The Blitz: Analytics for every Texas FCS, DII, DIII, NAIA conference

Analytical stats for Non-FBS college football teams in the Southland, United Athletic, SWAC, Lone Star, ASC, SAA, and Sooner Athletic Conferences.

Three weeks ago, the Blitz contained analytical data for each conference that houses a Texas university for football. There will be less analysis this time, but that’s because we’re introducing the data for the DII, DIII, and NAIA conferences.

I’m also including a new stat: the offensive and defensive sack percentage. Does it feel like your team is having difficulty stopping the pass rush or rushing the passer? Well, this data will help you figure out if your eyes are lying or if the offensive or defensive line is struggling in the passing game.

Unfortunately, the statistics needed to calculate the analytics are unavailable at the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference and NJCAA websites, so they will not be included.

Southland Conference

Stephen F. Austin continues to shine in the analytical data. Granted, some of that is due to a more manageable schedule than some, but the Lumberjacks have passed the eye test regarding talent on the field. The question for SFA is if they can avoid the costly turnovers and mistakes that set them back against McNeese. But they do have a nice new trophy named “The Chief.” 

A shoutout to Texas A&M-Commerce for making the right decision in proposing a name change to East Texas A&M, which will be considered by the Texas A&M System Board of Regents in November.

Southwestern Athletic Conference

The offenses in the SWAC have struggled. Some of that is caused by playing the money games against FBS opponents. However, I don’t see the offenses being too much better over the rest of the season due to the solid defensive play in the conference. Jackson State, Texas Southern, Grambling, and Prairie View A&M hold solid ratings despite playing challenging opponents.

United Athletic Conference

I spoke with multiple people last week in Abilene who mentioned the amount of parity in the UAC, and the data shows plenty of parity this year. Four teams are worthy of a playoff bid this season if their ratings hold, but only one is guaranteed, and an at-large bid will be difficult if you lose within the conference. At most, this appears to be a two-bid league this year, and that’s a shame.

Lone Star Conference

Yes, Angelo State’s defense is that good. The problem for the Rams is an offense that has been largely inept thus far in 2024. If the ASU offense can place 20 points a game on the board, they have a defense capable of winning championships. It’s unknown if CWU’s offensive line is that good because they’ve run the ball twice the amount they pass this year. I would, too, when averaging 5.5 yards per rush attempt.

American Southwest Conference

Brutal. That’s the only word to describe this conference. Three of these teams are playoff quality, and Howard Payne would undoubtedly fare better in a more manageable conference. However, the reality is these teams will play each other twice and pray they receive two bids when the playoff bracket is announced. Expect these numbers to change drastically over the next few weeks.

Southern Athletic Association

Many pundits thought Berry was the best team in the conference entering 2024, and they are proving to be correct. However, Centre is in the conversation this year, which will surprise some who expected the Colonels to finish behind Trinity. Unfortunately, this appears to be a difficult season filled with opportunities for the Tigers to learn.

Sooner Athletic Conference

Some of these teams' data is skewed by playing multiple money games, or they are struggling this season. However, Texas Wesleyan has played against NAIA competition each game. While the Rams have executed some blowouts in conference play, they look like a team primed to make their first playoff appearance since restarting football in 2017. That said, challenges remain, and a meeting with Louisiana Christian to conclude the regular season could be the deciding factor in the Rams playoff hopes.

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