The Baylor Bears went 12-2 in Dave Aranda’s second year as head coach. The season included a Big 12 championship and Sugar Bowl win. The Bears finished the season on a five-game winning streak following an upset loss at TCU on Nov. 6. 

2020 record: 12-2 (+10 wins from 2020)

Texas Power Poll Ranking: 1 of 12

THE GOOD

Most of Baylor’s 2021 season should be listed under the good category. Baylor won a conference championship by avenging a mid-season loss at Oklahoma State. The Bears lost 24-14 to Oklahoma State on Oct. 2. Baylor held off the Cowboys in the Big 12 title game when former walk-on safety Jairon McVea made a touchdown-saving tackle inches from the goal line to end Oklahoma State’s comeback attempt. The win, and the play, was a perfect summary of Aranda’s bunch in 2021 – scrappy, gritty, never-say-die. 

The good started in the offseason when Aranda admitted failure on the offensive side of the ball in 2020 and brought in offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and offensive line coach Eric Matteos from BYU. The duo immediately went to work fixing an offense that averaged 23.3 points per game in a two-win 2020 season. Baylor averaged 2.7 yards a carry last year and gave up 31 sacks in 10 games. The Bears would average 31.63 points per game in 2021 and lower that sacks allowed number to 18 in 14 contests. 

The first, and best move, the new staff made was putting Abram Smith back at running back after a stint at linebacker. Smith, a powerful running back from Abilene High School, looked like he was made for the wide zone rushing attack implemented by Grimes. Smith broke the Baylor record for rushing yards in a season this year with 1,601. As a team, Baylor doubled its yards per carry average in 2021 from 2.7 last year to 5.4 this season. Baylor ran the ball for 3,070 yards and 29 touchdowns. 

The defense was also spectacular. Safety Jalen Pitre, the only remaining member of the 2017 recruiting class, was named the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. He earned the Dave Campbell’s Texas Football Defensive Player of the Year Award, as well, making him the best defender on the FBS level in the state of Texas. Pitre finished the season with 75 tackles, 3.5 sacks. 18.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, three forced fumbles, and three fumble recoveries. 

The linebacker duo of Terrell Bernard and Dillon Doyle was superb. Bernard, who was the MVP of the Sugar Bowl with 17 tackles and a pair of sacks, led the team with 103 tackles. He also added 7.5 sacks. Doyle registered 90 tackles, nine tackles for loss, an interception, and a forced fumble. Safety J.T. Woods was tied for the most interceptions in the nation with six. Siaka Ika, a nose tackle transfer from LSU, was the most disruptive force in the middle of any defense in the state of Texas. 

Baylor allowed 29.22 points in 2020. The unit lowered that to 18.29 in 2021. 

THE BAD

There wasn’t a ton of bad for Baylor in 2021. The program only suffered two losses, and one of those was avenged in the Big 12 title game. If we want to nit-pick, the Bears’ passing game wasn’t always consistent in 2021, especially when Gerry Bohanon went down with an injury late in the season. Bohanon averaged 183.33 yards per game through the air, though he did add nine rushing touchdowns. He was a solid game-manager for Baylor, completing nearly 63 percent of his passes and throwing 18 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. Bohanon returned for the bowl game, but he looked rusty and out of sorts. He completed seven of his 17 passes for 40 yards. 

Blake Shapen, who missed the bowl game with an injury of his own, played well in reserve duty when Bohanon was lost to injury. Shapen completed 72 percent of his passes and threw five touchdowns to zero interceptions. He led the Bears to wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to clinch a Big 12 title, and he positioned himself to compete with Bohanon for the starting quarterback spot in 2022. 

The lack of consistency in the passing game kept the receiving numbers low for a 12-win team. Tyquan Thornton led the team with 62 receptions for 948 yards and 10 touchdowns, which is excellent. The second leading receiver was RJ Sneed with 46 catches. Tight end Ben Sims caught 31 passes, the third-most on the team, for 361 yards and six touchdowns. 

THE UGLY

The only ugly to be found in Baylor’s 2021 season was the upset loss at TCU. Baylor lost that game to its rival 30-28 when TCU quarterback Chandler Morris dazzled in his first career start. Morris threw for 461 yards and ran for 70 more, accounting for three touchdowns. The Bears defense, which is usually the strength of the team, didn’t have an answer for the young gunslinger. Bohanon threw two interceptions in the loss. 

TEAM GRADES 

Quarterback: B-

Running back: A

Wide receiver/tight end: B

Offensive line: A

Defensive line: B+

Linebacker: A+

Cornerback: B+

Safety: A

BIGGEST OFFSEASON QUESTION

Who starts at quarterback in 2022? 

Bohanon or Shapen? That’s the major offseason question for the Baylor Bears. Bohanon is clearly a team leader, and he started the 2021 season by not throwing an interception until the BYU game. But the offense clearly lacked big-play ability unless Thornton or Sneed got loose after the catch. Baylor is replacing a good amount of talent at offensive line, running back, and at receiver/tight end. The Bears need a quarterback to become the face of the offense. My money is on Shapen. He was excellent when given the chance to start, and his upside is higher than Bohanon in the passing game. 

The other main question for the Bears is how does Aranda and company replace leaders such as Pitre and Bernard? 

WAY TOO EARLY 2022 OUTLOOK

It is hard to imagine Baylor competing for another Big 12 championship in 2022 due to the number of losses expected with some of the team’s best players running out of eligibility. Who steps up as the leaders of the defense without Bernard and Pitre? Who steps in to replace the production of Smith on offense? Does the quarterback position take a step forward? That said, the Big 12 is wide open. Oklahoma State is facing similar challenges in terms of replacing long-time leaders on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma is undergoing a complete overhaul with its roster and coaching staff. Texas is a mystery. TCU and Texas Tech hired new coaches. No one outside of the Baylor locker room thought the Bears would claim a Big 12 championship and a Sugar Bowl win during a 12-win season in 2021, so maybe outside expectations don’t mean anything in Waco. That’s the sign of a program going in the right direction.