The recent Texas State 7v7 Tournament had a bit of everything – great teams, elite prospects, high heat. The one thing it didn’t provide was top-ranked recruits committed to in-state schools. That’s because there aren’t any. The highest-rated Texas high school product pledged to an in-state program is Longview Pine Tree defensive tackle Dealyn Evans, and he sits at 17 on the DCTF Hot 100 for the 2024 cycle. Eleven of the 13 highest-rated in-state commits are headed out of state. 

Texas’ highest pledge was Clear Lake athlete Hunter Moddon at 32, but he recently opened his recruitment back up. That means 62nd-ranked Trey Owens, a quarterback from Cy-Fair, is the highest-ranked in-state player pledged to the Longhorns. Of their seven commits in the 2024 cycle, only three are from Texas – Owens and Smithson Valley wide receiver Freddie Dubose and new pledge Nate Kibble. 

Thirteen of the top 30 players in Texas for the 2024 cycle are committed to a school. Only two of those players – Evans and new Houston commit Maurice Williams – are pledged to an in-state school. Oklahoma has three commits in the top 30. Ohio State and Florida hold two. Of the 13 players in the top 30 that are committed, 10 of them are headed to the SEC or the Big 10. The only outliers are a single commitment each for Houston, Oregon and Clemson.

The four in-state programs leading the charge in the Big 12 for 2024 and beyond – Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, and Houston – combine for one commitment in the top 30. The news gets better after the top 30. Texas Tech possesses five commitments in the top 100, tied for the most in the state with TCU. Hutto quarterback Will Hammond (37th) is the highest-rated in-state commit for the Red Raiders. 

Baylor’s top-rated in-state pledge is Lorena wide receiver Jadon Porter, who ranks 40th in the state. Two of the top 100 players in Texas are currently committed to the Bears. TCU’s first of five pledges on the list doesn’t show up until 48th-ranked Gekyle Bake, a wide receiver from Brownsboro. Houston’s lone commitment on the list was 88th-ranked defensive end Zion Taylor of Alvin Shadow Creek until the Cougars flipped his teammate, Williams, from LSU over the weekend.  

Those four schools are sure to load up on in-state commits peppered throughout the top 100 as the cycle goes on, but the lack of high-end pledges for Texas and Texas A&M jumps off the page. The Aggies and Longhorns hold a combined four commitments on the list, and none of those are from top 25 players. Only three of Texas A&M’s 10 commitments in the current class play high school football in Texas. 

And while there is a lot of time between now and the first signing period in December, over half of the top 100 is already committed to a program. Fifty-four of the 100 players are pledged, and 33 of those players are headed out of state. Seventeen of those 33 out-of-state commitments are headed to either the SEC or Big 10. Three others are committed to Notre Dame. Staffs with strong Texas ties such as Arizona State are also performing well. 

Players always leave Texas. That’s the price of operating in such a big state. Prospects in Houston are closer to LSU than Texas Tech or TCU. The drive from Dallas to Norman, Oklahoma is nearly identical as the one to Austin without even factoring in traffic heading south through Temple. Add in more options for travel and NIL stipends to pay for that family travel, and it is easy to understand why the Lone Star State borders are no longer gravitational. 

But with the playoff expanding, future Big 12 schools such as Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, and Houston must find ways to keep top talent in Texas. Opportunities in the NIL space and through the transfer market might help. The 2023 classes at TCU, Houston, and even SMU are littered with former big-time Texas high school prospects returning home after beginning their careers outside of our borders. TCU, Texas Tech, and Baylor signed three of the best four Big 12 classes in the 2023 cycle if we remove Texas and Oklahoma. TCU led the way with the 20th-ranked class. Texas Tech is currently the highest-ranked in the 2024 cycle with the 20th-best class. 

Panicking over recruiting results in June is the wrong approach. Trends are appearing for the class, however, and it looks like a cycle with a lot of migration out of the state by some of the best players in Texas. Texas and Texas A&M combined to sign six of the top eight players in the 2023 cycle and 10 of the top 13 in 2022. Maybe a back log of on-campus talent is pushing the new elite recruits elsewhere. 

Six of the top seven players on our rankings remain uncommitted. Five-star wide receiver Micah Hudson is a Texas Tech lean. Four-star cornerback Kobe Black is reportedly high on the Longhorns. Players such as Colin Simmons, Drelon Miller, and Justin Williams all have in-state options. As does Mr. Texas Football Terry Bussey. 

The reasons matter less than the outcome. The ability for conferences such as the Big 12 to survive a post realignment world with so much concentrated talent, attention, and money funneling to two conferences – the SEC and Big 10 – hinges on the individual team’s capacity to recruit at a high level. The coaches build culture. The X’s and O’s win games. The Joes determine championships. And the Texas teams don’t stand much of a chance to hoist the national championship trophy, even with an expanded playoff, unless more of the Joes stay at home.  

We rightfully claim to field the best high school football in the country here in the great state of Texas. For that superiority to trickle up to the college level, the big programs within the Lone Star State must convince the best Texas high school players to stay home.