The last time Baylor football beat an FBS team that finished with a regular season winning record, Louisville and Houston ranked top-six in the AP poll, Jim Grobe was the head coach and Matt Rhule’s Temple Owls were putting together an AAC championship season. 

Plenty has changed since Sept. 24, 2016, when the Bears beat Oklahoma State 35-24. It’s a new era, new system and new identity in Waco. After stripping the roster down to one win in 2017, the Bears are set to be a tough out in conference play this season. 

But still, the fact remains. Since Rhule took over the program, the nine FBS teams Rhule’s Baylor squad have beat to the team have a combined 41-63 record. With the modest exception of the Texas Bowl last season, the Bears have to post a signature victory under Rhule. 

That can all change this weekend, as the Iowa State Cyclones come to McLane Stadium. 

The Cyclones aren’t a ranked opponent after losing a heartbreaker to Iowa in Week 2. Still, they’re a program that has implicit credibility – maybe for the first time ever – under respected head coach Matt Campbell. The ‘Clones were picked No. 3 in the preseason Big 12 poll. In many ways, this is a critical matchup for both teams if they want to compete for the conference.

“Two years ago, we were a little bit on the brink,” Rhule said. “And here we are two years and three games, and ESPN is coming to town and it’s a big game. It’s a relevant game.”

That word Rhule used is critical: relevant. Baylor hasn’t been relevant since losing to TCU in 2016, a loss that sent the program into a tailspin. Rhule was perfectly comfortable working under the radar building his team from the ground up over the past two seasons. The process is never completely over, but it’s time for the rebuild to near completion. 

The talent has started to show up. Quarterback Charlie Brewer has flashed star potential. Defensive lineman James Lynch and linebacker Clay Johnston lead a growing front seven. Wide receiver Denzel Mims will play on Sundays next year. Far more importantly, the quality roster depth is there now in a way that Rhule couldn’t touch each of the past two years. 

And on the other end, Iowa State is far from invincible. The Cyclones needed three overtimes to beat Northern Iowa. They rushed for just 91 yards and mustered 17 points against Iowa. Brock Purdy had a record day last Saturday; it came against ULM. If Brewer can figure out the ISU defense, coached by elite defensive coordinator John Heacock. the Bears can win this game. 

That said, Baylor has been inconsistent on these big stages under Rhule’s watch. The Bears lost their one ESPN game against Texas, and another on ABC against Oklahoma. On a national stage in a Thursday matchup with West Virginia, the Bears dropped a 58-14 decision in one of their worst performances in years. 

Beating Vanderbilt in the Texas Bowl was a big step in the right direction, but 2019 calls for more than that. Baylor has to make a statement. This isn’t the 1-11 Bears anymore, we think. This team is something completely different. 

Perhaps the most optimistic number in Baylor’s favor comes from ESPN’s Chris Fallica. Rhule has coached 14 games as an underdog by fewer than seven points. In those games, he’s 11-3 straight up – including 3-0 at Baylor. The Bears are a slight 2.5-point underdog to the Cyclones on Saturday. 

And if Baylor can pull off the win, the schedule suddenly opens up in a big way. Matchups with Texas and Oklahoma are at home. The Bears only leave the state to face off against Oklahoma State and the Kansas schools. ESPN’s SP+ rates the Bears as the more efficient team in five of the final eight games. If Baylor can win this game, there’s a path to a top-three finish in the conference. 

When Rhule arrived at Baylor, it was easy to look at the path he forged at Temple. The Owls won two games his first season, followed by six wins and then 10 wins. Doing it at a Big 12 level is a different ask. But still, if his history is any indication, year three is when the results start showing up. With conference play starting on Saturday, the program is ready for its breakout moment. 

This is a winnable game for Baylor, especially in front of what should be a motivated home crowd at McLane Stadium. It’s a showcase game for the process, and for where Baylor wants its program to go. A win over Iowa State on Saturday proves this is a changed program. 

Baylor faces off against Iowa State at 2:30 p.m. Saturday at McLane Stadium. ESPN will broadcast the game live nationally.