BIG School MEGA Preview: Regional Finals

Predictions and previews of the 2022 TXHSFB Regional Finals, including Prosper vs. Lewisville, Galena Park North Shore vs. Humble Atascocita, San Antonio Brennan vs. Austin Westlake and more.

Prosper (12-1) vs. Lewisville (12-1), 2 p.m. Saturday at McKinney’s McKinney ISD Stadium: Prosper and Lewisville have both been considered “good” teams in DFW the past few seasons, but it appears both have moved into the elite tier this season winning twelve of their first thirteen games. Prosper last week took down previously unbeaten North Crowley in a 35-21 slugfest, a key third quarter goal line stand when they led by just seven points was the difference for the Eagles along with QB Harrison Rosar who had a monster night throwing for 299 yards and five touchdowns. Lewisville blasted an overmatched Keller squad, taking the Indians down 43-3 with a dominant defensive effort. The Fighting Farmers, who are in the regional final for the first time since 1996 (when current HC Michael Odle was the QB), dominated on defense holding Keller to just 203 yards of offense. QB Ethan Terrell and RB Viron Ellison combined to run for 235 yards and four touchdowns as LHS outscored Keller 29-0 in the second half. Expect this game to be an absolute slugfest, two of the best defensive units in the DFW area (not named Duncanville) will slug it out. The very slight lean in this one is with Prosper, but this is really a coin flip game. Stepp’s Pick: Prosper by 2

Galena Park North Shore (13-0) vs. Humble Atascocita (11-2), 7 p.m. Friday at New Caney’s Randall Reed Stadium: It’s a 21-6A rematch in the Houston area as North Shore, who has won the region four straight years, takes on the team they’ve tormented the most during this run in Humble Atascocita. North Shore has won five straight over Atascocita, including wins in the playoffs in 2019 and 2021 and a three-point win in Week 9. If you are an Atascocita fan, you’ve got to feel good about things because AHS dominated pretty much every statistical category in that 16-13 regular season loss. North Shore has shown some vulnerability of late as the defense has allowed 28 and 34 points the last two weeks respectively. To be fair, in last week’s 49-28 win over Katy Cinco Ranch, the Mustangs defense did notch ten sacks, but the point totals have to be concerning. What isn’t concerning is the North Shore ground game as Rashaad Johnson and D’Andre Hardeman combined for 327 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Atascocita pulled away late for a 46-24 win over Fort Bend Ridge Point as QB Zion Brown accounted for 357 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while sophomore RB Tory Blaylock ran for 200 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Eagles. North Shore just hasn’t had the same dominance they had early in the year when they had a healthy Kaleb Bailey at QB and it’s really tough to beat a team twice in the same season, especially when the two teams appear as evenly matched as these two are. This may be the game that Atascocita breaks the skid and ends North Shore’s dominance in the Houston area, I’m going Atascocita in the upset. Stepp’s Pick: Humble Atascocita by 3

San Antonio Brennan (12-1) vs. Austin Westlake (13-0), 2 p.m. Saturday at San Antonio’s Alamodome: After getting totally dominated by Lake Travis and Austin Westlake the past few years, San Antonio Brennan took one back for the Alamo City last week as they knocked off Lake Travis in surprisingly dominant fashion 34-17. QB Ashton Dubose accounted for 165 yards of offense and five touchdowns and the Bears defense forced a pair of key turnovers in the win. They’ll get a chance to do the double this week as they take on three-time defending state champion Austin Westlake, the holders of the state’s longest winning streak at 53-games rolled past San Benito 44-7 last week in pretty dominant fashion. RB Jack Kayser ran for three first half-touchdowns to stake the Chaps to a big lead and the always stout Westlake defense pitched a shutout as San Benito’s only score came on a defensive touchdown. Brennan’s speed and skill talent will be a test for Westlake and this Westlake team certainly isn’t the dominant juggernaut last year’s team was, but Tony Salazar’s team just exudes confidence and it is warranted, they just know how to win. It’ll be a hostile environment inside of the dome on Saturday, but Westlake thrives in this role and that defense is still a force to be reckoned with. Stepp’s Pick: Austin Westlake by 15

