Houston football will begin the Dana Holgorsen era with one of the toughest season-openers in America, as the Cougars travel up the road to face off against No. 4 Oklahoma. 

The Cougars hope to grow as a football team after struggling down the stretch in a disappointing 8-5 campaign a year ago. With new playmakers and more experience, we’re running through the key matchups that will decide this game. 

Of course, it’s week one of the year. Not every player we project to play will play where we think they will, or at all. The fact that neither Houston nor Oklahoma decided to release a depth chart makes it even more of a crapshoot. But still, we’ll make some educated guesses. 

Here’s what you need to know about this marquee Sunday matchup. 

Game Info

Time: 6:30 p.m. on Sept. 1

Place: Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla. 

Channel: ABC or WatchESPN

Line: Oklahoma by 23.5

Oklahoma Basics

For the second year in a row, Oklahoma has to replace a Heisman-winning quarterback that went No. 1 in the NFL draft. For the fourth year in a row, that job goes to a transfer. Alabama grad transfer Jalen Hurts, a Channelview product, will play his first game as a Sooner on Saturday after being part of three Alabama national title game appearances. He’ll try to lead the Sooners to their first College Football Playoff win ever. 

The offense should continue to be stacked. Oklahoma returns three skill talents who posted 1,000 all purpose yards last season: WR CeeDee Lamb (1,158 receiving yards, 11 TDs), running back Trey Sermon (947 rush yards, 12 TDs, 181 receiving yards) and Kennedy Brooks (1,056 rushing yards, 12 TDs, 57 receiving). As if that wasn’t enough, the Sooners also signed three five-star receivers in the 2019 recruiting class: Jaden Haselwood (Ellenwood, Ga.), Theo Wease (Allen) and Trejan Bridges (Hebron). 

Defensively, the Sooners are in the midst of a major transition under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Grinch comes to Norman after turning Washington State into a monster with Mike Leach. He’s used to playing defense with a high-powered offense, which bodes well for the future of the program. The present is a little rockier. Oklahoma ranked last nationally in pass defense and No. 114 overall. Only Oregon State, UConn and – yikes – Houston gave up more yards last season. That has to change. 

Oklahoma is favored to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff once again. Houston has its hands full if it wants to beat Oklahoma for the second time in four seasons.

Houston Basics

The Cougars are coming off an 8-5 season that led to head coach Major Applewhite getting the boot. Luckily, the program poached West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen to be the new face of football in the city. Holgorsen was open about wanting to be at Houston for a long time, and comes to the program after winning 61 games in eight seasons at West Virginia. 

He steps into one of the best offensive situations in college football. Quarterback D’Eriq King is a special playmaker. He posted 50 total touchdowns in just 11 games before tearing his meniscus a year ago, and should only get better as a senior. All of the key running backs and receivers are back too, along with a bulk of the offensive line. This offense ranked No. 7 nationally in 2018, and can be just as good in 2019. 

Defensively, the team is in a much dicier place. The Cougars ranked No. 126 nationally after giving up 496.5 yards per game. The only AAC team worse was UConn, which posted a historically and astronomically terrible defense. To fix it, Holgorsen brought in Arkansas State defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen, who plays an aggressive, attacking 4-man defensive front. His defenses are characterized by high sack numbers and defensive touchdowns. Houston posted 24 turnovers gained a season ago, so there’s upside there, but ranked No. 94 in team sacks. Cauthen has his work cut out trying to get that number up. 

Houston has the tools to be an elite Group of Five program in the mold of UCF or Boise State. The Cougars believe Holgorsen is the man to take them there. We won’t figure out one way or another in Week One against Oklahoma, but a good showing will help set the table for a potentially great season. 

Key Player Matchup: Houston DE Derrick Parish vs. Oklahoma LT R.J. Proctor

Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts isn’t going to make mistakes on his own. During his time at Alabama, Hurts threw 48 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. He’s too good to struggle against an AAC opponent without a little bit of help. 

Sooners offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh is as good a position coach as you’ll find in America. There’s no doubt that he’ll find five solid starters. But still, the Sooners are replacing four NFL offensive linemen. There will be some growing pains. Parish has to take advantage. Even more importantly, Parish has to set the edge against Hurts, one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the country. Any mistakes will be magnified against this offense. 

Key Player Matchup: LB Jordan Carmouche vs. C Creed Humphrey

This won’t necessarily be a one-on-one matchup all game long, but how these chess pieces move will affect each other. Carmouche is the one surefire linebacker that can be expected to fill gaps and stop the run. Humphrey is a potential first round NFL draft pick who excels at directing traffic on the offensive line. 

Stopping the run is, by far, the most important part of beating Oklahoma. The Sooners averaged an absurd 247.4 rushing yards per game a season ago on 6.6 yards per carry, with 42 touchdowns. Wisconsin and Clemson were the only Power Five teams with better rush offenses. 

Carmouche is going to be asked to tackle in space, and he’ll have to do it a lot against the insanely talented backfield of Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon. If he can make the right reads and find the right creases against an elite offensive line program, Houston’s defense has a chance. 

Most important stat: Points off turnovers

In reality, Houston could win most of the key stats and still lose the game. Oklahoma’s players are probably just better – this is a perennial playoff team we’re talking about. In the one regular season loss to Texas, the Sooners flashed a tiny Achilles heel. 

Oklahoma turned the ball over three times against the Longhorns. Texas scored a field goal off one, a touchdown off another and ended the game on the third. Despite those 10 points off turnovers, Texas still won by just a late field goal. 

Houston’s offense can at least hang with Oklahoma’s high-powered attack. D’Eriq King is that good. To have a chance to win, Houston has to give him a couple of extra chances. 

X-Factor: RB Patrick Carr

Obviously it’s D’Eriq King. He’s the only reason most people think this could be a good game. We’re not going to say D’Eriq King. 

Instead, the other member of the Cougars’ backfield will have a major spotlight. Oklahoma was horrific against the pass a season ago, but was surprisingly decent against the run. The Sooners ranked No. 59 in rush defense at 159.8 yards per game, and a very solid No. 51 at 4.1 yards per carry allowed. 

Grinch’s scheme is obviously going to center on trying to keep King in the pocket. In his stead, Carr – along with Mulbah Carr and Kyle Porter – needs to keep the linebackers honest. The more success Houston has on the ground, the more it opens the game up for King to thrive. 

Score prediction: Oklahoma 45, Houston 28

D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He’ll be one of the few from the Group of Five that will contend for a Heisman spot, if he stays healthy. Against an Oklahoma defense that was porous at best last season, he’ll have his opportunities. 

However, Houston’s defense is plenty porous as well. The last time we saw them, they were allowing 70 points to Army’s option offense. Oklahoma’s offense should feature plenty of option concepts, but with a stable of elite wide receivers to match too. There will be improvement, to be sure, but plenty of growing pains too. 

Houston scores just enough points to keep it interesting – and cover easily. However, Oklahoma comfortably pulls away to hand the Cougars their first loss of the season.