It's the first round of the 2022 Texas high school football playoffs, with 400+ games scattered across the state. There are favorites...but who could spring the upset?

Using DCTF's computer projections, Ishmael Johnson and Greg Tepper identify four teams that could pull the upset in the first round.

Allen (7-3) vs. Lewisville (9-1)
Allen favored by 10

Allen losing in the bi-district round, that’s almost unheard of.

But this year’s Allen’s team has been hampered by not only slow starts, but now injury. In particular, injury to star quarterback Mike Hawkins who was the linchpin of Lee Wiginton’s offense. Lewisville, on the other hand, is having one of its best seasons in recent memory sitting at 9-1 with only a competitive loss to Highland Park as their lone blemish.

Lewisville’s star defensive tackle Rendell Carter and linebacker Mason Johnson have been all over the field this season causing havoc in opposing backfields. The key here will be if the Farmers’ offense can generate enough against Allen’s stingy front seven. — Johnson

Hemphill (9-1) vs. Waskom (5-4)
Hemphill favored by 7

From a pure record perspective, this shoud be a walkover for Hemphill — the Hornets are 9-1, and their lone loss is to No. 2 Newton in district play. Meanwhile, Waskom's a mere 5-4, and lost two of their final three games of the year. Easy pickin's for the Hornets, right?

Not so fast. Hemphill's strength of schedule is pretty suspect — their opponents are just 39-61 on the year — while Waskom is a bit more battle-tested. Furthermore, Hemphill has struggled to contain teams with speed (see: Newton), and Waskom's got it in spades with Diego Smith and Caden Edwards.

The other factor here: history. Hemphill has not won a playoff game since 2002, losing their last nine postseason contests. That's a hard streak to shake. Hemphill's the better team here, but Waskom — and history – could spring the upset. — Tepper

Galveston Ball (10-0) vs Magnolia West (7-3)
Ball favored by 7

The top scoring defense in the state is Galveston Ball, who’s given up just 14 points all season. The Tornadoes’ defensive credibility is tested and proven throughout the course of the season thanks to the likes of linebacker Stefanos Pothos and sophomore defensive back Jonah Williams but what happens when it gets to the post-season and all of a sudden, the defense maybe has a crack or two?

Magnolia West has arguably played a much tougher schedule than Ball and has an offense that’s pushed the likes of Fulshear, Angleton and Richmond Foster this season. The Mustangs have ran for nearly 2,000 yards this season thanks to the deep stable of running backs led by junior Terry Daniels. It’s tough to go from dominating a schedule to all of a sudden, playing teams up to your caliber and Ball will have to make that adjustment this week. — Johnson