Oklahoma and Texas dominated the perception of the Big 12 since the creation of the league. Even when the on-field results didn’t match, especially for the team in Austin, the conversations about the Big 12 always featured a burnt orange or crimson tint. That changes after the 2023 season thanks to news that the Longhorns and Sooners agreed with the conference on an exit plan after the season that will benefit the eight legacy programs in the Big 12 with a combined $100 million dollars. 

The loss of the two figure heads creates a power vacuum in the Big 12. The conference was the third-best in college football with Texas and Oklahoma, and it remains that without those two programs. The expanded playoff means the champion, and maybe a second team, gets a yearly invite to the College Football Playoff. But who steps into the light as the perennial favorite? The state of Texas provides four options. 

THE CASE FOR TCU 

Five-year record: 36-26

Avg. five-year recruiting ranking: 34.6

The Horned Frogs made their case in the 2022 season. Sonny Dykes & Co. rode an experienced roster to an undefeated regular season and a win over Big 10 champs Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl before running into Georgia. The DFW market, including the recruiting resources at the prep level and in the transfer portal for players hoping to return home, is a huge advantage for TCU. Money is also rarely an issue for the private school in Fort Worth. 

If talent acquisition is the name of the game, TCU is the best-poised team from Texas to rise to the top of the yearly Big 12 perception rankings, and we all know perception of talent plays a huge role in how we shape conversations about college football teams. TCU finished in the top 20 on the recruiting trail in 2023 and that’s without a full year of recruiting as the national runner-up. The Horned Frogs are also adding SEC talent such as Tommy Brockermeyer and JoJoe Earle – both DFW natives who signed with Alabama out of high school – to the roster. 

THE CASE FOR BAYLOR 

Five-year record: 38-25

Avg. five-year recruiting ranking: 39.4

Three different coaches have competed for Big 12 titles at Baylor over the last decade. Art Briles won 10 or more games in three of his final four seasons in Waco. Matt Rhule won 11 games in his final season. Current head coach Dave Aranda won 12 contests, a Big 12 title, and a Sugar Bowl in year two with the Bears. That’s without recruiting national top 20 classes. Baylor has routinely proven over the last decade that it can hang in the Big 12 against Oklahoma and Texas. It serves to reason that the Bears are in the mix to become the yearly favorite in the conference once those two recruiting behemoths are removed. 

If development is the name of the game, Baylor is arguably the top school in Texas at doing more with less at the Power Five level since the start of the 2010 season. The Bears have won more games over the last five years than any of the Texas-based teams staying in the Big 12, including Houston. And they don’t do it with four or five-star players. Guys such as Jalen Pitre and Terrell Bernard and JT Woods went from underrated recruits to NFL draft picks and Big 12 champions. Baylor already has the recipe; it just needs to continue to add the right ingredients to the roster and the coaching staff. 

THE CASE FOR TEXAS TECH 

Five-year record: 28-32

Avg. five-year recruiting ranking: 50.6

Mike Leach proved the Lubbock is a place that can host a perennial winner in the college football landscape. The Red Raiders won at least eight games and finished .500 or better in the Big 12 every year from 2002 to 2009. Leach never posted a losing record at Texas Tech in 10 seasons. The success dried up considerably in the years between Leach and first-year college head coach Joey McGuire, but all signs point to the former Cedar Hill High School head man returning West Texas back to football glory. His team beat Texas and Oklahoma at home for the first time in program history and posted a winning record in the Big 12 for the first time since 2009 – Leach’s last season in Lubbock. 

If energy and passion is the name of the game, Texas Tech might have everyone else whipped. Texas Tech’s alumni base and student population dwarfs private schools such as TCU and Baylor. The inclusion in the Big 12 over the last few decades means the fan base is more energized and connected than Houston’s, which was left in the cold when the Southwest Conference disbanded. The work in NIL collectives and in facility fundraising since McGuire’s arrival is proof positive that Texas Tech could jump to the front of the line in the Big 12 with continued on-field success.

THE CASE FOR HOUSTON 

Five-year record: 35-25

Avg. five-year recruiting ranking: 68.2

The Houston football program was relegated to the second tier of college football after the 1995 season when the Southwest Conference split up and the Cougars landed in Conference USA. They jumped to the American Athletic Conference in 2013 and flirted with national relevancy from the G5 level on a few occasions. Houston won 13 games in 2015 and 12 in 2021, but consistent success alludes the Cougars over the last few years. Houston is 20-7 in the last two seasons. 

If potential is the name of the game, Houston is positioned to make the quickest rise of any of the schools in Texas. The recruiting classes are already improving as Dana Holgorsen can use the Big 12 as a lure. Like TCU in DFW, the Cougars should also become a second destination for area players hoping to return home in the transfer portal. No area in the country produces more NFL players per capita than Houston. Add proximity to Louisiana and the Cougars should never lack for talent.