It's too early. It's too early. It's too early.

We're four weeks into the 2024 Texas high school football season, and we've learned a lot about the landscape of the sport. The preseason prognostications — at least, if you remove your own pride — should more-or-less be taken with a grain of salt and replaced by the actual, real, between-the-lines data that we have.

It's too early. It's too early. It's too early.

And with four weeks down and just 13 until we head to AT&T Stadium in Arlington...

It's too early. It's too early. It's too early.

...where we'll crown 12 UIL Texas high school football state champions...

Ugh. You're going to do it anyway, aren't you?

...I'm going to make my best guess on what teams we'll see at the 2024 state championship games. Some of these are the same that I've had since the beginning of the season, but others have seen some pretty significant shifts.

Let's dive in — I'll go from the smallest classification to the largest, just like the schedule will follow at the state championship games in December.

CLASS 1A DIVISION II
Jayton over Richland Springs
If anything, Jayton has been even more impressive than we thought they would, logging mercy-rule victories over state-ranked Division I teams like Westbrook, Klondike and Knox City. They look like the clear front-runner to bring home the title. Their opponent is a bit of a grab-bag, but I'm going with Richland Springs, though I'm not entirely sold on them quite yet, considering their four non-district opponents so far a combined 0-13 on the year. Cherokee and Oglesby are fully capable of snatching that spot in Arlington, though the Tigers' defense has me a touch concerned.

CLASS 1A DIVISION I
Gordon over Whiteface
I'm still riding with the Longhorns, though there's plenty of company on the Region III/IV side of the bracket with a surging May, a predictably rock-solid Abbott and a surpring Aquilla. On the other side, I'm think I'm fully bought in on Whiteface — the Antelopes own wins over Follett, Happy and Klondike, and Ethan Kauffman is the real deal in that running game. Westbrook lurks, and it's foolish to count out Homer Matlock's ballclub.

CLASS 2A DIVISION II
Muenster over Shiner
But Tepper, you're shouting at your screen, aren't those teams a combined 3-5 right now? Right you are, but a dive into the metrics reveal to me that these two teams are the most likely to make it to Arlington. Muenster sits at 2-2, but have super-competitive losses to Holliday and Pottsboro, two Class 3A squads with a combined 7-1 mark on the young season. Beyond that, their offense has been consistently excellent, making the Hornets a threat to win Region II and outscore Region I favorite Stratford in a potential semifinal. And as for Shiner, I'm very encouraged by the last two weeks, with a narrow loss to a state-ranked 3A team in Poth and a resounding win over 3A Vanderbilt Industrial. I think the Comanches are turning the corner, and that could lead them to AT&T Stadium.

CLASS 2A DIVISION I
Ganado over Stamford
Here's what I feel pretty good about: it'll be Region I vs. Region IV in the title game, as those feel like the power nexuses of 2A Division I. As far as who wins those regions? Good luck sorting that out. Stamford's my early favorite in Region I thanks to their spectacular defense, but Panhandle, Sunray and Hawley are all more than capable of winning it as well. And in Region IV? Ganado feels like it might be right back to its preseason No. 1 stature with the return of quarterback Bryce Ullman from injury, though Refugio was always going to be a hard out, and Mason and Marlin are surging into contention as well.

CLASS 3A DIVISION II
Gunter over East Bernard
Let's start with the big question: no, I'm not waving on Gunter despite two losses. They lost to a 5A team that played in a state championship game last season in Anna, and the No. 3 team in 4A Division I in Celina! I would like to see the offense find a little more juice, but the Tigers remain my favorite to win it all. But on the other side? I think I'm all-in on the Jeremy Jenkins transformation at East Bernard. The Brahmas have been wildly impressive to start the season, and have shown no signs of hiccups while transitioning from the Slot-T to the spread. I think the Brahmas have what it takes to make it to Arlington.

CLASS 3A DIVISION I
Columbus over Malakoff
This week, we leap-frogged Columbus over Malakoff for the No. 1 spot in the the DCTF/Associated Press rankings, and that's pretty reflective of how I feel. The Cardinals feel like a juggernaut right now, with former six-man star Grayson Rigdon bolstering an already loaded ballclub featuring quarterback Adam Schoebel. Malakoff isn't going anywhere, and their defense feels like it could be elite once again in support of quarterback Mike Jones, but for now, it's hard to see anyone slowing down Columbus.

