GLENDALE, Ariz. – Hollywood executives would laugh an aspiring screenwriter out of a room after reading a script about TCU in 2022. The Horned Frogs added another outlandish chapter in their story by beating the favored Michigan Wolverines, 51-45, on Saturday night in the Fiesta Bowl. 

The odds were stacked against the purple-hearted Horned Frogs ahead of the semifinal matchup against blue blood Michigan. The Wolverines were eight-point favorites by kickoff thanks to an undefeated record, a Big 10 championship, and a pedigree that includes the most wins in college football history and a previous trip to the CFP last year. 

TCU was 5-7 in 2021 as long-time head coach Gary Patterson was replaced by Sonny Dykes – a guy fired at Cal and most recently at SMU, where his teams built a rep of fading late in the season. The Horned Frogs hadn’t played after Christmas since 2017 and entered the year a combined 16-18 over the last three seasons. 

“We heard all week that they were going to out-physical us and that gave us motivation,” TCU linebacker Dee Winter said. “We showcased that tonight.” 

Even the off-field narratives favored the Big 10 team. Michigan’s enrollment is over 44,000. TCU’s is closer to 10,000. The athletic budget for the Wolverines is almost double that of TCU. The Horned Frogs sported the 32nd-most talented team in the nation, according to the 247 Team Composite with 17 combined five- and four-star talent. Michigan checked in at 13 with 44 players who entered college as a four- or five-star recruit. 

But none of it mattered. Helmets don’t win football games. Neither do gambling lines or program history. Plays win football games, and the Horned Frogs made plenty. 

“This is about credibility,” Dykes said. “When you’re a small, private school, you have to fight for it. Michigan has 750,000 alumni, and we’re at 75,000 or something, and that’s just the way it is. But that is what makes TCU special. We roll up our sleeves and go to work.” 

TCU returned two Michigan interceptions for touchdowns. Max Duggan accounted for four total touchdowns despite an off-night passing. Backup running back Emari Demercado ran the ball 17 times for 150 yards and a score. Future first-round draft pick Quentin Johnston caught six passes for 163 yards and a pivotal fourth-quarter score. Defensive lineman Dylan Horton registered four touchdowns. The list goes on. 

TCU never trailed. The Horned Frogs made a fourth-down stop on the first drive of the game. The defense made a statement the second time Michigan had the ball when Bud Clark took an interception 41 yards for the game’s first score. Winters would repeat that trick late in the third quarter to make the defense accountable for 14 of the points in a six-point game. 

The defense continued to make big plays in the first half. Michigan reached the red zone three times in the first half and only came away with three points in those possessions. That allowed the Horned Frogs to take a 21-6 lead into halftime. 

Former starting quarterback Chandler Morris described Duggan as a cockroach who can’t be killed earlier in the week. That proved true for the entire TCU football team. Michigan rallied multiple times, cutting the TCU lead to 21-16 in the third quarter and to 41-38 early in the fourth. Each time, the Horned Frogs responded. It proved to be one of the classic games in College Football Playoff history. Even the opposition couldn’t deny the emotions provided by the back-and-forth affair. 

“The winner was football,” Michigan John Harbaugh said after the game. “I was proud of our guys, too. I could have easily been standing in the locker room after the game congratulating our guys for the win. It was a great effort by both teams.”  

The doubting won’t stop no matter which team TCU faces in the national title tilt. The Horned Frogs will undoubtedly be at least seven-point underdogs to Georgia and Ohio State. Both started the season ranked in the top 5 of every preseason poll. Both were predicted to reach the Final Four. TCU was predicted to finish seventh in the Big 12. 

“We’re going to play again in 10 days, and we’re going to hear the same crap,” Dykes said about the distrust in TCU’s ability to hang with the usual powers of college football. “We have to do what we did this week. We’ll need to show up and answer those questions.”