Week 8 offered up some cold, hard truth for the FBS programs in the state of Texas – most of them are average at best. TCU is the only undefeated program in the state. Of the 12 FBS teams in Texas, only the Horned Frogs and UTSA possess fewer than three losses. Texas and Texas A&M continue to struggle, which hurts the perception of the quality of college football played in Texas. For a state that takes pride in its football talent, that is a hard pill to swallow. The 411 looks at the state of football in Texas with four truths, one prediction, and one question as we turn the page towards Week 9 of the college football season. 

FOUR TRUTHS 

A whole bunch of average: I spent the summer of 2020 in Maine. Sports were cancelled and a friend of mine had a family cottage that needed tending. So, I packed up my bags and my dog, Taco, and we took off for the Northeast. I spent three months there and met a few friends on the golf course over time. A conversation from one round sticks out in my head. My friend said, “for how much you guys care about football, the state of Texas doesn’t win all that much.” 

The truth hurt. I’m 37 years old and the only national championship I’ve seen claimed by an in-state team was the Texas Longhorns back when I was in college. We all know what’s happened to the program since Colt McCoy graduated. Texas A&M has rarely even competed for conference championships for most of my adult life. Over the last decade, the best year inside the state might be 2014 when TCU and Baylor were left out of the College Football Playoff. 

Texas is normally grouped with California and Florida as the best football states. The state of Florida has combined for nine national championships since 1985 with Florida, Florida State, and Miami claiming at least one title. The Lone Star State checks in close to California, where one school – USC – has both of the state’s national championships since 1985. But why? How do arguably the two most talent-rich football states in the country struggle to win national championships? Too many FBS teams. 

There are seven FBS programs in Florida, and only three of those play Power Five football. California also has seven FBS programs, but four play at the P5 level. Texas possesses 12 FBS programs with five at the P5. That number grows to 13 next year when Sam Houston joins Conference USA. Add in the fact that the rest of the country recruits the Lone Star State, and it is easy to see why we struggle to produce great football teams. TCU is the only undefeated team in the state. In fact, each of the four FBS programs in Texas have at least three losses. Ten of the 12 FBS teams in Texas hold at least three losses. Only UTSA and TCU are in conference title hunts. 

The state’s producing national title teams – Alabama, Ohio, South Carolina, Louisiana, and Georgia – don’t have as many in-state schools to battle or as much geography to defend. Until the in-state schools can keep the best talent home, the state of Texas will continue to be an afterthought in the college football landscape. 

Texas A&M should shift focus to 2023: The perception inside of Texas starts with Texas and Texas A&M. Both programs are struggling. The Aggies continue to play lackluster offense. Jimbo Fisher’s offense is averaging 18.2 points per game in 2022 against FBS opponents. The Aggies haven’t scored more than 24 points against an FBS program this season. They’ve played three quarterbacks without much success, including true freshman Conner Weigman late in the loss in Week 8 to South Carolina. At 3-4, Texas A&M is under .500 and needs to start playing for next season. That means Fisher should give Weigman the reigns to find out if his young signal caller is the answer or if the Aggies need to dip back into the transfer portal. 

Talent isn’t an issue. The Aggies are loaded defensively, and the young players at the skill positions on offense look good. Evan Stewart is a true no. 1 receiver. Donovan Green will become an all-conference tight end. The recruiting classes will continue to be stacked. But can Texas A&M figure out the quarterback position? Or is this more systematic and not about the quarterback, such as TCU with Max Duggan? Fisher must answer these questions before the start of 2023 or 8-4 is the ceiling in College Station for the foreseeable future. 

Another bad trip for the Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian fell to 1-6 on the road in his two seasons at Texas. The only true road win for the Longhorns in that time was against TCU in 2021. That TCU team finished the year below .500 and fired head coach Gary Patterson by the end of the year. The unfortunate part for the Texas faithful is that it followed a familiar script. The loss to Oklahoma State was the sixth defeat for Texas after leading at halftime in 20 games under Sarkisian. Texas only lost four such games in 50 attempts with Tom Herman in charge. Texas lost a double-digit lead in the road loss to Texas Tech earlier in the season, as well. 

Jeff Traylor does it again: While the Power Five programs in Texas struggle to stay in conference contention, Traylor and his Roadrunners continue to be the class of Conference USA. He’s now 25-9 as a head coach following a four-point win over North Texas in Week 8. UTSA has played 22 one-possession games during that stretch and have won 16 of those games. He’s 16-3 in conference play and 15-2 at home. If the Texas and/or Texas A&M jobs open up over the next few seasons, I know who the first call should be. 

ONE QUESTION 

Should TCU be in the College Football Playoff conversation? 

The Horned Frogs are 7-0 in year one under Sonny Dykes with home wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State. TCU is the class of the Big 12, and of the state of Texas just over halfway through the season. Each of the five teams remaining on the schedule – West Virginia, Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State – possess at least three losses. TCU should be favored in every game from here to the end of the regular season. A 12-0 record puts the Horned Frogs in position to claim one of the four College Football Playoff spots, especially with a one-loss PAC-12 champion guaranteed. One spot is reserved for the SEC champ. Two more for Ohio State and Clemson if those teams run the table. TCU can’t afford to lose a single game, but a perfect record gets the Frogs there, and right now, I’m not sure who I’d pick to knock them off in the regular season. 

ONE PREDICTION 

Rice reaches a bowl game 

The Owls are 4-3 and two wins away from qualifying for a bowl bid for the first time since 2014. They haven’t won more than four games since 2015. Rice’s four wins matches the 2021-win total and the most for head coach Mike Bloomgren in his fifth season in charge. To reach a bowl the Owls need to win the next two games. They play Charlotte in Week 9 and UTEP in Week 10. Those are winnable games. A slip up puts Rice in a tough spot because the Owls close with games against Western Kentucky, UTSA, and North Texas – arguably the three best teams in the conference.