CLASS 4A DIVISION II
Carthage over West Orange-Stark
After an early hiccup against a really good Kilgore team (more on them in a moment), the last two weeks for Carthage have steadied the ship, as the offense has come to life behind RB KJ Edwards and QB Jett Surratt. They look like the team to beat in 4A Division II. But who will they see there? Bellville's suddenly wobbling. Wimberley's a relatively sure bet out of Region IV, but they're running an infirmary. Waco La Vega and Sinton are intriguing, but I want to see what they do this week against Stephenville and Corpus Christi Miller, respectively. For now, I might go with Hiawatha Hickman's West Orange-Stark ballclub, which owns a neutral site win over La Vega, a road win over Newton and a victory over a very strong Bellaire Episcopal team. But the Region III/Region IV side of the bracket feels like a free-for-all.

CLASS 4A DIVISION I
Celina over Kilgore
I want to believe in Celina, because I've been wildly impressed with what they've done so far this season, pummeling Bellville, La Vega, Gunter and Franklin by a combined 110-point margin. There's only one more hurdle for them to clear this week — against No. 2 ranked district rival Frisco Panther Creek, which is their first 4A Division I opponent of the season — before I'm all in on the Bobcats. Kilgore's defense and physicality is something to behold, though I wonder if their offense has enough oomph to get them where they need to go. Austin LBJ is probably the chief challenger to that spot, though I'm not giving up on Tyler Chapel Hill quite yet.

CLASS 5A DIVISION II
Richmond Randle over Port Neches-Groves
I'm in. After Randle absolutely demolished Fort Bend Marshall last week, I'm in. They looked every bit the part of a state championship contender with running game, passing game and — most importantly — a light-out defense. Got to do it again this week against unbeaten Iowa Colony, but the Lions look ready for their close-up. Port Neches-Groves remains my pick to come out of the left side of the bracket, but we're about to find out a ton more about the Indians over the next two weeks — Montgomery Lake Creek, then at Huntsville — than we have in the first four weeks of the year combined. South Oak Cliff remains a huge threat to make it to the title game, as does Texas High.

CLASS 5A DIVISION I
Aledo over A&M Consolidated
Aledo's opening week loss to Denton Guyer is certainly an eyebrow-raiser, and I do think there's reason to believe the gap between the Bearcats and the field has narrowed. But picking anyone besides Aledo to win the 5A Division I title feels foolish. It's much more compelling on the right side of the bracket, where A&M Consolidated's monkey-off-the-back win over archrival College Station feels like an inflection point for the Tigers. Their defense has been lights-out, they're sound on special teams, and they're getting enough on offense. That could be enough to edge out College Station in a potential playoff rematch, and either Smithson Valley or San Antonio Pieper in a state semifinal.

CLASS 6A DIVISION II
DeSoto over Austin Westlake
This is more complicated than picking the best teams in each classification, since Class 6A isn't pre-split. We know DeSoto — which turned in a 5A enrollment but opted up — will be in the Division II bracket, and I still think they're the favorite to win a third straight title despite their loss to North Crowley. Is there room to improve, especially on the defense? Yes. But their weaponry is borderline unmatched, and that should be enough to get them back to Arlington. Southlake Carroll and Willis feel like the biggest threats to their throne before Arlington. Who they'll see there is an intriguing bit of projection — I think Austin Bowie and Lake Travis are likely to each make the playoffs out of District 26-6A, which would push Austin Westlake to the Division II bracket, where they'd enter as the favorite to win Region IV over the team they just beat (Cibolo Steele). Getting by Humble Summer Creek in a state semifinal would be tough, but quarterback Rees Wise and a maturing Tony Salazar-coached defense would be up for the task.

CLASS 6A DIVISION I
North Crowley over Humble Atascocita
Surprised? There's still a very good chance that this game ends up being Duncanville vs. North Shore Vol. VI, but as I sit right now in late September, this feels like the two finest teams in Class 6A, at least in the Division I bracket. North Crowley's win over DeSoto remains the single most impressive victory for any team in 2024, and they've followed it up with demolitions of good Denton Guyer and Rockwall teams to finish out a perfect non-district slate. Atascocita is probably the only team with a superior résumé to the Panthers, owning wins at Katy and at Austin Westlake in consecutive weeks. They're about to enter the grind of District 23-6A with matchups with North Shore (perhaps the first of two?) and Humble Summer Creek on deck. A lot can and will change between now and December, but if you ask me now, these are the teams I think will be teeing it up in Arlington for the final game of the season.