A college head coach shapes his program's identity.

So when Baylor hired Dave Aranda in 2020, the program molded to his image instead of Joey McGuire's. McGuire was Baylor's associate head coach at the time. When he wasn't selected for the head job, he spent the 2020 season coaching under Aranda. Then he moved to Texas Tech and built a staff with 11 guys who spent at least a year with him working in Waco. 

When Baylor hosts Texas Tech on Saturday night, they're peering through the looking-glass at what their program could have resembled had they picked McGuire.

A Baylor win justifies that decision. Yes, they already have a Big 12 Championship to back up the choice, but Aranda would also move to 2–0 vs McGuire after the Bears walked into Lubbock last year and demolished Texas Tech, 45-17. The Red Raiders would tumble to 2–4 in a year they were dark horse Big 12 title contenders. McGuire's road record as a head coach would crash to 1–7, opening the door to questioning if his jovial demeanor and the energy he's created at Texas Tech has any on-field substance in the short-term.

But a loss would make it feel, whether substantively right or wrong, that Baylor chose incorrectly. 

Because Texas Tech's scouting and recruiting department is full of former Baylor staffers loyal to their once-head coach, Matt Rhule, and his school of thought. James Blanchard, now Tech's general manager, was McGuire's first hire when he got the job. He chooses who Texas Tech offers and tells the position coaches who to recruit. Brian Nance, the director of player personnel, and Harrison Hanna, director of operations and recruiting, are also rising stars molded in their formative years by Baylor.  

Texas Tech has the highest-ranked recruiting class in the new-look Big 12 for 2024. Five-star wide receiver Micah Hudson is the highest-rated recruit in program history. But Tech's staff started building that relationship at Baylor when Nance offered Hudson his first in-state Power Five opportunity in Waco. Add four-star Hutto quarterback Will Hammond, and Texas Tech feels they're set up beautifully for the future.

Baylor's 2024 class is ranked 11th in the conference, currently. In last year's cycle, they had three four-star recruits decommit. Most notably, Dripping Springs quarterback Austin Novosad flipped his commitment to Oregon on Early National Signing Day. Novosad's connection with Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein was a big reason for that. But Division Street, Oregon's NIL collective backed by Nike founder Phil Knight, also played a part.

Texas Tech has the Matador Club, which pays all football players, including walk-ons, $25,000. If you're a stand-out player like quarterback Tyler Shough or wide receiver Jerand Bradley, you can sign more NIL deals to add to it. Texas Tech has a variety of financial backers, albeit none with the notoriety of Knight. Still, former player Cody Campbell, who co-founded Double Eagle Energy Holdings, is one of the many prominent oil and gas millionaires throughout the Permian Basin pumping money into the athletic program. The people with the cash want to invest it in Joey McGuire, as evidenced by the $230 million earmarked to renovate the South Endzone and erect a new football performance facility.  

Meanwhile, Baylor has been conservative in its NIL strategy. Seeing Tech's example, Startup Waco partnered with the Green and Gold Exchange to provide money to football players, although exact amounts have yet to be announced. But to be eligible for these payments, the players must participate in NIL education programming and personal workshops. Still, there's been a scarcity of NIL deals for specific Baylor football players. Part of that is because the Bears don't have a surefire first-round NFL Draft pick on their roster.

But perhaps there's been little hype around Baylor's NIL program partly because Dave Aranda isn't the boisterous campaigner that Joey McGuire is. That's no knock on Aranda. He's unrivaled as a defensive mind and is just stoic, even-keeled. And since he's compiled a 10–17 record outside of a 2021 Big 12 Championship season headlined by players Matt Rhule brought in, his long-term job security is more in question than McGuire, who's still in his second year.

Baylor already had a future head coach on staff and chose an outside hire. That outside hire needed 29 unanswered points last weekend to defeat an unranked UCF team on its backup quarterback and save the season. Win this game, and Aranda's team is back to .500 with a winning conference record and everything to play for. 

Lose, and fans might start asking questions about the long-term direction of this program.