With National Signing Day in the rearview mirror, we are evaluating the state of each Texas FBS program. Today, we start with the Texas State Bobcats, one of the few teams in America to make it through a full 12-game season in 2020.

Texas State Bobcats

• 2020 Record: 2-10, 2-6 Sun Belt
• Head Coach: Jake Spavital (5-19 in three seasons)
• Returning Production Rank (O/D): 29 / 56
• Key Returners: QB Brady McBride (1,925 yards, 17 TDs, 7 INTs), WR Marcell Barbee (40 catches, 584 yards, 10 TDs), DB Jarron Morris (69 tackles, 11 PBUs, 4 INTs)
• Key Losses: WR Jeremiah Haydel, LB Hal Vinson, WR Jah’marae Sheread
• Key Additions: QB Ty Evans (NC State), OL Liam Dobson (Rhode Island), DL Nick McCann (Texas Tech)
• Final 2020 Texas Power Poll Ranking: 12
• Way-Too-Early 2021 Ranking: 10

What went wrong: Early promise was wasted

Through nonconference play, we were waiting to crown Texas State one of the breakout teams of the year. The Bobcats took SMU and Boston College to the wire, crushed ULM and played a breakout UTSA to double-overtime. With Sun Belt play starting, our expectations were high that the Bobcats could make some noise. 

However, a 20-point loss to Troy quickly threw some cold water on expectations. A double-digit loss to South Alabama effectively ended any chance Texas State had to play spoiler. Narrowly beating the worst Arkansas State team in a decade didn’t exactly bring much relief. 

There was something darkly humorous about the fact that the most frustrating team in the state was one of the only schools that didn’t have a single game cancelled by COVID-19. But at the end of it, Texas State finished 2-10, a disappointing end to a once promising season. 

Texas State coach Jake Spavital came to San Marcos with hopes of turning the program around and moving up through the coaching world. At 5-19, it’s obvious he hasn’t achieved that goal as yet. 

No amount of context – no matter how reasonable – can explain away the record. 

What went right: The offense isn’t a lost cause

While the record ended up what it was, the signs were encouraging. The offense jumped from No. 121 to No. 85 in a year despite quarterbacks Brady McBride and Tyler Vitt going in and out of the COVID-19 protocol. 

We heard all offseason about how good McBride looked during a redshirt season. Flashes of that player certainly showed up. The Coppell product completed 61.3 percent of his passes for 1,925 yards, 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. 

In his final three games against Georgia Southern, Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina, McBride completed 70 percent of his passes for 800 yards, eight touchdowns and no picks. If that quarterback shows up from the start, Texas State is in a much better spot. 

However, perhaps the biggest reason for the improved passing game lies on the shoulders of wide receiver Marcell Barbee. The junior finished with 40 catches for 584 yards and 10 touchdowns to earn All-Texas College honors. Especially with a gamer like McBride, Barbee’s length and extension helped keep the offense on schedule. 

The running backs are also a major reason for excitement. Calvin Hill, Brock Sturges and Jahmyl Jeter all averaged at least 4.8 yards per carry behind an inconsistent offensive line. With some improvement on that front, there’s plenty of reason to believe the numbers could skyrocket. 

None of that matters if the Bobcats finish bottom five nationally in total defense, though. 

Spavital is trying something unique

Instead of looking to the high school ranks, Spavital is rebuilding the roster on the fly through transfers. In fact, the Bobcats did not sign a single high school player in the class of 2021. 

Many of those additions have come on the offensive line. The Bobcats added three linemen through the portal, including FCS All-American Liam Dobson from Rhode Island. All will compete for starting jobs right away. 

On defense, Power Five transfers DT Nick McCann, CB Dontye Carriere-Williams and LB DeMarrquese Hayes instantly raise the talent level. Carriere-Williams joins with SMU transfer Eric Sutton and do-everything cornerback Jarron Morris to try and elevate a pass defense that allowed more than 270 yards per game. 

Adding so many upperclassmen through the transfer wire at once can be a dangerous game. In fact, you could argue the high JUCO numbers are a big part of the reason that former coach Everett Withers’ rebuilding job was so difficult. However, this could be a unique year where the transfer market might not kill you. 

The NCAA ruled that the 2020 season will not count against player eligibility because of the weirdness of the pandemic. That means that Spavital’s freshman class will be able to remain freshmen once again. The roster is still a little unbalanced, but it’s a gamble that the next recruiting class can fill those gaps. It will be fascinating to see if that works, but we won’t really know until Senior Day four years from now. 

The Sun Belt is only getting harder

At one time, the Sun Belt was in contention for the worst league in FBS football. It seemed like an ideal situation for Texas State to step in and quickly find its way to contention. No more. 

The 2020 iteration of the Sun Belt was quietly the best Group of Five league in the country, and that includes the AAC. No. 12 Coastal Carolina and No. 19 Louisiana finished the year ranked in the playoff rankings, and both were woefully underranked. Appalachian State was right on the cusp of the rankings. The top end of the conference can compete with anyone. 

Even more concerning for Texas State, the bottom of the conference is rising up. Coastal Carolina was picked last in the division before its explosion. South Alabama finished second in the West Division, ahead of longtime contender Arkansas State.

The only East Division team to finish below .500 was Troy, which posted three consecutive 10-win seasons under Neal Brown from 2016-18. By season’s end, only 0-10 ULM finished in a worse position than Texas State – and the Warhawks fired head coach Matt Viator! 

The opportunity for Spavial to quickly lead Texas State to a bowl game and look elsewhere are gone. Now, it’s going to take a sustained build. The conference is simply too good to expect otherwise.

Now what? 

For all the question marks on this team, envisioning a successful Texas State isn’t difficult. More consistent offensive line play could lead to an even stronger running game, and that could help McBride – or whoever starts at quarterback – post even more productive numbers. The defense has some work to do, but getting help up front should help turn the tide. 

Texas State has not released its full 2021 schedule as yet, but there are some reasons for optimism. Nonconference games against FIU, UIW and Eastern Michigan are all winnable. Louisiana will be a horrific divisional game with Billy Napier back, but the other three divisional foes are beatable. 

All that said, our patience with the program is starting to wear thin. Spavital was hired specifically to bring a high-flying schematic advantage to a roster that was supposed to be ready after three years of Withers rebuild. Obviously, this staff doesn’t believe that was the case. 

Spavital was a bonafide homerun hire when Texas State lured him from West Virginia to San Marcos. But now, we’re heading into year three without much to show for it. Perhaps no team in Texas needs to show proof of concept more than Texas State in 2021 – are the Bobcats up for the challenge?