ISO Spotlight: How good is Rice WBB?

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Rice is back.

The Owls are 7-0 right now, making them the only Division I women's basketball program in Texas without a loss. And this isn't one of those "we padded our schedule with NAIA opponents" undefeated starts. Rice has two wins over major conference opponents, beating Texas A&M and TCU. The team made a trip out west to take on a couple of WCC teams and beat both by double digits. This Rice team's for real. The post-Tina Langley rebuild's already over and Rice is on its way back to the top of Conference USA.

Okay. Maybe I'm getting a little ahead of myself. Let's slow down and figure out just how good these Rice Owls are.

Some background on Rice

Before we talk about Rice this year, let's talk about the Rice of years past.

Under head coach Tina Langley and with players like center Nancy Mulkey and guard Erica Ogwumike, Rice became a power in Conference USA. After going 9-22 in Langley's first season, the Owls won 20-plus games in her next five seasons. That success led to a job at Washington for Langley and seemingly to end of the Rice dynasty: Mulkey followed her to Washington, while key contributors Sydne Wiggins and Jasmine Smith left for SMU.

Last year's Rice team was almost completely different than the year prior, and it showed in the win/loss record. With Lindsay Edmonds, who previously had been an assistant coach at NC State, taking over, the Owls went 14-13, and were 8-9 in conference play.

But there were encouraging signs. The team won nine of its final 15 games last season, and Ashlee Austin emerged as a key player, scoring 16.4 points per game. The then-junior had barely seen the floor in her first two seasons with Rice, but she ended up being Second Team All-Conference.

So, there were definitely some good signs for this team. But this season, the team's gone above even those expectations. They're the only undefeated Division I team left in Texas, and one of the only undefeated teams in the country to not come from a major conference.

Rice's undefeated season

So, let's dig into some numbers and see what this Rice squad's all about.

First, the schedule they've faced. Her Hoop Stats has the team's opponent win percentage at 46.3 percent, which ranks 226th out of 361 Division I teams. But—potentially a big "but" here—that number only includes games against Division I teams. It filters out games against non-DI opponents. Lots of teams have played non-DI teams; Rice hasn't. So right there, I think we can probably say that the schedule has been slightly tougher than the numbers say.

As for what Rice has done on the floor, offense has been the team's calling card so far. Per CBB Analytics, the Owls have an offensive rating of 107.8 this season, which ranks in the 90th percentile nationally. The team is shooting 46.3 percent from the floor, and one of their best features has been an ability to draw fouls, with a free throw attempt rate that ranks as one of the best in the country.

Rice's shot profile itself has been interesting. The team is a little more reliant on mid-range shots than other teams, with 19.4 percent of their field goal attempts coming from there, while the Division I average is 16.4 percent. They've also been extremely efficient on those shots, making 50.7 percent of them. DI average? 31.8 percent.

That actually brings me to my first concern about this team: the shot profile is worrisome. The Owls won't make half of their mid-range shots this season, so you'd like to see a little increase in three-point attempts. 31.5 percent of their attempts have come from three, which ranks in the 43rd percentile. Rice wasn't taking a ton of threes under Langley either, but having the paint presence of the 6-foot-9 Mulkey made up for that. You don't have that kind of size now.

Anyway, that's a concern, but it's also nitpicking a little bit to try to poke a hole in this team's resume. Because while it's true they don't have a player as tall as Mulkey to warp things, they do have Ashlee Austin, who despite being just 6-foot is shooting 86.7 percent at the rim this season. 

Austin's a really strong finisher, and it's not like she's just getting easy looks in the paint. On the play above, she's doubled inside by TCU, but she's able to squeeze in between the two defenders for the bucket.

And Austin also adds some range. She's second on the team in three-point attempts so far at 4.0 per game, though she's shooting just 28.6 percent on those. That's a number that should go up, as she was at 34.8 percent last year.

Meanwhile, the Owls have two other players averaging in double figures this season, with Malia Fisher at 12.6 points per game and Destiny Jackson at 11.4, while Katelyn Crosthwait is right behind at 9.7. 

Crosthwait is fascinating in that she's basically been the team's perimeter offense. While Austin's taking threes, she's also taking 27.3 percent of her shots at the rim and another 14.5% in the rest of the paint. Crosthwait has taken 68.9 percent of her attempts this year from beyond the arc.

Crosthwait does a good job moving off the ball, positioning herself to get good looks from deep. She's shooting 39.1 percent from deep this season.

Meanwhile, Destiny Jackson, a 5-foot-9 guard from Mansfield Timberview who, like Austin, spent her first two seasons playing sparingly off the bench, has provided Rice with a great driving presence. Despite her size, Jackson is taking over half of her shots at the rim, and basically the other half in the paint. In fact, she's only taken a total of two mid-range shots and zero threes.

Jackson's got great ball-handling skills, allowing her to go ISO and get to the paint. (She's also adding 3.0 assists per game.) Non-shooting ball handlers are always a complex kind of player to figure out. You lose something in spacing with them, so you need that player to make positive plays in every other realm. Jackson's doing that; she makes up for the lack of shooting by being able to drive and kick.

Can Rice Keep It Up?

Here, of course, is the big question. Can the Owls win Conference USA? The preseason poll from the conference had them picked fourth. Dave Campbell'had them sixth, behind a UNT team that's been a disaster.

So far, Rice looks like a team that should be competitive, but it's too early to call them the Conference USA favorites. The Owls are currently third in the conference in net rating per CBB Analytics, sitting at +18.8. Middle Tennessee is first at +30.1.

The Blue Raiders have been the only team better than Rice offensively, with a 112.5 offensive rating to Rice's 107.8, but the bigger difference has been defense. Rice is just fifth in the conference in defensive rating this season, though you can attribute some of that to having played some good offensive teams, like SFA.

Right now, I'd characterize Rice as the second-best team in the conference. And hey, there's no shame in being behind a really talented MTSU squad. Led by Savannah Wheeler's scoring, the Blue Raiders have a win over Louisville, and their losses were by one point to Mercer and five points to Texas Tech.

But anything can happen when it comes to conference tournaments, and Rice is also giving itself a great non-conference resume, in case that ends up mattering when March gets here.

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