Halfway through the season, the state of Texas has seven teams with legitimate conference championship hopes. Here's a ranking of the likelihood each of them actually does so.

In the Driver's Seat

1. Texas Longhorns

Texas is officially 5-0 but unofficially 6-0 after winning the bye week, watching two top-five SEC teams lose to unranked opponents for the first time in history, per The Athletic’s Matt Brown. The Longhorns are the conference’s only undefeated team and control their own destiny to the SEC Championship (34% chance to win conference) and College Football Playoff (91% chance for invite). 

But Texas’s breezy warmup to conference play, where the only real test was a Michigan team alternating through three quarterbacks, is over. The next three games are Oklahoma, Georgia, and then perhaps the scariest opponent, Vanderbilt. The Longhorns can afford a loss while remaining in pole position for the conference title.

2. Texas State Bobcats

Back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Sam Houston slammed the brakes on the Texas State hype train but did not derail it. The Bobcats are 1-0 in conference play and are still one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference. 

In one of the last conferences with divisions, Texas State is in a race with Louisiana and ULM to win the West. The Bobcats get over a week to prepare for both of them. They play Old Dominion on Oct. 19, then face Louisiana on Tuesday Oct. 29, before returning to the Saturday slate on Nov. 9, against ULM.

3. Sam Houston Bearkats

One year after starting its FBS tenure 0-8, Sam Houston has the most wins (5-1) in Conference USA. 

The Bearkats are on a bye before their next game, a massive matchup against Western Kentucky, which was a preseason conference favorite now playing without starting quarterback TJ Finley. This conference race, however, won’t be decided until the final two weeks of the season, when Sam Houston travels to Jacksonville State and then hosts 4-0 Liberty. There is a scenario where Sam Houston and Liberty face off to cap the regular season and then again in the Conference USA Championship.

Conference USA is weak - only three teams have a winning record. Sam Houston is more than capable of winning out.

Had Some Help  

4. SMU Mustangs

In the ACC, it’s Clemson and Miami and everyone else. But SMU is the leader of the pack in the best of the rest. Don’t hang a banner yet. The good news for the Mustangs is they miss both Clemson and Miami on the schedule. The bad news, Clemson and Miami don’t play each other either.

If all three teams went undefeated in conference play, Miami would be in the championship game while Clemson and SMU had a resume-off. The schools would have the same conference winning percentage and no head-to-head tiebreaker, which means the team who faced better conference opponents gets in. Clemson gets 3-3 Virginia Tech, 2-3 Wake Forest and a Grayson McCall-less NC State. SMU gets 5-1 Duke, 4-2 Boston College, and 3-2 Cal, an undoubtedly tougher draw.

So if SMU wins out, they’re in. If not, they’re honorary Louisville fans for the rest of the year when the Cardinals play Miami and Clemson.

5. Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M plays three of the SEC’s worst teams in the final half of the season in South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn. They also face LSU at home, and the Tigers’ 4-1 record is inflated with wins against 1-4 UCLA, Nicholls, South Alabama and a three-point win over South Carolina. 

Mike Elko’s squad can’t afford to look too far ahead, but we can! The season finale against Texas was already the most anticipated game of the season, but imagine the stakes it could have if both win out.

Time Will Tell

6. Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders aced a significant test on Saturday night, beating Arizona on the road (McGuire is now 4-9 on the road for those keeping track) and holding one of college football’s best wide receivers, Tetairoa McMillan, without a touchdown. Sure, McMillan got over 160 yards, but a secondary that got torched by Abilene Christian in Week 1 forced Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita into two interceptions. The stark improvement, and two trends bucked, puts Texas Tech in Big 12 contention.

Of the three teams with the best odds to win the Big 12 on FanDuel (Iowa State, Kansas State and Utah), Texas Tech only faces Iowa State. The Red Raiders also miss a salty BYU squad. Odds are, Texas Tech doesn’t go undefeated, but the Big 12 is too chaotic for any team to navigate unscathed.

7. North Texas Mean Green

North Texas is one of six FBS teams that rank in the top-15 in scoring, total and passing offense, per North Texas director of athletic communications Doug Waters. But the Mean Green are 4-1 because the defense has improved from national worst to simply lower third in the American Athletic Conference. 

North Texas isn’t out of the woods yet, however. In fact, it hasn’t even entered them. Memphis (4-1), Tulane (4-2) and Army (5-0) all remain on the schedule. Five teams are currently undefeated in AAC play. The Mean Green can only afford one, maybe, if they want to make the championship game. I predict they’re still a year away.