The Blitz: Analyzing 2023 record projections for each Texas FCS team

Massey Ratings has released record projections for each Texas FCS team, including UMHB, Tarleton, Stephen F. Austin, UIW and Lamar.
Cory Hogue

Massey Ratings has released record projections for each Texas FCS team. Our Non-FBS insider analyzes each projection, with UIW expected to soar past most of its competition in 2023.

Kenneth Massey is a data and business analyst at NCAA Division II Carson-Newman. However, Massey is better known for his rating system used as part of the formula during the days of the Bowl Championship Series.

Massey quickly points out that his ratings are designed to measure past performance and not necessarily predict future outcomes. Nevertheless, projections for the 2023 season for each Texas FCS team are currently available at MasseyRatings.com. 

Since we’ve entered the month of June, now is a great time to analyze each record projection provided by Massey. Predictions are not currently available for any division lower than FCS. I will explore those predictions when they are released. 

Southland Conference

DCTF says: This seems like a great time to reiterate that these projections are based on past performance, which hasn’t been good for HCU. Braxton Harris enters his first season at the helm of the Huskies and has a team capable of winning three or four games in the SLC this year. The key will be if the new pieces gel before conference play begins.

  • Lamar - Massey projects 2-9 overall and 1-6 in SLC.

DCTF says: The Cardinals non-conference schedule is rather challenging outside of a home game against a Lincoln (Calif.) team known for playing opponents that desperately need a win. Lamar will likely open the season 1-3 but could pull off two or three wins in the SLC. The key is if new head coach Peter Rossomando can keep the team together after a difficult opening stretch.

DCTF says: This pains me to write, but three or more wins for the Lions this year would be a miracle, which is not an indictment of first-year coach Clint Dolezel, who will do very well at Commerce if given enough time. The fact remains that the Lions are entering year two of their transition to FCS, and this is when the depth chart begins to take a hit because players aren’t typically happy to spend three years without a chance at making the playoffs. Combined with a brutal schedule, 2023 could be a challenging year in Commerce.

  • UIW - Massey projects 10-1 overall and 7-0 in SLC.

DCTF says: Let’s pump the brakes on this one. UIW has undoubtedly earned every preseason ranking and honor it will receive. Still, this program has a new head coach for the third consecutive season and a roster that has seen a lot of turnover during the offseason. If any coach can lead the Cardinals to their third straight SLC title, it’s Clint Killough. Still, UIW will need to overcome numerous challenges for a three-peat.

Southwestern Athletic Conference

DCTF says: On the surface, this looks like a solid prediction. The Panthers have the talent to win as many as eight games this year. The problem is that PVAMU has struggled to play consistent football each week for the last couple of years. Head coach Bubba McDowell stressed consistency during spring practice. If successful, PVAMU could be in the SWAC championship game. If unsuccessful, then it’s anyone’s guess.

DCTF says: I’m far more bullish on the Tigers in 2023 than Massey’s computer model. Granted, TSU has four games that could easily end in a loss against FBS foes Toledo and Rice, along with SWAC games against Jackson State and Florida A&M. That said, the Tigers have improved every year under Clarence McKinney and have the depth to make a run this year. 7-4 isn’t out of the question, with 6-5 or 5-6 more likely.

United Athletic Conference

DCTF says: I can’t argue with this projection. Massey has ACU with wins against Northern Colorado, Prairie View A&M, North Alabama, Southern Utah, Utah Tech, and Tarleton, with losses at home to UIW and on the road against Central Arkansas, SFA, North Texas, and Texas A&M. I love what Keith Patterson is doing in Abilene. Still, six wins would be an outstanding season for the Wildcats.

DCTF says: This prediction also feels very accurate. The Lumberjacks could surprise people with 10 wins this year, but that will require wins at home against Austin Peay and on the road against Central Arkansas and Eastern Kentucky. Still, 7-4 overall and 4-2 in the UAC might earn SFA an at-large berth in the FCS playoffs.

  • Tarleton - Massey projects 3-8 overall and 1-5 in UAC.

DCTF says: I’ve become so used to the Texans being good under Todd Whitten that this projection surprised me. But this may be more accurate than I or Tarleton fans want to believe, and if so, the Texans will likely have a new head coach entering 2024. I think Tarleton finishes in the range of five or six wins, and that might not be enough to save Whitten’s job despite a successful transition to FCS.

Lone Star Conference

  • The College Football Network ranked the top DII offensive linemen in a series of posts on Twitter this week. UTPB’s Anthony Wright is the No. 19 ranked offensive guard, with Texas A&M-Kingsville’s Branon Jackson at No. 21. At guard, Angelo State’s Noah Plsek is slotted at No. 6, with TAMUK’s Troy Billman at No. 10. A trio of LSC centers made the list led by UTPB’s Maximus Johnson, while Will Kinyo of TAMUK is No. 12 and Jason McConahey of Angelo State is No. 13.

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