The gap between spring games and media days leaves us with nothing to do as college football nerds besides project and predict. Gambling lines with potential win totals for each of the FBS teams are beginning to trickle into the public betting arena. The Lone Star State is home to 13 FBS programs in 2023 thanks to the addition of Sam Houston. 

Here, we make the case for the over and the under for each team’s win total continuing with the seven G5 programs. We’ll released the P5 projections earlier this week.  

Lines set by FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 5. 

SMU MUSTANGS 

The line: 7.5

Case for the over: Look at the schedule. The new-look AAC isn’t as stacked as the previous version. And the two other betting favorites – Tulane and UTSA – aren’t on the Mustangs’ schedule. Head coach Rhett Lashlee retooled the defense through the transfer portal. The wide receiver room should be more balanced, and the running game more explosive. Quarterback Preston Stone has waited for this moment for two seasons. If he can stay healthy and the defense takes a step forward, SMU should smash past 7.5 wins. 

Case for the under: Welcoming in so many fresh faces isn’t without potential pitfalls. Can a team mashed together over 18 months make a run for a conference title? Stone was injured in his first career start and doesn’t have a lot of experience. Star receiver Rashee Rice is now in the NFL. SMU was dreadful on the defensive side of the ball in 2022 and nothing says the new faces guarantee enough improvement to push towards an AAC crown. The non-conference schedule includes probable losses to TCU and Oklahoma. SMU would need six AAC wins on top of a 2-2 non-conference record to reach eight wins and cash the over. 

UTSA ROADRUNNERS 

The line: 7.5

Case for the over: Experience. And not just playing football together but winning together. UTSA returns Frank Harris at quarterback, Kevorian Barnes at running back, and a pair of star wide receivers in Joshua Cephus and J.T. Clark. Jeff Traylor calls the offensive and defensive lines the best he’s had in San Antonio. That’s scary considering the Roadrunners ended their time in Conference USA with a pair of titles. The only teams with more wins than UTSA since the start of 2021 are Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan. 

Case for the under: The non-conference schedule includes contests against Houston, Army, and Tennessee. A new-look Texas State squad in Week 2 is no pushover. Some of the AAC schedule is familiar with games against old C-USA rivals such as North Texas, UAB, and Rice. But new foes such as Tulane, FAU, and East Carolina will prove tricky. A 2-2 start would require a 6-2 AAC record to cash the over. 

NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN

The line: 6.5

Case for the over: Eric Morris knows how to win. He turned a dreadful Incarnate Word program into an FCS contender, and he hopes to take the Mean Green to the next step. And it isn’t like he inherited a roster without success. They played for a C-USA title in 2022 and former head coach Seth Littrell had the program in a bowl game almost every season. An improved offensive attack could unlock North Texas. Transfer quarterback Chandler Rogers showed his potential in the spring game. The running back room remains a strength, as does the secondary. It is possible for North Texas to start the season 5-1 or even 6-0 with an upset over Cal in Week 1. A Week 12 constes with Tulsa is also winnable. All North Texas must do is steal one from UTSA, SMU, UAB, Memphis, or Tulane to hit the over. 

Case for the under: Year 1 is never easy for a head football coach. The Mean Green lost starting quarterback Austin Aune and over 200 tackles from the linebacker position. The offensive line lacks true offensive tackles and the transfer portal hurt the wide receiver and defensive end position. The defense is transitioning to an odd man front and the roster might not feature enough big bodies up front to pull it off. The second half of the schedule is a brutal run. 

UTEP MINERS  

The line: 5.5

Case for the over: Dana Dimel returns quarterback Gavin Hardison and his favorite target, Tyrin Smith, to the offense in 2023. Four of the five offensive line starters also return, as does El Paso native Deion Hankins at running back. The defense is the strength of the team. Linebacker Tyrice Knight is an all-conference player, as are defensive linemen Praise Amaewhule and Keenan Stewart. The secondary is marshalled by the hard-hitting Kobe Hylton. And as always, Dimel secured a strong haul of JUCO talent to add depth and provide a boost to positions in need. The new-look C-USA schedule also provides the Miners with more competition on their level. 