Denton Guyer (13-0) vs. Southlake Carroll (13-0), 2 p.m. Saturday at Justin’s Northwest ISD Stadium: It’s the showdown of unbeaten teams we’ve been waiting on in Division II Region I as two of the state’s most explosive offensive attacks hook up. Guyer QB Jackson Arnold had another monster effort accounting for 316 yards of offense and three touchdowns rushing, while Trey Joyner ran for 134 yards and three touchdowns as Guyer took down Trophy Club Nelson 59-41.  Southlake Carroll got a big test last week from a game McKinney bunch, but the Dragons prevailed 42-35 as senior RB Owen Allen carried the day with 221 yards on the ground and four touchdowns, while sophomore QB Graham Knowles continues to progress as he threw for 347 yards and a pair of touchdowns as well. Denton Guyer’s defense the past two weeks has left a lot to be desired, granted they’ve played two really good offenses but Guyer will need to tighten things up on that side of the ball at some point. Carroll is fully capable of exploiting that and the Dragons are good enough on defense that if Guyer’s defense struggles, Carroll is capable of pulling off what most would consider a mild upset. I think Guyer finds a way, mainly because they have two bona fide studs in Arnold and Peyton Bowen, while Carroll has Allen and I don’t know if Carroll’s supporting cast can make up the difference. Stepp’s Pick: Denton Guyer by 7

DeSoto (11-2) vs. Killeen Harker Heights (12-1), 7 p.m. Friday at Baylor’s McLane Stadium: It’s a rematch of a first-round game a year ago when many people (self-included) though Harker Heights could pull off the upset. DeSoto ended any talk of that quickly as the Eagles rolled past HHHS to an eventual regional finals appearance, while this is Harker Heights’ first trip to the fourth round. DeSoto got off to a slow start last week in their 38-14 win over Tomball, but once the Eagles got going it was smooth sailing down in Pflugerville. WR Johntay Cook did plenty of damage with 128 yards receiving and two touchdowns, while QB DJ Bailey was again steady as they come as the junior threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Harker Heights raced past Spring Dekaney 63-35 last week as the Knights got the ground game going in a major way. Houston commit Re’Shaun Sanford and his sidekick, Aimeer Washington tallied 281 yards on the ground and seven rushing touchdowns to pace Harker Heights. The Knights ran out to a 42-7 lead before Dekaney added some window dressing scores late in the game. Harker Heights will have their chance to prove they can play with the big boys from DFW and they may push DeSoto this time, but the Eagles just are too dynamic and they’ve got guys who in big moments can make you pay. Stepp’s Pick: DeSoto by 10

Mansfield Timberview (13-0) vs. Longview (13-0), 7 p.m. Friday at Mesquite’s Memorial Stadium: Two of the last three unbeaten teams in 5A-Division I meet up at one of DFW’s great venues as Mansfield Timberview takes on the state’s number one team (and number one since the pre-season), the Longview Lobos. This is the second straight week Timberview has had to take on an undefeated team as the Wolves held off a late charge from Frisco Reedy in a 28-26 win last Friday afternoon. Timberview who led 21-0 early on and 28-13 halfway through the fourth quarter had to stop a Reedy two-point conversion to tie up the game to escape Pennington Field with the win. Jarvis Reed led a balanced Timberview ground game with 111 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns. Longview trailed early on last week against Port Arthur Memorial 7-0, then the Lobos ripped of 51 unanswered points to coast to a 51-7 rout. QB Jordan Allen was efficient in the passing game for Longview with 191 yards and three touchdowns on just eight completed passes, while RB Taylor Tatum added 103 yards on the ground and a touchdown along with a 35-yard touchdown reception as it was a balanced Longview attack. This Longview defense doesn’t get the headlines of the offense, but they are playing outstanding football and setting the offense up for success time and time again. Longview again flexes their muscle this week against a very good Timberview team. Stepp’s Pick: Longview by 18

College Station (11-2) vs. Smithson Valley (12-1), 2 p.m. Saturday at Pflugerville’s The Pfield: College Station has had their up’s and down’s this year but they are back playing for a regional title for the second straight year and they’ll face a stiff test in a big and physical Smithson Valley squad. College Station avenged a regular season loss to Georgetown last week with a dominant 52-28 win, as two-way playmaker Tony Hamilton ran for three touchdowns on the ground and also notched an interception on the defensive side of the ball as well. Overall, College Station rolled up 347 yards on the ground and five total touchdowns. Smithson Valley jumped on potent Fulshear early and then held off a couple of rallies as the Rangers left Seguin with a 31-13 win. QB Chase Senelick tallied 227 yards of offense and four total touchdowns to lead the Rangers, but his status for this week is in question after he left the game in the second half with an injury. What isn’t a question is Smithson Valley’s defense that forced three turnovers and held one of the state’s most dynamic offensive attacks to just thirteen points. Defense travels and Smithson Valley’s got the defense to take them possibly to a state championship. Stepp’s Pick: Smithson Valley by 6

