2022 record: 6-7 (-6 wins from 2021)

Texas Power Poll ranking: 7 of 12

THE GOOD 

True freshman running back Richard Reese emerged as a future all-conference performer with 972 yards and 14 touchdowns on 198 carries. The Bears finished with 182.38 rushing yards per game, which ranked 38thnationally. Reese, who was the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, averaged 4.9 yards a carry and was one of two players on the team with at least 100 attempts. Craig Williams ran the ball 101 times and averaged 5.5 yard a carry. 

The ability to run the ball allowed Baylor to be one of the best red zone conversion offenses in college football. The Bears ranked 16th nationally in touchdown percentage inside the redzone at 70.91 percent. 

Baylor’s offense was also great on fourth down. The unit was 52nd nationally with a 40.22 percent conversion rate on third down, but the Bears attempted the second-most fourth downs in FBS with 47, which only trailed Texas Tech. Baylor was 17th nationally in conversion rate on those attempts, converting 63.83 percent of the time. An offensive line led by Conner Galvin and Jacob Gall helped in those short-yardage situations on fourth down and in the red zone. 

Defensive tackle Siaki Ika was a first-team All-Big 12 selection after a solid junior campaign. Linebacker Dillon Doyle was named to the second team on defense and as a fullback on offense. 

THE BAD 

The passing game failed to take a step forward with Blake Shapen at quarterback full time. The Bears ranked 68th nationally with 231.5 passing yards per game. Shapen did complete 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,790 yards, but the big plays weren’t there consistently for the Bears. Baylor only threw 19 touchdown passes on the year, with Shapen tossing 17. He also threw 10 interceptions. The offense never found adequate replacements for wide receivers Tyquan Thornton and RJ Sneed. The team’s leading receiver – Monaray Baldwin – only accounted for 33 catches for 565 yards and four touchdowns.

The defense also took a step backwards. The 26.8 points allowed per game ranked 62nd nationally. Baylor ranked 62nd in rushing and passing defense. Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts was fired after the season because of the performance. Baylor’s defensive unit was 98th in red zone touchdown percentage allowed and 120th on third down, allowing conversions on 45.76 percent of attempts. 

THE UGLY 

Baylor limped to the finish line in 2022 with four straight losses to close out the season, including a 15-point defeat against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Bears were 6-3 and on a three-game winning streak entering the matchup against Kansas State at home on Nov. 12. The future Big 12 champions humbled Baylor in a 31-3 beatdown in Waco. The Bears lost in heart-breaking fashion a week later when TCU won on a last-second field goal. They then closed out the regular season with a 38-27 loss on the road to Texas. 

The defense never allowed more than 30 points in the 12-win 2021 season that culminated in a Big 12 championship and a win in the Sugar Bowl. The team went 3-1 in one-possession games that year. The most points allowed all year was 30 in a loss to TCU. Baylor’s defense allowed at least 31 points five times in 2022. The Bears were 2-3 in one-possession affairs. 

TEAM GRADES

Quarterback: C-
Running back: B-
Wide receiver/tight end: C-
Offensive line: B
Defensive line: B-
Linebacker: B-
Cornerback: C+
Safety: C+

BIGGEST OFFSEASON QUESTION

What is Baylor? 

The first three years under head coach Dave Aranda are best described as a roller coaster. The Bears went 2-7 in 2020, his first year in charge, before rebounding to win 12 games, the Big 12 championship, and the Sugar Bowl. They fell back down to earth in 2022 with a 6-7 record, including a 4-5 mark in conference play. Moving forward, is Baylor a program that struggles to reach .500 as it did in 2020 and 2022, or are the Bears poised to bounce back with a conference title run in 2023 such as the one in 2021? Baylor is 20-16 in the Aranda era. For reference, Matt Rhule was 19-20 and Art Briles was 65-37. 

WAY TOO EARLY 2023 OUTLOOK 

The Big 12 provides an odd journey in 2023 and programs must set expectations accordingly in a crowded conference that figures to include Texas and Oklahoma for one more year despite adding Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF in the offseason. A non-conference game against Utah should provide the Bears with a litmus test early in the season. The roster as currently constructed feels like a team with the ceiling of eight or nine wins, rather than one with conference title hopes.