Case for the under: Hardison struggled at times in 2022 and the offense can be too reliant on the big play. The loss of Ronald Awatt in the backfield also won’t help. The defense lost leading sacker Jadrian Taylor and the linebacker room is without Cal Wallerstedt. History is not on the side of the over for UTEP. The Miners have won six or more games just three times since 2006. A 1-4 start isn’t out of the question with a Week 0 road game against new conference foe Jax State followed up with non-conference games against the likes of Northwestern, Arizona, and UNLV. Even the Week 1 home game against FCS Incarnate Word isn’t a guaranteed win. 

RICE OWLS 

The line: 4.5

Case for the over: The Owls won five games in 2022 and still felt like they underachieved given a disappointing loss to Charlotte. Fresh off a bowl game experience thanks to a high APR, Rice feels ready to compete in the new-look AAC alongside in-state rivals such as UTSA and North Texas. Quarterback was addressed with the arrival of former five-star JT Daniels. The wide receiver room – led by Luke McCaffrey – is stacked. The defense should take a step forward thanks to a few personnel changes, and the addition of Derek Mason as an analyst. Josh Pearcy is a true pass rushing threat and the secondary possesses plenty of experience. 

Case for the under: Five wins is rarely a guarantee for the Rice Owls. The non-conference schedule means most of those wins must come in conference play, and the in-conference schedule is tougher as an American Athletic Conference member. The Owls start the season with games against Texas and Houston. A three-game stretch in the meat of the AAC schedule starts with Tulane, continues with SMU, and ends with a trip to UTSA. If it comes down to the last game of the season, a home game against FAU doesn’t offer much hope. 

TEXAS STATE BOBCATS

The line: 4.5

Case for the over: Head coach GJ Kinne waltzed into San Antonio as a first-year head coach and led Incarnate Word to a conference title and a trip to the FCS semifinals. He also helped transfer quarterback Lindsey Scott win the Walter Payton Award, which is the Heisman of FCS football. Texas State welcomed in a new coaching staff and 51 new scholarship players in the six months since firing Jake Spavital. Those transfers include quarterback Malik Hornsby and a dozen members of the UIW team that won double-digit games last year, including a victory over a Nevada team that knocked off Texas State. Lincoln Pare leads a strong running back room and the defense was quietly one of the best in Texas last year. 

Case for the under: Integrating 51 new faces and a whole new coaching staff is a chore, and one without much of a blueprint. The schedule is another hinderance. The Bobcats start the season with trips to Baylor and UTSA. Week 4 is a home game against a Nevada team that beat them a year earlier. A 1-3 start means that Texas State would need four Sun Belt wins to avoid the under. The program has only won more than three conference games in a season once in its 11-year history. 

SAM HOUSTON BEARKATS 

The line: 3.5

Case for the over: Winning is what head coach K.C. Keeler knows. He’s the only coach in FCS history to win a national championship with two different schools, including one with Sam Houston two seasons ago. The only active head coaches with more wins are Nick Saban, Mack Brown, and Brian Kelly. Sam Houston redshirted over a dozen upperclassmen last year to save eligibility for the 2023 voyage into the FBS ranks. The signing of transfer quarterback Grant Gunnell is also a potential boost. The front seven of the defense is FBS ready. The non-conference schedule is difficult, but the Bearkats roster thrives on adversity and should relish the opportunity to be underdogs. 

Case for the under: The top half of the Sam Houston roster is undoubtedly ready to compete at the FBS level. The depth at certain positions is scary, however. A grueling non-conference slate that includes BYU, Air Force, and Houston. The offense also struggled in 2022 and neither Keegan Shoemaker nor Gunnell is a proven commodity. A 0-5 start is possible thanks to contests with Jax State and Liberty to start the C-USA schedule.