconsistent before the injury to Tyler Shough, and the passing game didn’t improve when Behren Morton was inserted into the starting lineup. Even with a strong game by running back Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech fell to 1-3 on the season and 0-1 in the Big 12. The Red Raiders are now 1-6 on the road under McGuire. They are 8-2 at home. 

Shough is out for the season with a broken fibula. That is his third consecutive season-altering injury as the quarterback of Texas Tech. 

Bad news, Bears: Each week feels like a new bottom for the 2023 Baylor football team. Fans thought it surely couldn’t get worse than the Week 1 home loss to Texas State, but each successive performance sucks more confidence away from the future of this program. The Bears are now 1-3 after four weeks and staring down the barrel of a third losing season in four tries under Dave Aranda. The 12-win 2021 season feels like forever ago for the Baylor faithful. 

The frustrations continued in the blowout loss. Playing with a backup quarterback against a top five team in the nation was never an ideal situation, but the Bears stood no chance from kickoff. The offensive line was demolished. The defensive line couldn’t set an edge. The skill position players couldn’t make plays. The only thing working for Baylor was punting to Texas because the Longhorns muffed a pair. 

The eventual return of Blake Shapen will help, but the Bears’ problems extend beyond the quarterback position. They won in 2021 with a great running game and an even better defense. The Bears possess neither of those things in 2023. Baylor was outrushed 95 to 11 in the first half. Texas recorded five sacks by the end of the third quarter. 

The Bears ended the 2022 season on a five-game losing streak. That was extended to seven prior to the win over Long Island in Week 3, but with the loss to Texas in Week 4, Baylor is on an eight-game losing streak to FBS teams that dates to a win over Texas Tech on Oct. 29 – over 320 days ago. 

A 1-5 start isn’t out of the question. Baylor heads on the road in Week 5 for the first time all season to take on a solid UCF squad. Week 6 is a home game against Texas Tech – a program that is also 1-3 after four games. Reaching six wins for bowl eligibility seems impossible, at least on paper. The Bears need to win five of their next eight to get to 6-6. Finding those five wins is tough considering the play of both sides of the ball. 

Break up the Bobcats: Texas State was down 17-0 in what looked like a callback to frustrating times for the Bobcats. The offense was sputtering, mental mistakes were costing points, and the defense was clinging on for dear life. Sound familiar? 

Texas State proved it was a new team in a dominating second half in which the Bobcats scored 35 unanswered points to cruise to their third victory of the season. That’s halfway to bowl eligibility and one win away from matching their win totals of 2022 and 2021. Texas State hasn’t won more than four games since 2014. They’ve only finished above .500 once.  

ONE PREDICTION 

Either SMU or UTSA plays in the AAC championship game 

Don’t sell your stock just yet on the Mustangs and Roadrunners despite a few rough weeks in the non-conference slate. The conference schedule will offer a reprieve. SMU was within four points of a solid Oklahoma squad in Norman during the fourth quarter. UTSA knows how to bounce back from tough starts to win a conference title. 

I feel more bullish on SMU. The Mustangs possess a good stable of running backs and the passing game with Preston Stone at quarterback should only improve. The secondaries of Oklahoma and TCU are better than any the Mustangs will see on the American schedule. The SMU schedule also gives Rhett Lashlee’s team a legitimate shot. They don’t play Tulane or UTSA in the regular season. 

UTSA’s shot is contingent on a healthy Frank Harris. UTSA’s beset player in program history missed the last two games due to a turf toe. He was rusty in the game against Houston after enduring four knee surgeries in the offseason. The championship mettle is enough to keep belief in San Antonio – and the fact that the Roadrunners defense won’t see a weird offense like Army or the talent level of Tennessee. 

I’m not sure either team can win the conference. I’d still put my money on Tulane, and maybe even Memphis, but I still hold out belief (hope?) that at least one Texas team plays in the championship game. 

ONE QUESTION 

Is Texas A&M toast without quarterback Conner Weigman? 

The Aggies passed their first SEC test Saturday with a win over Auburn, but the 17-point margin doesn’t tell the whole story. True to form in College Station, even big wins end with doom-and-gloom in the Jimbo Fisher era. Instead of answering questions about offensive execution in the second half or a four-quarter performance from the Wrecking Crew, Fisher faced questions about the ankle injury suffered by his starting quarterback late in the second quarter. Weigman was 8 of 14 for 70 yards in the face of constant pressure. 

Backup Max Johnson looked great in relief, especially in the third quarter. He threw two touchdown passes, including one to his brother, Jake. He finished the game 7 of 11 for 123 yards. Texas A&M scored more points (21) in the second half with Johnson in charge than it did with Weigman at the helm (6). 

But the biggest difference between the first and the second half wasn’t the passing game – it was the rushing attack. Texas A&M ran the ball 33 times for 226 yards – 6.3 yards a carry. Le’Veon Moss rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown. Amari Daniels ended the game with 85. Conversely, the defense held Auburn to 3.5 yards a carry on 41 attempts. The defensive line recorded seven sacks, which is more than half of the 2022 season total. 

The SEC West is as winnable as it gets. Alabama comes to Kyle Field in Week 4 with plenty of questions remaining at quarterback despite a win over Ole Miss. The Rebels and Tennessee – two tough road games ahead - have their own struggles. LSU already has a loss. Arkansas and Mississippi State are mid. 

There is no timetable on Weigman’s return. Fisher said after the game that the X-Rays were negative. Even with Johnson at quarterback, Texas A&M has plenty of weapons and the sheer talent to push any of those teams on the schedule. Maybe it’ll force the Aggies to lean on the run game and play better defense.