Regional Outlook

A year ago the regional balance in the Houston area was turned upside down as Katy moved into the Division II bracket and proceeded to dominate en route to a state title, will history repeat itself or will the always competitive middle of the pack Katy ISD race change the dynamics once again in Region III?

On paper 17-6A isn’t as strong as their Cy-Fair ISD-heavy counterpart 16-6A, but the race expects to be plenty competitive as a young Cy-Fair squad looks to continue their reign of dominance, while Jersey Village, Houston Memorial, Cy Creek and Houston Stratford all expect to be improved and should challenge not only for playoff contention, but if things break right, potentially a district title. The bad news is there’s five good teams in this district, which means one will be disappointed come playoff time.

Houston ISD for the first time in quite a while had a new champion as Heights took down Lamar for the district crown and the Bulldogs even secured a playoff win along the way. A veteran Lamar squad expects to get back to the top of the district standings, while Heights doesn’t figure to be too far behind. Bellaire will be young in 2021, but the Cardinals should have enough for third, while the race for the final playoff spot should be tight between Westside, Chavez and Westbury.

Katy ISD’s playoff race will again shape the entire destiny of the Region III race as defending Division II state champion Katy could swing into Division I depending on who secures the final playoff spot in 19-6A. Katy, who lost the district title to Tompkins a year ago brings back a loaded roster and expects to be the clear favorite, while Tompkins brings back enough firepower to be a solid bet for second place. Katy Taylor, who has six playoff wins the past two seasons should fall back to the pack some, but the Mustangs should still be in position for the third spot. Where things get intriguing is for the fourth spot, where Seven Lakes, Cinco Ranch, Mayde Creek and Morton Ranch all have a case to be made. Seven Lakes earned the spot a year ago, which eventually pushed Katy into Division II, but this may be the year Cinco Ranch returns to the playoffs as the Cougars return fourteen starters from a team that improved greatly towards the end of the season losing close games to Seven Lakes and Morton Ranch down the stretch. It’s anyone’s guess who secures that last playoff spot, but the early prediction is Katy goes back to Division I in 2021.

Fort Bend ISD expects to have a team in Ridge Point who isn’t talked about much among the contenders in Division I Region III, but the Panthers bring back enough firepower to put them in the discussion and they are the clear favorites to win 20-6A. The race after that is anyone’s guess with Travis, Elkins, a vastly improved Bush squad and the lone non-FBISD school George Ranch all with a case for playoff consideration. Don’t count out Dulles or long-struggling Clements out either as both expect to be much improved as well.

North Shore has dominated the Houston area the last three years and despite a decorated senior class moving on, the Mustangs should have enough, especially on defense to hold off a strong Atascocita squad that could be primed to take the next step in 2021. C.E. King is solidly positioned for the third spot, but the real intrigue is for fourth place where a three-team race between Beaumont West Brook, Humble Summer Creek and Humble Kingwood is shaping up to be quite intriguing.

Pasadena Dobie expects to once again be in charge of 22-6A, but there’s plenty of questions after that as Channelview on the strength of fourteen returning starters looks to be the best contenders to take down the Longhorns. Deer Park fresh off a return to the playoffs a year will contend as well, but the real battle will be for that fourth spot where Pasadena Memorial and South Houston both expect to be much improved. Memorial took down South Houston a year ago to earn fourth place, but SHHS on the strength of seventeen returning starters will be the early nod this year over a Memorial squad that has to replace eight starters on defense.

Shadow Creek’s move to 6A was as expected difficult as the Sharks weren’t able to get their third straight district title, but they did make progress late in the year advancing to the regional semifinals before being eliminated by Katy. The Sharks get the slight nod over Pearland ISD rivals Pearland High and Dawson, but 23-6A on paper looks to be a three-team race. Strake Jesuit looks to be just strong enough to hold off the top two teams in Alief ISD in Taylor and Hastings for the fourth and final playoff spot.

Dickinson and Clear Springs have dominated in 24-6A the past few years and there’s no reason to think those two won’t be at the top of the standings again in 2021, but fast rising Clear Falls, fresh off a run to the regional finals a year ago is also a major contender on the strength of ten starters back on defense. The Knights rise absolutely makes this a three-team race at the top. Clear Creek and Clear Brook will be an absolute war for the final playoff spot, Clear Creek rolled a year ago in that meeting, but the gap is definitely narrowed going into 2021.

District Predictions

District 17-6A

1. Cy-Fair
2. Jersey Village
3. Houston Memorial
4. Cy Creek
5. Houston Stratford
6. Cy Ridge
7. Houston Spring Woods
8. Houston Northbrook

District 18-6A

1. Houston Lamar
2. Houston Heights
3. Houston Bellaire
4. Houston Westside
5. Houston Westbury
6. Houston Chavez
7. Houston Sam Houston

District 19-6A

1. Katy
2. Katy Tompkins
3. Katy Taylor
4. Katy Cinco Ranch
5. Katy Seven Lakes
6. Katy Mayde Creek
7. Katy Morton Ranch

District 20-6A

1. Fort Bend Ridge Point
2. Fort Bend Travis
3. Richmond George Ranch
4. Fort Bend Bush
5. Fort Bend Elkins
6. Fort Bend Dulles
7. Fort Bend Clements
8. Fort Bend Austin

District 21-6A

1. Galena Park North Shore
2. Humble Atascocita
3. Houston King
4. Beaumont West Brook
5. Humble Summer Creek
6. Humble Kingwood
7. Humble

District 22-6A

1. Pasadena Dobie
2. Channelview
3. Deer Park
4. South Houston
5. Pasadena Memorial
6. Pasadena Rayburn
7. Pasadena

District 23-6A

1. Alvin Shadow Creek
2. Pearland
3. Pearland Dawson
4. Houston Strake Jesuit
5. Alief Taylor
6. Alief Hastings
7. Alief Elsik
8. Alvin

District 24-6A

1. Dickinson
2. Clear Falls
3. Clear Springs
4. Clear Creek
5. Clear Brook
6. Clear Lake
7. Clute Brazoswood

Predicted Playoff Matchups

DIVISION I

W17 Cy-Fair vs. R18 Houston Westside

W19 Katy vs. R20 Fort Bend Travis

W21 Galena Park North Shore vs. R22 Deer Park

W23 Pearland vs. R24 Clear Springs

W18 Houston Bellaire vs. R17 Jersey Village

W20 Fort Bend Ridge Point vs. R19 Katy Tompkins

W22 Pasadena Dobie vs. R21 Humble Atascocita

W24 Dickinson vs. R23 Pearland Dawson

DIVISION II

W17 Houston Memorial vs. R18 Houston Heights

W19 Katy Taylor vs. R20 Fort Bend Bush

W21 Houston King vs. R22 South Houston

W23 Alvin Shadow Creek vs. R24 Clear Creek

W18 Houston Lamar vs. R17 Cy Creek

W20 Richmond George Ranch vs. R19 Katy Cinco Ranch

W22 Channelview vs. R21 Beaumont West Brook

W24 Clear Falls vs. R23 Houston Strake Jesuit

Regional Winners

Division I – Katy over Humble Atascocita

Division II – Clear Falls over Alvin Shadow Creek