The FBS ranks in the state of Texas experienced another wacky and wild slate of football in Week 2. Texas beat Alabama. Texas A&M fell on the road to Miami. Rice pulled the shocker of Week 2 with a Bayou Bucket win over rival Houston. And UTSA and Texas State packed nearly 50,000 people in the Alamodome to prove it is one of the best rivalries in Texas. 

We take a quick look across the state in the 411, which provides four truths, one prediction, and one question following a week of action. 

FOUR TRUTHS 

Texas breaks the curse: The injury Colt McCoy suffered against Alabama in the Rose Bowl on the first day of 2010 effectively ended the golden years of the Mack Brown era. The Longhorns had won double digit games in nine straight seasons – the longest in program history – prior to the five-win 2010 season. Brown rebounded to win 25 games over his final three seasons in charge, but the reign was dead. 

ESPN floated a graphic leading into the 2023 meeting between Texas and Alabama that told the next chapter to their respective college football stories. Alabama held an .895 winning percentage with seven conference titles and five national championships since that 2010 BCS National Championship Game clash. Texas’ winning percentage since that game was .561. The Longhorns haven’t won a single conference or national title since. In fact, Texas has as many losing seasons (5) since 2010 than Alabama has national titles. 

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian was 13-12 over two years leading into the 2023 season in a tenure mostly defined by second-half failures. He’s yet to win 10 games or a conference championship in his career as a head coach. Former five-star quarterback Quinn Ewers was hurt early during a one-point loss to Alabama in 2022 in a bit of déjà vu. 

Texas entered the 2023 contest on the road against Alabama needing a signature win to prove the concept is working, and not just to the outside world. Sark needed a win over former mentor Nick Saban. Ewers needed redemption after the injury. The program needed to prove capable of winning a four-quarter game against a quality opponent. Check. Check. And check. 

Not only did Texas knock off Alabama, but they did so in the most Alabama way possible. The Longhorns wore down Alabama with body shots and then delivered a devastating knockout blow in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Crimson Tide 21-8 in the final frame. 

The only thing standing in the way of Texas winning the Big 12 championship and playing in the College Football Playoff is Texas. The Longhorns are back. And maybe better than they’ve been since Vince Young roamed campus. 

Aggies wash out in Miami: Any optimism that the 2023 season would provide a smooth start crashed on Saturday with an upset loss on the road against Miami. Jimbo Fisher has still only started one season in College Station at 2-0 in six tries. As Brandon Marcello of 247Sports.com pointed out on Twitter (I’m not calling it the other name), Texas A&M is 1-7 in its last eight games against Power Five teams and have now lost seven straight on the road. Through 62 games, Kevin Sumlin had three more wins than Fisher. 

Most of the Texas A&M offseason coverage focused on the offense – specifically on the relationship between Fisher and new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. And while the offense wasn’t perfect, the Aggies scored 33 points on the road. It was the defense and special teams that let down the 12th Man. Miami scored 48 points, including a kickoff return for a touchdown. 

The elephant in the room, of course, is the amount of guaranteed money Fisher is owed by Texas A&M if they want to make a change. With the Longhorns seemingly on the rise ahead of their move to the SEC and a showdown in Kyle Field looming in 2024, no amount of money will keep the Aggies from making a change if the wheels fall off in SEC play. 

Two sides of the Shough coin: In many ways, Texas Tech isn’t within striking distance of an upset over a top 15 team without Shough. He ran for 101 yards on 23 carries and threw for 282 yards on 40 attempts. He scored all four of the team’s touchdowns. He was also responsible for the team’s four turnovers. Those four turnovers directly resulted in 10 Oregon points, and the Ducks won by eight points. 

Shough’s turnovers also cost Texas Tech momentum at inopportune times. He fumbled deep in the red zone during the second quarter as the Red Raiders were close to taking a lead before halftime. Instead, Oregon went down the field, kicked a field goal, and took an 18-13 lead into halftime. He later threw an interception in the third quarter one play after a tipped punt gave the offense possession inside Oregon territory. The last interception gave Oregon an eight-point lead with 35 seconds left in the game. 

Shough’s toughness is unquestioned. He’s battled through two major shoulder injuries in his first two seasons at Texas Tech and returned for 2023 after beating out Behren Morton in the offseason. But if Morton is the quarterback of the future and Shough can’t protect the football, maybe the smart thing is to play the young guy and get him a full game before the start of Big 12 play. 

That was more about Rice than Houston: The easy thing to do after seeing the 43-41 Rice win over Houston in the Bayou Bucket Classic is to focus on the Cougars’ failures, but that’s missing the point. Rice isn’t a pushover. The Owls have quietly built a pesky football team with weapons on offense and playmakers on defense. Ask Houston. From quarterback JT Daniels to wide receiver Luke McCaffrey, the Owls have some dudes on offense. That’s also true defensively. Head coach Mike Bloomgren has steadily improved his team each season and the record recruiting success in the 2023 cycle proves the recipe is working. Ten-win seasons and conference titles will always be hard to come by at an institution like Rice, but a win over Houston should help Bloom illustrate his proof of concept has merit. 

ONE PREDICTION 

Texas State reaches a bowl game 

The Bobcats proved the Week 1 win over Baylor wasn’t a fluke with a spirited effort on the road against the Roadrunners. Texas State and UTSA were tied at 10 at halftime and the Bobcats were a few plays away from moving to 2-0. The future is undoubtedly bright in San Marcos under G.J. Kinne, but that future might be right now. Texas State might not play two better teams the rest of the way than Baylor and UTSA and the Bobcats more than passed both tests. With winnable games against Jax State and Nevada at home up next, Kinne’s squad could be 2-2 or maybe even 3-1 entering Sun Belt play. Three or four conference wins is doable with the way Texas State is playing. 

ONE QUESTION 

What is the breaking point at Baylor? 

This feels crazy to type 14 games removed from winning a Sugar Bowl after the 2021 season, but Dave Aranda’s Bears are barreling towards their second straight losing season, which would be his third total in four years in charge. Baylor was 2-7 in 2020 before rebounding to win a program record 12 games as well as the Big 12 and Sugar Bowl championship. Baylor took a step backwards in 2022 with a 6-7 record. 

Baylor hoped a transfer portal infused roster and a change at defensive coordinator would get the team back on track, but the Bears enter Week 3 with an 0-2 record after a loss at home to Utah. A game against Rhode Island in Week 3 should put Baylor in the win column, but Week 4 through Week 6 consists of games against Texas, UCF, and Texas Tech. A 1-5 start isn’t out of the question and a third losing season in four tries would cause discussions in Waco.