Dave Aranda went hat-in-hand to the Baylor brass with a proposal following the season-ending loss to West Virginia. He’d move back to a familiar role as defensive play-caller, hire an offensive coordinator with head coach experience and an innovative, exciting offense, and push for more investment in the NIL world to attract better Transfer Portal talent to Waco ahead of an all-important 2024 campaign.
Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades and the powers that be agreed and Aranda went to work. He hired Cal offensive coordinator and former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital to run Spav’s version of the Air-Raid offense he curated with mentor Kliff Kingsbury. Aranda also retreated to his mad scientist persona to fix a Bears defense that allowed more than 30 points per game in 2023.
“I’m probably not a better person when I’m not (completely locked in on the ball), but I’m a better coach,” Aranda said. “I’m back to ball all the time like in a previous life. When I’m at home, I’m watching film and drawing on my whiteboard. It kind of takes over your life.”
Aranda is an idealist. He’ll admit that one of his faults as a college football coach is that he prefers to see the world as it should be rather than for what it is. That’s hard in a college football landscape that cares more about results than process. And more about winning than growth. He sees taking 30 transfers as kicking 30 other players off the team.
The transactional nature of the sport in modern times forces Aranda to question his philosophy and approach. That introspection also hardens belief in what is right. Aranda’s Bears carry the motto, “Person Over Player.” Heading into 2024, Aranda wants those players to win for the person inside.
“It is very important to me to show that we can win while staying true to your beliefs and core principles,” Aranda said. “I want to see the guys who’ve stuck through it and kept belief in how we do things be rewarded. I want us to show that there is another way because we’ve lost the importance of how we do things when we only care about a means to an end.”
Winning won’t be easy in the Battle Royal known as Big 12 football. Gone are monolithic powers Texas and Oklahoma. In their place, a stable of solid and competitive programs like Utah arrive to compete in a crowded conference without a true favorite. Baylor knows how quickly fortunes can change. The Bears won two games in 2020 before a program-best 12 wins in 2021. Rival TCU won five games in 2021 before reaching the College Football Playoff in 2022.
“The margins are thin in this conference,” Aranda said. “There will be hard games on the road that require a tough team that handles adversity to win. We weren’t that the last two years. We’re working on getting back to that this season.”
Aranda is betting his future as the Baylor head coach on change. Spavital’s offense is the antithesis of what was run by former offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. The man who was once opposed to utilizing the Transfer Portal in fear that it would mess up the culture of his locker room brought in a dozen new faces, including Dequan Finn (Toledo) as the expected starter at quarterback. Instead of sitting in on offensive meetings and recruiting meetings or watching his guys in the weight room, he’s back drawing up plays on a white board and watching film deep into the night at home.
The goal is simple: Compete in the Big 12. Anything less might be the end of his tenure in Waco. Will it work? Only time will tell, but Baylor fans should rest easy knowing that the head coach is willing to do whatever it takes to prove that the Baylor way can still result in victories.
“No one wants to get this thing right more than me and the people in this building,” Aranda said. “We’ve done what it takes to win before. I’m confident we can find the recipe again.”
Baylor linebacker Matt Jones wasn’t the first college student to realize throwing up can help keep the party going. But not many experience that rite of passage on the sideline of an historic comeback win. Jones could feel his stomach turning in the fourth quarter of Baylor’s game at UCF in 2023. His Bears were in the midst of a furious comeback attempt after falling behind 35-7 midway through the third quarter.
“I was a little sick that week heading into the game and I was trying to keep from throwing up in the middle of the field,” Jones remembers with a smirk. “We played a lot of snaps defensively and that drive was long. I was tired, man.”
UCF led 35-26 and were driving to score the knockout blow against a Bears team that didn’t handle adversity well in 2023. Jones was about to barf. His team was about to fall to 1-4 on the season. And then a miracle happened: UCF fumbled and Baylor cornerback Caden Jenkins scooped it up and ran 72 yards for a touchdown with 6:02 left in the game. Jones chased Jenkins as adrenaline replaced nausea until he returned to the sideline, collapsed next to head coach Dave Aranda, and puked.
“I felt better right away,” Jones said. “I looked up at Coach Aranda and told him we were about to win this game.”
That’s exactly what happened. Isaiah Hankins hit a 25-yard field goal with 1:21 left to complete the largest comeback in program history. A win that temporarily saved Baylor’s season. Unfortunately, momentum is fleeting. Baylor lost the next week to drop to 2-5. The team was guaranteed a losing season by nightfall on Nov. 4 after losing in overtime to Houston at home.
Jones enters his final season in Waco on a mission to oversee Baylor’s return to glory. He played in all 14 games and started nine times on the 2021 squad that won the Big 12 and the Sugar Bowl. He’s also started 24 of the programs’ last 25 games while the Bears limped to losing seasons in 2022 and 2023.
“We replaced the bodies and production from the 2021 team, but not the leadership,” Jones said. “I’m trying to be a better vocal leader as a sixth-year player. I know that core leadership is what we’re missing. If we find it, we’ll surprise people because we’re more talented than we were in 2021.”
CEILING/FLOOR
Ceiling – 8-4
The fun part about the new-look Big 12 is that a wide range of results won’t shock any fan base. A team like Baylor could benefit from those fine margins with a solid run in 2024, especially if Dave Aranda’s defensive play-calling acumen solves issues on that side of the ball.
Floor – 3-9
Even changes in the staff and added help in the portal can’t solve every issue. Baylor has posted two straight losing seasons and were sub-.500 in three of the last four. While no game in the Big 12 is impossible for the Bears to win, no game is a slam dunk, either.
SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN
Baylor plays 10 Big 12 teams in 2024, but only nine of those contests count towards the conference standings. An existing home-and-home with new Big 12 member Utah caused the Week 2 trip to face the Utes to not count towards the conference standings. The Bears also play Tarleton State and Air Force in non-conference play. The official Big 12 slate consists of five home games – BYU, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia, and the regular season finale against Kansas. Baylor travels to Colorado on Sept. 21 to begin Big 12 play and will also visit Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Houston.
2023 SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT RESULT
Sept. 2 Texas State L, 42-31
Sept. 9 Utah L, 20-13
Sept. 16 Long Island W, 30-7
Sept. 23 Texas L, 38-6
Sept. 30 at UCF W, 36-35
Oct. 7 Texas Tech L, 39-14
Oct. 21 at Cincinnati W, 39-29
Oct. 28 Iowa State L, 30-18
Nov. 4 Houston L, 25-24 (OT)
Nov. 11 at Kansas State L, 59-25
Nov. 18 at TCU L, 42-17
Nov. 25 West Virginia L, 34-31
Record: 3-9 (2-7)
2024 PREDICTIONS
DATE OPPONENT RESULT
Aug. 31 Tarleton State W
Sept. 7 at Utah L
Sept. 14 Air Force W
Sept. 21 at Colorado L
Sept. 28 BYU W
Oct. 5 at Iowa State L
Oct. 19 at Texas Tech L
Oct. 26 Oklahoma State L
Nov. 2 TCU L
Nov. 16 West Virginia W
Nov. 23 at Houston W
Nov. 30 Kansas L
Record: 5-7 (3-6)
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