Expert roundtable predicts TCU, Georgia national championship game

Photo courtesy of the College Football Playoff

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TCU hopes to write its final act of a Hollywood script in the College Football Playoff finale against reigning champion, Georgia, on Monday night in Los Angeles. The Horned Frogs were the Cinderella story of college footballl in 2022, starting 12-0 and then knocking off Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl just over a week ago. Sonny Dykes, Max Duggan, and Co. need another Herculean effort to beat a Bulldogs team that enters the weekend favored by 12.5. 

How can TCU pull the upset? What is the biggest concern for the underdog Horned Frogs? Does anybody have the guts to pick TCU? I asked those questions to experts across multiple local and national outlets. Here are their answers. 

HOW CAN TCU PULL OFF THE UPSET OVER GEORGIA? 

A: TCU executed the perfect upset script against Michigan. They got ahead early, they turned two golden opportunities at touchdowns into nothing with a mix of stops, Michigan's incompetence and trick plays gone wrong. They had two defensive scores too. Yes they played well, but you can't ignore the things that came together to make it happen. The Hypnotoad is powerful, can its power be harnassed again to this effect? (Richard Johnson, Sports Illustrated

A: Start fast and play clean. They did the former against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl, but not the latter. The Horned Frogs can’t afford turnovers or other critical mistakes. And having a healthy-enough-to-be-effective Kendre Miller is critical to TCU’s chances here. If those things come together, the Horned Frogs have a shot. (Sam Khan, The Athletic

A: If they can block Georgia as well as Michigan -- not an easy task -- Ohio State showed there will be opportunities in the passing game. The Fiesta Bowl blueprint was the perfect scenario for another David vs. Goliath upset: Take advantage of some offensive misces, make big plays with Quentin Johnston. (Dave Wilson, ESPN

A: There’s no doubt that TCU will need a near-perfect performance to upset Georgia on Monday, but the Frogs showed against Michigan that they can overcome mistakes and come away victorious. Max Duggan will need to play much better than he did against the Wolverines for the Frogs to win, and if Kendre Miller can’t go the pressure on Duggan will increase significantly. Ultimately the Frogs can win if Duggan puts on a show, and the defense does enough to slow down Stetson Bennett. If TCU can force a few turnovers and string together scoring drives, they’ll have a chance. (Jamie Plunkett, FrogsToday.com

A: With Kendre Miller likely out, TCU must find ways to incorporate tempo in their offense, quick passing routes, and creative ways to get the ball to players like Taye Barber and Quentin Johnson. The Horned Frogs also need career performances out of their safeties to avoid home run plays by the Georgia offense, especially given that TCU’s going to need to hold off Georgia’s roster depth late in the game. (J.D. Moore, RedditCFB.com

WHAT IS THE BIGGEST ADVANTAGE FOR GEROGIA IN THE GAME? 

A: Georgia’s biggest advantage is overall roster composition, and therefore, their durability when it comes to in-game attrition. Their roster is deeper from top to bottom compared to TCU’s two-deep, which means the Bulldogs will have high-talent and championship-experienced guys ready to go at all times. (Moore) 

A: I hope it doesn’t sound too redundant, but Georgia’s defensive front is a unique combination of size and speed that TCU simply has not seen this season. While Michigan’s front resembled that of Texas or Kansas State, Georgia’s is closer to that of an NFL team. A key matchup to watch is TCU left guard Steve Avila against Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. If Avila can hold his own, with the help of a double team or two, that could go a long way to TCU’s offensive success. (Plunkett) 

A: The defensive line. Jalen Carter presents a big problem for a front that had its hands full all day wirh Texas. If the Dawgs can swallow up the run game and get pressure on Max Duggan, he's been slightly off the mark since the Big 12 championship game and could struggle if TCU has to play from behind. (Wilson) 

A: Its *winning* championship experience. For the second year in a row, michigan failed on this stage. Last year it was against a generational defense, this year it was against a Frogs defense they took too long to figure out and overthought things way too much in the first half. Georgia's been here and done that and won a ring at this level. There's no substitute for good experience and UGA has it. Yes, their physical prowess is impressive but it's unclear how their offense will look depending on the health of TE Darnell Washington. (Johnson) 

A: The overall talent level. Georgia has 68 combined former four- and five-star recruits on its roster, TCU has 17. That’ll be most evident at the line of scrimmage, as the Bulldogs have the best defensive front TCU will have seen all season. (Khan) 

SCORE PREDICTION? 

A: TCU 28, Georgia 27. Why not? The Horned Frogs have found a way all year long. The fact that they never trailed Michigan despite not even playing their best game (three turnovers) is encouraging. At a minimum, I expect TCU to at least go into the final stanza still having a fighting chance. (Khan) 

A: Georgia 41, TCU 30. (Johnson) 

A: Georgia, 42-34. (Wilson) 

A: Everything points to a Georgia win, but the Frogs have shown time and time again that they can compete with whoever takes the field across from them. It’ll be a game decided in the final moments. Georgia 35, TCU 31. (Plunkett) 

A: Every time this season we’ve thought TCU was going to be “out-rostered” or “out-experienced” or just plain “out-of-luck,” this team of destiny just finds a way to win. Logically, there’s no reason to pick the Horned Frogs but given that almost nothing else has stopped them yet, I’ll go TCU 31, Georgia 28 in an all-time classic. (Moore) 

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