Texas won't get a first round bye in the College Football Playoff after losing the SEC Championship in overtime to Georgia. Instead, they'll host a first round game at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in two weeks.
The Longhorns are slated to fall into the 5-7 seed range. The Big Ten Championship and ACC Championship games are the last remaining to determine their fate.
If those games go as planned, undefeated Oregon will be the No.1-seed if and SMU will be the 3-seed. That would leave 11–1 Notre Dame, 11–2 Penn State and 11–2 Texas fighting for the 5-7 seeds. Because Notre Dame is not in a conference, they cannot be slotted higher than the 5-seed.
On3 has Texas slotted at 7-seed, playing 10-seed Indiana. USAToday has Texas slotted at 6-seed, playing 11-seed Alabama. SI.com has Texas topping out at the 5-seed, playing 12-seed Clemson. It's important to note all three publications have Indiana at the 10-seed and Alabama as the 11-seed. Two of the four (On3 and USA Today) have Big 12 Champion Arizona State as the 12-seed.
If the Ducks go down, I predict they'll slide into the 5-seed. This means it's safest to assume Texas is the 6-7 seed with either Big Ten Championship outcome.
If Texas is the 6-seed AND SMU loses the ACC Championship, there's a high likelihood the First Round matchup is an intrastate affair with an 11-seed SMU. If SMU takes care of business, this is most likely Texas vs Alabama for the third year in a row.
If the Committee drops Texas to the 7-seed, they are by all intents and purposes locked into a battle with Indiana.
The College Football Playoff Selection Show is Sunday, December 8 from 10:00 a.m. - 2:00 p.m.
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