Corpus Christi Veterans Memorial (11-2) vs. PSJA North (13-0), 6 p.m. Saturday at Corpus Christi's Buccaneer Stadium: If you are looking for the best atmosphere in the state this week for a game, Corpus Christi is the place for you as a massive crowd is expected for this one. Corpus Christi Veterans Memorial is looking for their second Region IV title in three years after they went down to the Rio Grande Valley and dominated McAllen 49-14. The Eagles were balanced on offense as Jaiden Castaneda and Luke Moya each topped 100 yards of offense and a rushing touchdown, while QB Eli Durette threw for 198 yards and two touchdowns in the win. PSJA North also went on the road last week and the Raiders were dominant in a 35-15 win over Brownsville Veterans Memorial. QB Ale Aparicio was dynamic in leading the PSJA North offensive attack tallying three total touchdowns, but it’s the Raiders depth and size in the trenches that really makes them a unique team for the Rio Grande Valley as they can match up with just about anyone up front. No team from the Valley has made the state semifinals since Port Isabel went on their magical run in 2003, I think even on the road this is the year for PSJA North. Stepp’s Pick: PSJA North by 4

South Oak Cliff (10-3) vs. Melissa (11-2), 7:30 p.m. Friday at Arlington’s Choctaw Stadium: Defending state champion South Oak Cliff hasn’t made things easy on their fans the past two weeks as after nearly losing a massive lead in the fourth quarter of their area round playoff win over Lovejoy, the Golden Bears needed overtime last week to take out Midlothian Heritage 33-27. Texas A&M commit Jayvon Thomas, who missed the entire regular season again had a big night rushing for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the win, but turnovers came back to bite SOC last week as the Golden Bears were minus two in turnovers and their vaunted defense allowed 420 yards of offense. Melissa rolled past Terrell 42-21 last week, it was the Cardinals second win this year over their district rival. QB Trever Ham threw for 306 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Melissa offense and the Cardinals defensive line led by Nigel Smith, a four-star recruit dominated up front to contain the Terrell ground attack. SOC is going to play the role of favorite, but Melissa is a unique challenge because they may actually be able to match South Oak Cliff up front and they have enough speed at the skill spots to keep up. I’m taking the defending champs in this one, but the tough matchup and some injury concerns have me putting this one on upset alert. Stepp’s Pick: South Oak Cliff by 2

Fort Bend Marshall (12-1) vs. Port Neches-Groves (11-2), 7 p.m. Friday at Galena Park’s Galena Park ISD Stadium: It’s a district rematch as Fort Bend Marshall, fresh off a dominant 55-18 win over previously unbeaten Montgomery Lake Creek, must now try and knock off a really good Port Neches-Groves squad for the second time this season. The two teams played in late September with Marshall coming away with a 35-14 win. In last week’s win QB Jordan Davis had a monster night with 325 yards passing and five touchdowns and 115 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Port Neches-Groves held Brenham at arm’s length last week in a 38-28 win, Isaiah Nguyen led the way for PNG in the victory powering to 147 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, while Shea Adams added 97 yards on the ground and two scores for the Indians. They say it’s tough to beat a team twice in the same year, but when you have the speed and physicality on defense that Fort Bend Marshall has, you can do special things. Stepp’s Pick: Fort Bend Marshall by 8

 

Quick Picks

Duncanville (12-0) vs. Spring Westfield (12-1), 3 p.m. Saturday at Georgetown’s Georgetown ISD Stadium Stepp’s Pick: Duncanville by 31

Katy (13-0) vs. Houston C.E. King (9-4), 7 p.m. Friday at Houston’s NRG Stadium Stepp’s Pick: Katy by 23

Austin Vandegrift (12-1) vs. Dripping Springs (12-1), 7 p.m. Friday at Cedar Park’s Gupton Stadium Stepp’s Pick: Austin Vandegrift by 2

Burleson Centennial (12-1) vs. Aledo (11-2), 2 p.m. Saturday at Frisco’s Ford Center Stepp’s Pick: Aledo by 14

Abilene Wylie (10-3) vs. Argyle (13-0), 7 p.m. Friday at Stephenville’s Memorial Stadium Stepp’s Pick: Argyle by 11

Liberty Hill (12-1) vs. Corpus Christi Flour Bluff (10-3), 7 p.m. Friday at San Antonio’s Farris Stadium Stepp’s Pick: Liberty Hill by 15

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